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recently, the united states and taiwan have taken new actions around the theme of blocking the people's liberation army.the us air force organized an exercise codenamed "bamboo eagle 24-3" in the western pacific, focusing on testing the so-called "agile combat deployment". the taiwan military recently threatened to build at least five major camps in tainan, kaohsiung, pingtung, taitung and other places to deploy shore-based "harpoon" anti-ship missile systems purchased from the united states to "deter" pla warships.

rather than saying that this is a collusion between the united states and taiwan, it is more accurate to say that it is led by the united states and carried out by the taiwan military, and the "taiwan independence" armed forces are more like supporting roles.the taiwan military, which has long been in a dominated position, has no say in strategic and tactical arrangements. it has long been placed by the united states at the forefront of the "first island chain" and in a position that would suffer the greatest casualties if a conflict breaks out.the u.s. air force exercises and taiwan’s missile base construction appear to be taking place simultaneously, implying “internal and external coordination,” but there are significant logical flaws.

"agile combat deployment" is a response plan proposed by the us air force in 2017 to deal with the missile system threats from rivals such as china and russia. it intends to change the traditional mode of concentrated deployment of large-scale fleets at large airports and instead deploy them in more and more dispersed small airports or temporary airports.simply put, it is to "break the whole into parts" to enhance the resilience of the us air force combat system.

however, unlike the us fighter jets that can be maneuvered at any time, the missile bases built by the us on the orders of the taiwan military are fixed targets that cannot be moved. in the current context of almost complete transparency of the military deployment on the island, it is difficult for these bases to achieve unexpected strike effects.there is a high possibility that they will be "targeted" one by one by long-range firepower before they pose a threat to the pla warships.

what’s worse is that many of the bases are very close to residential areas, which directly increases the probability of civilians being accidentally affected in the conflict, which has also led to constant protests from the people on the island.from the locations of the five major camps that the taiwan military has recently hyped, it can be seen that most of them are located in counties and cities governed by the democratic progressive party. this shows that the dpp authorities have long anticipated public protests, but they believe that the people in the "iron vote area" are easier to appease, so they start with the "die-hard fans".

for the u.s. military, increasing the number of missile bases on the island means increasing the number of targets for the people's liberation army to attack, which will increase the cost of the attack. at the same time, it can also buy time for the u.s. military to respond in a timely manner and give full play to the advantages of "agile combat deployment"in fact, in addition to the air force, the u.s. navy, army and marine corps have also proposed similar concepts such as "distributed lethality concept", "multi-domain task force" and "expeditionary forward base operations" in recent years, focusing on "running fast".

however, even if this tactic intends to disregard the safety of life and property of the people on the island and completely regard the taiwan military as "human shields" and "cannon fodder", it may not work as the us military wishes in actual combat. for the pla, there is not much difference in technology between concentrating firepower to attack a large-scale fleet at a large airport and attacking multiple small-scale fleets at the same time.in terms of strike effect, it can also achieve complete removal in a short time.

in addition to underestimating the capabilities of potential opponents, the us military strategy has another more realistic dilemma, which is the arrival rate of arms sales to taiwan.in july this year, kuomintang legislator luo zhiqiang questioned that the 32 systems and 128 shore-based "harpoon" missiles purchased by the taiwan military from the united states were originally expected to be delivered in 2026, but from public information from the us side, it can be seen that this contract signed in 2020 is not expected to be completed until march 2029.

taiwan's defense department responded by saying that it had "requested the us to deliver the equipment as scheduled." this response only expressed taiwan's position, without answering the questions raised by the legislators, nor did it discuss the us's attitude and the actual progress of the relevant orders, which was equivalent to tacitly acknowledging that the equipment delivery would be delayed.by then, even if the dpp authorities build the missile base as scheduled, they will still face the embarrassment of having a base but no missiles.

for a long time, the united states has relied on its military hegemony to bully the world.however, in the taiwan strait region and the wider waters surrounding china, the u.s. military’s capabilities have long been unable to support its ambitions.whether it is tactical adjustments such as "agile combat deployment" or forcing allies such as japan, south korea, and the philippines to provide land, money, and manpower to share the cost, the so-called new concepts and new tactics of the united states are in fact retreating.

after all this trouble, the united states should ask itself:is the united states more in control of the situation in east asia, thousands of miles away from its own territory, or is it more powerless? has the confidence of its allies in the united states' ability to win increased or decreased?

facts have proven that the discourse power that the united states has seized through military hegemony is rapidly diminishing. returning to the major themes of peace and development and following the trend of the times of communication and cooperation is the right path.attempting to create a "new cold war", "small circle" or "using taiwan to contain china" will only lead the united states to suffer a more profound defeat.both the us and the dpp authorities should see this clearly.