Bangladesh: Behind the 'South Asian miracle' are 'daunting challenges'
2024-08-15
한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina
Our correspondent in Pakistan Cheng Shijie and our reporter Chen ZishuaiEditor's note: "Bangladesh now has a place among developing countries. But I tell you with unspeakable sorrow that today, all of this has turned to ashes." On August 13, former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said this in her first public statement after her resignation. Bangladesh, once known as a "bottomless basket", has actually maintained quite good economic growth for many years. Because of its important geographical location, Bangladesh has also become the object of cooperation for some major powers, and its international status has been continuously improved. At the same time, the country has experienced dozens of coups since independence, and public dissatisfaction has risen. So, what is the reason for the continuous political turmoil in this country once known as the "South Asian Miracle"? What impact will the changes in Bangladesh have on the regional situation?From structural problems to deep political divisions"We bear all the pain and suffering of losing our loved ones, and with such memories, the only purpose is to bring smiles to the faces of the suffering people of Bangladesh." In a statement issued on the 13th, Hasina used her own experience of losing her parents, brothers and other relatives in the coup on August 15, 1975, to try to express her sympathy for the Bangladeshi people who lost their loved ones in the recent national turmoil. She said that the positive results of the previous efforts of the people and the government have begun to emerge, but they have been "turned to ashes" due to the recent riots.Hasina's statement about Bangladesh's achievements is not without basis. According to media reports such as Bangladesh's Daily Star and Japan's Nikkei Asian Review, this country, which gained independence in 1972, was once called a "bottomless basket" by Henry Kissinger, then-US President Nixon's national security adviser in the 1970s. Since independence, Bangladesh has been "famous for tragedy", including "painful poverty" and natural disasters.However, after decades of development, the country has been hailed as the "South Asian miracle". Over the past 50 years, Bangladesh has undergone a remarkable economic transformation, from one of the world's poorest countries to a lower-middle-income country in 2015. Today, the country's economy is worth more than $440 billion, and it is expected that Bangladesh will exit the United Nations' list of least developed countries by 2026. After independence, Bangladesh's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) was less than $100, but in fiscal year 2022, this figure jumped to $2,688. According to the World Bank, Bangladesh's per capita GDP grew by 285% from 2009 to 2022. During the same period, India's per capita GDP grew from $1,097 to $2,411, a growth rate of 120%. Whether in terms of growth rate or absolute value, Bangladesh's economic development is significantly better than that of major countries in South Asia.Bangladesh has almost achieved food self-sufficiency for its 171 million people. In addition, Masood, a scholar at the University of Malaya in Malaysia, wrote in the Dhaka Tribune of Bangladesh that from 2000 to 2016, the proportion of Bangladesh's population living below the national poverty line dropped from 48.9% to 24.3%, which means that more than 20.5 million people have escaped poverty. Data from the World Bank shows that the life expectancy of Bangladeshis has increased from 46 years in 1972 to around 74 years in 2022."Friendly foreign policy: a catalyst for Bangladesh's economic development." Pandey, a professor at the Department of Public Administration at Rajshahi University in Bangladesh, previously wrote in the Dhaka Tribune that since independence, the foreign policy followed by the Bangladeshi government has been based on the concept of "being friendly to everyone and having no malice towards anyone." Bangladesh has handled thorny international relations through diplomatic means, maintained friendly relations with major powers, and promoted economic growth. Bangladeshi companies have improved local capabilities in many areas through cooperation with Chinese companies. Because of the GSP treatment, Bangladeshi goods can enter the European market duty-free. As the main source of foreign exchange, the export of labor to the Middle East has helped Bangladesh's economy flourish. Bangladesh has also cleverly used foreign aid and development initiatives to improve its economic prospects.However, many media and research institutions have warned that behind Bangladesh's good economic data are daunting challenges, including structural problems and deep political divisions. The Royal Institute of International Affairs in the UK previously published an article stating that the structural economic challenges facing Bangladesh include high inflation (9.73% in the 2023-2024 fiscal year, the highest level since the 2011-2012 fiscal year) and the country's heavy reliance on exports. India's First Post and other media recently stated that Bangladesh's garment manufacturing industry accounts for 83% of its total export revenue. The industry has solved the employment of about 4 million people, 75% of whom are women. The garment manufacturing industry relies on exports and is extremely vulnerable to external shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have worsened the external economic environment facing Bangladesh.Bangladesh's youth unemployment rate is also worrying. According to the Royal Institute of International Affairs, one-fifth of the country's 18-24-year-old population, or 18 million people, are neither working nor continuing their education, which has led to the quota system for civil service positions becoming the fuse for the country's recent unrest.Sajjad, an expert on Bangladesh at the School of International Service at American University, told Australia's Dialogue News Network that the recent political turmoil in this South Asian country has a broader political background. Under Hasina's rule, Bangladesh has achieved economic growth, but this has not translated into the well-being of the wider population. Liu Zongyi, director of the South Asian Research Center at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, believes that the main contradiction in Bangladesh at present is the contradiction in the distribution of interests between a few commercial and industrial interest groups and the general public of Bangladesh.Important location and outstanding geopolitical significanceOver the decades, not only Bangladesh's economy but also the country's international status has experienced ups and downs, all of which stem from its unique geographical location.Bangladesh is located in the northeast of the South Asian subcontinent on the alluvial delta of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. It borders India to the east, west and north, Myanmar to the southeast and the Bay of Bengal to the south. According to the Daily Star, five Indian states share a 4,000-kilometer border with Bangladesh, so the latter has the potential to promote greater integration between northeastern and central India, which is one of the reasons why India pays special attention to Bangladesh. In addition, Bangladesh is a natural link between South Asia and Southeast