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Text/Qi Ran

Editor/Qi Fei

As the war between Russia and Ukraine reached a stalemate, a cross-border combat operation by Ukraine attracted global attention.

On August 12, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin convened a meeting to discuss the situation in Kursk Oblast. Since August 6, Ukrainian troops have crossed the border of Sumy Oblast in northeastern Ukraine and entered the neighboring Russian Kursk Oblast, occupying Russian territory.

At the meeting, Putin called the ongoing Russian counterattack an "anti-terrorist operation" and said that Ukraine's action was "the West using Ukrainians to wage war against us." He also said that Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region was to divert attention from Moscow's offensive in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and ultimately gain a better negotiating position to end the war.

This is the first time that Russian territory has suffered a large-scale ground offensive since World War II, and it is also the first time that the Ukrainian army has entered the Russian border in the form of a large-scale regular army since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.

On August 7, a large number of buildings were destroyed after the Russian border town of Sodja was attacked by Ukrainian troops.

Cross-border strikes, what is the situation like?

How much Russian territory has the Ukrainian army occupied in the offensive for several consecutive days? At a meeting on August 12, Alexey Smirnov, acting governor of Kursk Oblast, told Putin via video link that the Ukrainian army controlled 28 settlements in the province with a total of about 2,000 people and penetrated 12 kilometers into Russian territory on a 40-kilometer-long front.

According to Russian officials, 120,000 people have evacuated Kursk and another 60,000 are preparing to evacuate. In addition to Kursk Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, which borders Ukraine, also asked residents to evacuate. Some residents recorded videos lamenting that they were forced to flee the border area, leaving their belongings behind, and they also begged Putin for help.

Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief Serski also briefed Zelensky on the operations in Kursk Oblast. According to Ukrainian media reports, Serski pointed out that as of August 12, the Ukrainian army controlled about 1,000 square kilometers of land in Kursk Oblast. He also said that the troops were carrying out their mission and that "the situation is under our control." The analysis channel "DeepState" on the Ukrainian social platform pointed out that the Ukrainian army controlled 44 settlements, more than the Russian report.

Regarding the battle of Kursk, both the Russian and Ukrainian armies have greatly controlled the outflow of information from the front lines and have been very cautious in their statements, making it difficult for the outside world to accurately estimate the development of the war.

In the early morning of August 6, thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, under the cover of a large number of drones and powerful artillery fire, led by tanks and armored vehicles, crossed the fields and forests in the Russian border area and entered Kursk Oblast. Some photos from the local area showed that buildings were destroyed and many equipment suffered losses. Some Russian military bloggers accused Kursk Oblast of having too weak border defenses, allowing the Ukrainian army to easily break through.

Multiple sources of information indicate that Ukrainian troops entered the Russian border town of Sudzha, 530 kilometers southwest of Moscow, which is the last transit point for Russia to export natural gas to Europe through Ukraine.

On August 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior military officials held a meeting outside Moscow on Ukraine's cross-border attack on the Kursk region.

The U.S. non-profit think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released a battle situation analysis report on August 11, saying that the Ukrainian army is still advancing to the west and northwest of Kursk Oblast, but it is still at least tens of kilometers away from the important E38 highway connecting Kursk City and the western part of Kursk Oblast. The report believes that the Ukrainian army may further expand its victory in the next few days, because the defense forces mobilized by the Russian army are temporarily scattered, and it is difficult to form an efficient command system in the short term, and it is easy to fall into fighting alone.

The Ukrainian army's attack was unexpected, and the military buildup in Sumy Oblast did not attract enough attention from the Russian army at the beginning. Therefore, when it began to cross the border, many videos and photos of the Russian army's panic response were circulated online - some Russian border guards were captured in the surprise attack; Russian armed helicopters tried to stop the Ukrainian army's advance, but fell after being attacked by drones or missiles, and Russian convoys were attacked and suffered heavy casualties... In addition, there were also video clips of the Russian army destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles.

Andrei Gurulev, a member of the lower house of the Russian parliament and a retired general, criticized the military for failing to properly protect the border, noting that while the Russian army had set up minefields along the border, it had failed to deploy enough troops to stop enemy raids.

