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today i will share the [2024 bond market investment outlook report under the new macro paradigm] report producer: shanghai finance and development laboratory & wanbo investment

reviewing the first half of this year, the domestic capital market as a whole continued the "stable + risk aversion" investment style. bonds and bond-like assets are favored by investors, and the yield of government bonds continues to hit new lows, while the stock market has fallen into a weak state again after a brief rebound after the spring festival. in the overseas market, the main line of asset performance of "inflation + confrontation + technological progress" remains clear. although the inflation data in the second quarter slowed down, the hawkish stance of federal reserve officials still had a certain inhibitory effect on the market's expectations of easing, and the us dollar index remained at a high level. after the covid-19 pandemic, the reconstruction of the international order, the rise of national protectionism, and the intensification of regional economic and security competition have caused supply shocks to the global industrial chain, resulting in the accelerated flow of funds to safe assets such as gold with "risk aversion attributes + supply resilience". at the same time, the rapid development of artificial intelligence has also brought a new round of technological revolution to global productivity. although the risk-free interest rate is still high, the technology giants in the us stock market have achieved significant gains with strong earnings expectations.

since the second quarter, global economic growth has shown signs of slowing down again, and the us economic outlook has played a leading role in the global market. it is expected that high interest rates will continue to suppress economic growth, fiscal support will weaken, and excess savings will gradually be exhausted, which may push the us economy into a downward cycle. although the economic cycle is changing, the pricing of risks by various assets is not sufficient, and the fragility of the market in a high interest rate environment is obviously underestimated. the current risk premium level of us stocks is low, reflecting the high valuation of us stocks and taking into account too many optimistic expectations. with the approaching of the fed's interest rate cut cycle, the performance of the commodity market in the first half of the year was greatly affected by funds and sentiment, taking into account too many expectations of global economic recovery, and the valuation was at a relatively high level. once the overseas economic cycle goes down in the second half of the year, it may be beneficial to us bonds, but it also increases the adjustment risk of commodities and stocks.