2024-08-13
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Recently, Ukraine's attack on Russia's Kursk Oblast may have three military purposes. The first point is that through such an attack, Ukraine shows that it has the ability to hold its position when defending and counterattacking, and can also strike the opponent's territory or targets. That is, its military capability is still relatively strong, and it wants to show its military strength. This is the first point. The second point is that through such offensive operations, the Russian army, at present, on the battlefield of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, slows down its offensive momentum, or even shrinks its forces to defend, that is, to defend targets within its own territory and its own borders, so as to reduce the pressure on the Ukrainian army in other directions. This is the second point. The third point is to use such active attacks or operations to giveNATOLook, since Ukraine is not only able to defend but also to attack, then as a logistical support and supply, NATO should provide Ukraine with more military equipment and military assistance. Only in this way can it support the current battlefield of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and further consume Russia.
At least from the current point of view, the Ukrainian army's surprise attack has such a military purpose. From the current point of view, this purpose has not yet been achieved, because as Russia, it may not have thought that the Ukrainian army would suddenly attack in the direction of Kursk Oblast and suddenly attack it in depth. So for him, he was unprepared or unprepared, so some officers and soldiers were captured on the battlefield, some houses were damaged, and some civilians were injured. This is a reality.
Of course, as a military defense, Russia immediately mobilized its Northern Army Group and reserve personnel to immediately plug this hole, that is, this gap. After all, it has a depth of more than ten kilometers, less than 20 kilometers in depth, and a battlefield width. This gap was immediately plugged, which prevented the Ukrainian army from continuing to advance. Another thing is to surround the Ukrainian army from several directions, except for the west. This formed a situation that if the Russian army blocked the pocket, or blocked the Ukrainian army's retreat, then these Ukrainian troops might be annihilated in Russia. This problem depends on whether Ukraine can continuously deliver troops, equipment, and supplies to its front-line troops. This is the current situation.
Another thing is that Russia did not slow down its offensive in other directions because of the Ukrainian army's offensive. Instead, it got an excuse or reason to continue to intensify its offensive, because Medvedev made a speech on this matter. He said that since Ukraine can attack Russia's territory, although it only fought for more than ten kilometers, Russia can also launch an offensive from the border line of the current battlefield to the depth of Ukraine, or even attack Kiev. That is, since Ukraine can attack more than ten kilometers into Russia's territory, the Russian army can also advance more than ten kilometers, or even hundreds of kilometers, into Ukraine from the battlefield.
Because he said that he would attack in the direction of Kiev. If the Ukrainian army cannot hold it, he will now attack and occupy the Russian territory, the Kursk region. Assuming he cannot hold it for a long time, and the Russian army is advancing, whether it is to the east or the south, if he launches an attack, the territory he occupies can be defended. If he holds it, his territory will be larger, and in future negotiations, his bargaining chips will not be reduced, but increased.
If the Ukrainian army cannot defend this occupied territory, this area, that is, the Kursk area, what will happen? After you are driven out by others, it hurts their will from the perspective of combat, because after all, they have arrested Russian personnel, or they have gained or lost in the offensive, but this is short-term, and if Russia continues to attack forward, it is an occupation-style method, or a combat style, then it will cut off one of its fingers, because you hurt them, because you come out again, fight out, then if Russia attacks, it may occupy that area, that is to cut off Ukraine's fingers. And it may not be just one finger, but several fingers, because they are attacking in several directions. So from a strategic perspective, this result is not worth the loss in the long run or in terms of future development.
Another point is that you should not think that NATO will provide more weapons and equipment to Ukraine, or speed up the provision of weapons and equipment, because from the perspective of NATO's response to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it hopes to use Ukraine's troops and NATO's equipment to consume Russia. It has such a purpose and will not directly end, because it knows that directly engaging in battle with the Russian army means the outbreak of a larger-scale conflict, and it may triggerNuclear War, it does not want to be directly involved, so it is still a possibility of watching the fire from the other side. So from the perspective of this surprise attack by the Ukrainian army, from a local perspective, it was successful and achieved its goal, but from the perspective of the development of the entire war situation and future military operations, it is obviously not worth the loss.