As the Ukrainian army advances rapidly, some self-media channels claim that Ukraine's goal is to launch a large-scale military operation in Russia and even reverse the situation. Other analysts believe that Ukraine's actions in Kursk Oblast are aimed at capturing the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (Kurskaya AES), 40 kilometers west of Kursk. The nuclear power plant supplies electricity to Kursk Oblast and 19 other regions. It is one of the three largest nuclear power plants in Russia and one of the country's four largest electricity producers. As of 2024, the nuclear power plant has two operating reactors and two closed old units.

Satellite imagery shows the damaged Suzhkha border crossing in the Kursk region on August 8.

However, according to a frontline report published by the British "Economist" on August 11, the Ukrainian offensive was not as unstoppable as many people claimed. The report pointed out that although Ukraine's offensive was well prepared and unexpected, and even secretly withdrew some of its most elite troops from the eastern front to join the offensive, the Russian army still broke through the electronic interference after coming to its senses and attacked the Ukrainian army with drones, artillery and helicopters.

The report revealed that Ukrainian staff were very cautious about attacking more distant targets, such as the city of Kursk and its surrounding areas. One of them said, "Russian commanders are not idiots," and pointed out that if the Ukrainian army advances too fast and too far, not only will the supplies not be able to keep up, but it will also face greater military risks.

Pasi Paroinen, an analyst at the Blackbird Group, an open-source intelligence organization based in Finland, said that with the participation of Russian reserve forces, the most difficult stage of the Ukrainian cross-border attack may begin now. "If the Ukrainians want to advance further from their current position, it will be a tough battle, which is different from the beginning of this offensive."

On August 9, satellite images showed Ukrainian troops entering Russia's Kursk region.

Ukraine considers "cutting losses in advance"

Ukraine's cross-border operation was carried out in strict secrecy, and Ukrainian President Zelensky has been slow to make clear comments on it.

It was not until August 11 that Zelensky publicly admitted for the first time that the Ukrainian army had entered Russian territory. In a televised speech that evening, Zelensky said that the action in Kursk was the result of his prior communication with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Serski, and that he continued to listen to briefings from the front line. When talking about the purpose of the action, Zelensky said: "Ukraine is proving that it can achieve justice and to this end exert the necessary and appropriate pressure on the invaders."

What is Ukraine's plan for launching such an unexpected offensive with unknown risks, but it does not seem to be eager to quickly expand the results of the war and risk its entire fortune?

Although Ukraine has not clearly stated its strategic intentions so far, mainstream analysis believes that the background for Ukraine to launch the Kursk offensive is that the Ukrainian army encountered a relatively passive situation on the eastern front and in the overall war situation. The military action against Kursk Oblast can be said to be a risky move, a "different approach", and an attempt to help Ukraine regain the initiative in the war.

Since Ukraine's counterattack on the southern front in mid-2023 encountered successful defense by the Russian army and failed to meet expectations, the offensive initiative on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield shifted to the Russian side in 2024.

On August 9, in the Kursk region, a train of Russian military trucks was damaged by Ukrainian artillery fire.

In February this year, on the Donbas front in eastern Ukraine, the Russian army successfully forced the Ukrainian army to abandon Avdiivka, an important city northwest of Donetsk. After that, taking advantage of the fact that the Ukrainian army did not have enough time to build a complete defense line, the Russian army continued to advance westward, and by August, a salient nearly 10 kilometers long had been formed.

Today, the Russian army's vanguard directly threatens the town of Pokrovsk, which is located on an important highway connecting the north and south ends of the eastern front of Ukraine. Dozens of kilometers to the north is Bakhmut, where the two sides fought fiercely more than a year ago. Currently, the Russian army here has advanced 6-8 kilometers to the west and is besieging the important town of Chasiv Yar controlled by the Ukrainian army. At the southern end of the eastern front, the Russian army's offensive against the important Ukrainian town of Toretsk is also pressing forward step by step.

The Russian army's advance on the eastern front was slow, and it used small groups of infantry to attack and advance. However, this tactic was very costly and also forced the Ukrainian army on the eastern front to retreat.

