Work together to dispel the war clouds in the Middle East
2024-08-07
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Wang JinTensions in the Middle East have escalated sharply after the leaders of Hamas and a senior military commander of Lebanon's Hezbollah were killed in attacks.The United States is the main "source of release" of tense information. According to media reports citing informed sources, US Secretary of State Blinken told the G7 foreign ministers in a telephone conference on the 4th that Iran and Hezbollah may start attacking Israel as early as the 5th. It is not clear how Iran and Hezbollah will launch the attack, nor is the exact time. At the meeting, Blinken asked the G7 foreign ministers to exert diplomatic pressure on Iran, Hezbollah and Israel to maintain maximum restraint. However, under the pretext of "preparing for a possible Iranian attack on Israel", the United States is strengthening its military power in the Middle East and sending more warships and fighter jets to the region. Objectively speaking, this move by the United States has made the atmosphere of war in the Middle East even stronger.At the same time, other parties are trying to mediate before a new round of conflict breaks out. Also on August 4, French President Emmanuel Macron and Jordanian King Abdullah II agreed to avoid military escalation in the Middle East "at all costs" in response to the escalating tensions in the Middle East. The two leaders also called on relevant parties to abandon the mentality of revenge and do their utmost to exercise restraint and responsibility to ensure the safety of the people. Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi made a rare visit to Iran on the 3rd to discuss the regional situation with Iranian President Pezerhiziyan and Foreign Minister. Safadi called for an end to the escalation of violence and the realization of "peace, security and stability" in the region.From a geopolitical perspective, as a member of the Arab world, Jordan can fully play the role of a "mediator". Jordan is a neighbor of Israel and has signed a peace treaty with Israel since 1994. Jordan is also an important partner of the United States in the region. Of course, how effective Jordan's diplomatic mediation can be and whether the war clouds over the Middle East can be dispelled are still affected by several key factors.First, will the Netanyahu government change its aggressive offensive posture to avoid stimulating the fragile security situation in the Middle East? Since the outbreak of a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict on October 7 last year, the Netanyahu government has taken a tougher stance toward foreign countries. In terms of foreign security policy, Israel adheres to the concept of "preventing war" and "preemptive strike", that is, when danger just "emerges", it will be eliminated through military means; when conflict is inevitable, it will take the initiative in the conflict by "taking the initiative".Under this policy, Israel has continuously launched attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi armed forces in Yemen over the past period of time. However, as the conflict has lasted for 10 months, different opinions in Israel on the next phase of policy have become increasingly public. Recently, Israeli media revealed that Netanyahu had a fierce argument with Israeli Defense Minister Galant and Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Halevy at a high-level security meeting. The Israeli military believes that after a series of combat operations in Gaza, the conditions for negotiations are now in place and the situation should develop in a direction of easing. Obviously, avoiding provocation is conducive to shaping a negotiating atmosphere.Secondly, will Iran carefully consider the intensity of its military counterattack? Iranian government leaders have said that Israel will definitely be hit back. But how to grasp the extent of the counterattack is a test of Iran's wisdom. After all, the spiral escalation of confrontation will only drag both sides into a deeper security dilemma. After Israel attacked the Iranian embassy building in Damascus, the capital of Syria, in April this year, Iran and the so-called "resistance axis" launched retaliatory activities. However, to some extent, the Israeli targets selected and the methods used at that time took into account the factor of "controllable impact" and did not plunge the situation in the Middle East into greater turmoil. Therefore, Iran may launch a direct attack on Israel's mainland next, and it is necessary to learn from the experience of previous military operations.Finally, the conflicting parties lack direct mediation channels, and external efforts need to be increased to promote peace. Israel and Iran do not have direct diplomatic relations, and there is also a lack of communication channels with the various organizations and members of the so-called "resistance axis". The current security situation in the Middle East is severe, and one of the main reasons is the lack of a mediation mechanism. The mutual hostility and distrust between the conflicting parties has led to an increasing risk of the spread of the conflict. In addition, the communication mechanism between the conflicting parties is relatively limited. In addition to the lack of enthusiasm for mediation by relevant parties in the international community, since the Houthi armed forces in Yemen, the Palestinian "Hamas" and "Jihad", and the Lebanese "Hezbollah" are not recognized by most Western countries, and the Lebanese government, the Yemeni government, the Palestinian National Authority, etc., which are widely recognized by the international community, cannot effectively control domestic factions, it is very difficult to mediate the de-escalation of the conflict.Once the next round of conflict begins, it is likely to escalate into a larger-scale war. The tension in the Middle East requires greater attention from the international community, and also requires more proactive intervention and mediation by relevant parties and countries in the region. (The author is the director of the Center for Israel Studies at Northwestern University)▲