Asia, so any regional coordination between the two trade groups, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, must include Bangladesh.Bangladesh has three of the 12 ports in the Bay of Bengal, namely Chittagong, Mongla and Payara. The US website "Foreign Policy" said that Bangladesh's geographical location in the Bay of Bengal makes it geopolitically significant. American geopolitical scholar Kaplan believes that the "global power structure will emerge in the Indian Ocean" in the 21st century. As a country on the coast of the Indian Ocean, Bangladesh provides an important springboard for other countries to expand their networks in South Asia and the Indian Ocean."Bangladesh is becoming increasingly important in the Indo-Pacific region." According to Bangladesh's Daily Star and other media reports, Bangladesh has become the focus of the Indo-Pacific strategies of the United States, India, Japan, Australia and other countries because of its important geographical location."The United States hopes that Dhaka will become part of its Indo-Pacific strategy." The Dhaka Tribune reported that in January 2023, Rear Admiral Laubach, senior director for South Asian affairs at the US National Security Council, and Donald Lew, assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs at the US State Department, visited Bangladesh and held a series of talks with officials from the country. Laubach also expressed his hope that Dhaka would join the US Indo-Pacific strategy. In October 2020, then US Deputy Secretary of State Biegun invited Bangladesh to join the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" mechanism between the United States, Japan, India and Australia. Biegun stressed that Bangladesh will be one of the focuses of Washington's work in the Indo-Pacific region.Bangladesh practices a balanced diplomacy, which has led the United States to try to use the "stick of democracy" to make Dhaka obey. In December 2021, the United States imposed sanctions on the Rapid Action Battalion, an elite paramilitary force of Bangladesh, and its officers, etc., on the grounds that they "violated human rights." After the recent riots in Bangladesh, some US lawmakers urged sanctions against former Bangladeshi government officials. Hasina said recently that the reason she was driven out was that she refused to hand over St. Martin Island to the United States, thus preventing the United States from "gaining strategic advantages in the Bay of Bengal."Japan is also wooing Bangladesh. According to a report by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun in April 2023, Japan has accelerated its aid to Bangladesh in the past decade. Since 2015, Japan has provided Bangladesh with a total of 1.65 trillion yen (about 80.2 billion yuan) in loans over the past seven years. Japan aids Bangladesh, first for the Bangladeshi market, and second to curb the expansion of China's influence, and related arrangements are underway. The Kishida Fumio government previously proposed to use the Matarbari Port, which is scheduled to be put into use in 2027, as the entrance and exit from northeastern India to the Bay of Bengal to build a new industrial value chain.Due to historical and geographical reasons, India pays more attention to Dhaka than any other country. In 2017, 2021 and 2022, the leaders of the two countries signed dozens of cooperation agreements and memorandums of understanding during their mutual visits. Deutsche Welle once bluntly stated that India is "fawning" on Bangladesh. The media quoted analysts as saying that India's attention to Bangladesh is driven by three key goals, including making Dhaka the center of India's "Act East" policy, cooperating in curbing radical forces in the region, and curbing China's influence.The situation in Bangladesh has changed. Is India the biggest loser?On the evening of August 8, the interim government of Bangladesh, led by economist Yunus, was sworn in in Dhaka. "Can the interim government lead Bangladesh out of the 'dark ages'?" Qatar's Al Jazeera said that many people are skeptical. Some analysts say that one of the main challenges facing the interim government of Bangladesh is to maintain law and order. The country has been in chaos recently. The houses of members of the People's Alliance led by Hasina have been attacked. The houses of a minority of Hindus who are considered to be close to Hasina have also been attacked sporadically. The police are generally absent, and students recently managed traffic on busy streets in Dhaka. Experts also lack a clear understanding of whether the interim government must hold elections within 90 days of taking office.Al Jazeera and other media outlets believe that India is likely to be the biggest loser in Bangladesh's political turmoil. New Delhi has a close relationship with the Bangladesh Awami League and has even been described as "putting all its eggs in the party's basket." After the situation in Bangladesh has changed, India needs to re-engage with other political forces in Dhaka, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which hopes to come to power. At the same time, India will have to worry about some security risks, including growing anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh and the possibility of a cross-border influx of refugees. On a larger scale, India's influence in the surrounding region is waning.What impact will the regime change in Bangladesh have on the entire US Indo-Pacific strategy? In an interview with Bangladeshi media, Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute of the Wilson Center, a US think tank, said that in the short term, the uncertainty left by Hasina's sudden resignation has affected the US Indo-Pacific strategy because the US and its allies do not understand the strategic direction of the next government. The Hasina government previously issued the "Indo-Pacific Outlook" document, which cleverly balanced the interests of many countries in the Indo-Pacific region, and it is still unknown what plans the Bangladesh interim government has in this regard.Kugelman believes that Bangladesh's status as a field of great power competition will not change, and countries such as the United States and India have strong incentives to participate and maintain their influence in Bangladesh. Dhaka will welcome such engagement - although it will face the same dilemma as the Hasina government, that is, how to become a non-aligned country in the context of intensified great power competition.Xie Chao, associate researcher at the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University, also told the Global Times that the current political situation in Bangladesh is turbulent, and the relationship between the United States and India on regional affairs is becoming increasingly delicate. After the Hasina government steps down, if the opposition can take power and quickly stabilize the situation, it will help the United States expand its political influence in South Asia. However, in this case, the Bangladesh opposition will also face fierce competition from India and pro-Hasina political factions in Bangladesh. The US and India's interference in Bangladesh's internal affairs will inevitably arouse nationalist sentiment in Bangladesh. This anti-Indian and anti-American nationalist sentiment may trigger stronger interference from the United States and India. Bangladesh's relatively stable economic development environment will inevitably take a long time to recover. ▲
