CITIC Securities: Residents' housing cost is expected to continue to decline through multiple channels, which is beneficial to the development of the banking industry
2024-08-12
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Securities Times e-company news, CITIC Securities Research Report believes that the capital cost of home purchase is the most critical factor in promoting the release of reasonable housing demand. The capital cost of home purchase is determined not only by the pricing of mortgage loans, but also by the pricing of provident fund loans and the interest deduction of personal income tax mortgage loans. Bank mortgage lending strategies will remain positive, and it is expected that the interest rate of newly issued mortgages will drop to around 3% in 2024. Interest rate marketization will also promote a steady decline in the interest rate of existing mortgages. The amount of provident fund loans in various places is expected to rise, interest rates will fall, and the potential for new credit support will exceed one trillion yuan, forming a powerful supplement to mortgages. In conjunction with other policies, the real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2024. Once housing prices stabilize, it is expected that the optimization of the balance sheets of real estate companies will accelerate, and the valuation of high-quality developers in core cities is already in the value investment range. The prosperity of the real estate market has a far-reaching impact on the banking industry. CITIC Securities believes that the joint efforts of various departments to release self-occupied demand and break the negative cycle of the industrial chain caused by falling housing prices will be beneficial to the development of the banking industry.
