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[global times special correspondent zhen xiang] boeing of the united states released its latest "commercial market outlook" on the 27th. the report predicts that by 2043, the size of china's civil aviation fleet will more than double to 9,740 aircraft. the company predicts that china is expected to become the world's largest air travel market and will also have the world's largest wide-body fleet. many foreign media have paid attention to this and reported it under the title "china's tourism boom will double the demand for aircraft."

boeingit is estimated that in the next 20 years, china will need to add 8,830 new aircraft, of which about 40% will be replacements for old aircraft, and the remaining 60% will be new aircraft purchased by airlines to meet passenger flight needs. among these new aircraft needs, 1,575 are wide-body aircraft.

"china's passenger and cargo civil aviation market will continue to expand, driven by economic growth and airlines' continued construction of domestic route networks," said darren hoskins, vice president of boeing commercial marketing, in a statement. boeing predicts that china's annual passenger growth rate will exceed 5.9%, higher than the global average growth rate of 4.7%.

it is worth noting that the latest forecast data has increased compared with the previous report, which also reflects boeing's further optimism about the potential of the chinese market. in may this year, boeing china president jean liu said in an interview with the media that boeing regards the chinese market as a "top priority" and is optimistic about the growing demand in the chinese market in the next 20 years.

previously, the global aviation services market forecast released by european aircraft manufacturer airbus also showed that china is expected to become the world's largest aviation services market in the next 20 years.

according to cirium, an aviation industry analysis company, chinese airlines have restored 89% of their 2019 international capacity this year. the 2023 civil aviation industry development statistical bulletin released by the civil aviation administration of china in may this year shows that in 2023, the industry will complete 619,576,400 passenger trips, an increase of 146.1% over the previous year. by the end of 2023, the number of registered transport aircraft in the civil aviation industry will be 4,270, an increase of 105 from the end of last year. among them, there are 473 wide-body passenger aircraft and 3,276 narrow-body passenger aircraft.

boeing also said it expects china's cargo fleet to nearly triple, driven by its growing e-commerce industry, adding that the chinese aviation market will require $780 billion worth of aviation services and nearly 430,000 new employees to support the growing fleet, according to barron's.

"the troubled aircraft manufacturer has been struggling to turn things around after a series of quality and production problems." boeing's orders reportedly plummeted 70% year-on-year in the first half of this year. data shows that boeing delivered a total of 22 aircraft to chinese airlines between the beginning of 2024 and april 30. in july, boeing just restarted the delivery of its 737 max model to china. barron's believes that this latest forecast of the booming chinese aviation market may open the door to new orders for boeing.