In addition, since May this year, the Russian army has regrouped some of its forces and resumed its offensive from the northern part of Kharkiv, once again approaching Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city and industrial center. Although the Russian army has only advanced a few kilometers after months of fierce fighting, the Russian army has used drones,Glide bombandBallistic MissilesThe continuous attacks on Ukrainian military positions around Kharkiv and sometimes on the city have put great pressure on Ukraine. Many citizens who returned to Kharkiv in 2023 because the war situation stabilized have left again.

A man stands next to the burnt wreckage of a car in Kursk, Russia, on August 11. The debris of an intercepted Ukrainian missile hit the area.

In addition to the relatively passive situation on the front line, Ukraine has also experienced changes in command personnel and conscription methods this year. At the beginning of this year, rumors about the tension between President Zelensky and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Zaluzhny continued to expand. In February, Zelensky adjusted the position of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and replaced Zaluzhny with Serski.

Although there were rumors at the time that Zelensky and Zaluzhny did not reach a consensus on whether to recruit more people, the Ukrainian army launched a new large-scale conscription plan after Zelensky "changed generals". In May this year, Ukraine introduced a new bill requiring adult men aged 25 to 60 to register their military service information online and punish those who fail to register after the deadline. However, according to a report by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), some Ukrainian men believe that the war on the front line has not changed much, and the result of serving is likely to be death in endless trench warfare, so some people use various methods to avoid military service.

According to CNN, there have been cracks in the Ukrainian military command recently, and subordinates doubt his ability to conduct a war of attrition. The TV station said: "The cracks in his command have recently attracted public attention, and subordinates doubt whether Serski is ready to bear huge losses in a war of attrition."

At present, the overall passive state of the Ukrainian army has not improved. On August 2, Zelensky visited the Pokrovsk front and said that it was the focus of the Russian offensive and "the most brutal battle was taking place there." He also said that Ukraine had formed 14 new brigades to replace the front-line troops and serve as a reserve force, but these brigades were not yet fully equipped.

As the situation in all aspects continues to deteriorate, the Ukrainian people's will to fight has also been affected. A poll released by the Kyiv Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in mid-July showed that the number of people who believed that Ukraine must not give up any territory for peace has dropped from 82%-87% at the beginning of the war to 55%; the number of people who believed that concessions could be made has increased from 10% at the beginning of the war to 32%. The survey was conducted between May 16 and 22 and June 20 and 25 for adult citizens living in territories controlled by the Ukrainian government.

The above survey shows that although most Ukrainians still believe that the war should be continued, pessimism is spreading. Especially when there are constant rumors that Trump may make a comeback after the US election this year and that the US and Russia may use Ukraine as a bargaining chip, Ukrainians have to start considering the plan of "cutting losses in advance".

On August 11, Ukrainian soldiers drove Soviet-made armored fighting vehicles MT-LB through sunflower fields in the Sumy region towards Russia.

To increase bargaining chips?

Ukraine has recently frequently sent out signals of peace talks.

Zelensky plans to hold a second peace summit on Ukraine in November and expressed his willingness to accept Russian representatives to attend the meeting. In an interview at the end of July, when asked whether it was possible to give up some territory to end the conflict, Zelensky replied that the fate of Ukrainian territory should be decided by the Ukrainian people. Some analysts believe that this may be a hint that the issue needs to be resolved through a referendum.

Turkish analyst Engin Ozer told Russia's Sputnik News Agency on August 12 that Ukrainians are preparing for a referendum and peace talks with Russia, which may begin in mid-December.

However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at the ASEAN meeting in Laos at the end of July that Russia did not believe in Ukraine's sincerity in negotiations. He also said that Russia would not make concessions to Ukraine and that "all goals of the special military operation will be achieved."

A border crossing between Ukraine's northeastern Sumy region and Russia on August 11.

Attacking Kursk may help Ukraine create an opportunity - not only does Putin believe that this is to "gain a better negotiating position", many European and American analysts who support Ukraine also believe that this will help Ukraine gain more bargaining chips.

Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, wrote in the U.S. magazine Foreign Policy that the Ukrainian military's actions in Kursk "may accelerate the end of the war" and "Kiev has not only changed the military narrative, but may also try to change the negotiation narrative - from a 'land for peace' agreement to a 'land for land' agreement." He wrote, "Losing control of parts of mainland Russia is a huge embarrassment for the Kremlin."

Umlan believes that Ukraine's actions in Kursk also broke Russia's previous "red line" for war - Ukraine attacked the Russian mainland and used Western weapons, but Russia did not fully mobilize or declare war, nor did it usenuclear weapon。

The Wall Street Journal also pointed out in a commentary that Ukraine urgently needs to prove its ability and will to continue fighting before the US election, and the attack on Kursk is an important signal.

As evidence of the speculation of "increasing bargaining chips", the US magazine Forbes reported that the Ukrainian army has begun digging trenches in the Russian territory occupied by Kursk. Some analysts believe that this move will make it difficult for the Russian army to regain these territories through war - that would mean huge sacrifices. "In order to regain control of these native territories, Russia may participate in negotiations."

However, Putin showed a tough stance at the meeting on August 12, saying that the Ukrainian army was accumulating bargaining chips for peace talks, but because Ukraine "indiscriminately attacked civilians and civilian facilities, and attempted to threaten nuclear facilities", there was no point in negotiating with Ukraine. He also accused the enemy of trying to "stir up discord, create conflicts, intimidate the people, and undermine the unity and cohesion of Russian society."

The Russian Ministry of Defense said that since August 6, the Russian army has killed and wounded more than 1,600 Ukrainian soldiers in the battle in the Kursk direction and destroyed 32 Ukrainian tanks. On August 9, the Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee announced that it would immediately conduct anti-terrorist operations in the border areas of Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk to deal with the enemy's sabotage and terrorist threats.

In addition, Ukraine may use the Russian soldiers captured in this offensive, including Russian conscripts and Chechen soldiers, as bargaining chips for exchanging prisoners of war. Previously, Ukraine has repeatedly accused the two countries of slow progress in exchanging prisoners of war, and Zelensky has recently demanded that as many captured Ukrainians as possible be brought back to the country.

More analysis believes that even if negotiations cannot be started immediately, the pressure Ukraine exerts in Kursk can force Russia to mobilize more troops to the border of Kursk Oblast, thereby easing the pressure faced by the Ukrainian army on the eastern front and the Kharkiv Oblast front and balancing the battlefield situation. A senior Ukrainian security official revealed that the purpose of the Ukrainian army's raid on the Russian border is to prolong the front line, disperse the enemy's forces and cause maximum losses in order to undermine the stability of the Russian situation, "because they cannot protect their own borders."

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Eurasia Program at the U.S. Foreign Policy Research Institute, said it was unclear whether the operation would force Russia to move its troops from the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine to the Russian border, as the Russian army had already deployed military supplies near the Kharkiv border in the northeast, so the Russian army could redeploy its forces and did not necessarily have to withdraw from Donbas.

On August 11, Ukrainian President Zelensky admitted for the first time that Ukrainian troops had launched an offensive in Kursk Oblast, Russia, in the border area between Russia and Ukraine.

At present, the US has denied that the attack will further escalate the conflict. Sabrina Singh, deputy press secretary of the US Department of Defense, said that the United States has supported Ukraine in protecting itself from cross-border attacks from the beginning. Although the Kursk attack involved ground troops rather than missiles or drones, it is also in line with this policy. Ukraine is "taking action to protect itself" in the Kursk region. The United States does not believe that this is an act of escalating the situation. "Ukraine is doing what it needs to do to succeed on the battlefield."

Although the United States said it was unaware of the Ukrainian military's actions in advance, Russia insisted that Western countries bear responsibility. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said that Ukraine should be clear that from a military point of view, it is meaningless to attack various regions of Russia, and "the Russian armed forces will soon respond strongly." "We have no doubt that the organizers and perpetrators of these crimes, including their foreign planners, will be held accountable for this."

In any case, what happened in Kursk Oblast has opened a new chapter in the Russia-Ukraine war, and the subsequent actions and reactions of both sides will affect the direction of the war.