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Cailianshe News, August 5 (Reporter Zhou Xiaoya)As the stock market experienced "Black Monday", A-share broad-based ETFs once again became the main direction of capital inflows.

In the afternoon of August 5, the four CSI 300 ETFs saw a significant increase in volume. By the close of trading, the total transaction volume exceeded 12.5 billion yuan, more than 70% higher than the previous trading day. The full-day transaction volume of the SSE 50 ETF reached 5.581 billion yuan, setting a new high since March 5 this year.

With the current fluctuations in the external markets, the ranking performance has also changed. Some stockholders joked that in just two trading days, the CSI 300 has become the strongest stock index in East Asia this year.

In the past July, the net subscription of non-cash ETF market accelerated, and the fund shares increased by nearly 80 billion shares throughout the month, setting a new high for the year. Broad-based ETFs once again became the main force to attract funds. With the current volatility of the external market, does the increase in funds flowing into non-cash ETFs mean that it is time to invest in RMB assets?

Broad-based ETFs saw a surge in trading volume

Today, the transaction volume of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF reached 6.921 billion yuan, ranking first among non-commodity ETFs and the peak since late July. The transaction volume of E Fund CSI 300 ETF also reached 2.794 billion yuan.

In addition, the trading volume of broad-based ETFs such as Hua Xia SSE Star 50 ETF, Southern CSI 1000 ETF, E Fund ChiNext ETF, and Southern CSI 500 ETF also exceeded 2 billion yuan today.

It is worth noting that in the past July, non-commodity ETFs have shown signs of accelerated inflows, and broad-based ETFs have been favored by funds. Wind data shows that non-commodity ETFs increased by 79.491 billion shares in July, setting a monthly record since February this year. Previously, non-commodity ETFs had a net subscription of 89.246 billion shares in January this year.

Since May this year, non-commodity ETFs have shifted from net redemption to net subscription as a whole, with net subscriptions reaching 75.065 billion shares in June and the net subscription share increasing again in July.

Specifically, broad-based ETFs increased by 68.819 billion shares in July, which means that more than 80% of the increase in non-commodity ETFs in July was contributed by broad-based ETFs. The four CSI 300 ETFs received a total of 46.649 billion net subscriptions in July.

Since the beginning of this year, non-commodity ETFs have increased by 305.699 billion shares, of which broad-based ETFs have increased by 269.381 billion shares, also accounting for more than 80%.

The scale of many broad-based ETFs has also continued to break records in recent days. For example, the scale of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF was 260.522 billion yuan as of last Friday, and it had previously reached 263.906 billion yuan at the end of July. The scale of Huaxia SSE 50 ETF has also exceeded 120 billion yuan, reaching 124.514 billion yuan at the end of July. The scale of E Fund CSI 300 ETF has also reached the 170 billion yuan mark, reaching 174.395 billion yuan at the end of July.

Is August the time to make plans?

With the current fluctuations in the external markets, the performance of global stock markets has also seen new changes this year. Some stockholders commented that in just two trading days, the CSI 300 has become the strongest stock index in East Asia this year.

In this case, does the acceleration of funds mean that A-shares have ushered in the layout opportunity in August? Morgan Stanley Fund analysis said that due to the increasing impact of overseas factors and the sharp fluctuations in overseas stock markets, A-shares are inevitably affected to a certain extent. However, it should be noted that due to the relatively weak domestic economy itself, investors have sufficient expectations, the downward trend of overseas margins, and the convergence of interest rate differentials between China and the United States, the pressure of net outflow of northbound funds may be alleviated.

CICC's quantitative team combines the overall changes in the macro environment, index trend structure, transaction distribution, technical indicator performance, etc., and believes that A-shares are generally bullish in terms of macro, micro and technical indicators. The current valuation is at a historical low and there may be limited room for decline, so it can be actively allocated.

The recent view of Zhang Qiyao's team at Xingzheng Strategy is that in addition to the excess of bond-like low-volatility dividend assets beginning to converge after hitting a new high, four positive factors have been seen changing in the market since the end of July, supporting their judgment that "similar to late April, risk appetite will enter a window of slow climb and repair from an overly pessimistic state, and the turning point may be in August."

First, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee and the Political Bureau meeting have set a positive tone. Various policy easing measures have been and are expected to continue to be implemented and increased intensively.

Second, the second quarter itself is often the stage with the most pessimistic expectations and the worst physical experience for the whole year, while the third quarter is likely to improve.

Third, the market's own risk appetite is very low this year, resulting in everyone having fully incorporated negative expectations during the earnings window period. The earnings season has instead become a window for increased risk appetite.

Fourth, at the capital level, the recent accelerated inflow of ETFs has also provided support to the market.

Golden Eagle Fund believes that August will be an important observation period for policy effects, which may change the market's current pessimistic expectations of the economy and further open up market upside. In addition, the policy makers also have demands for capital market stability. When the market approaches the previous low, it is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic, providing a safety cushion for the market's downside.

"From an industry perspective, we are optimistic about some areas that will benefit from the Fed's interest rate cuts, such as innovative drugs and gold." Specifically for each sector, Morgan Stanley Fund believes that areas with stable fundamentals and policy support, such as home appliances and utilities, will maintain good relative returns. In the medium term, it continues to be optimistic about semiconductors and military industry where business conditions are improving.

The CICC quantitative team is relatively optimistic about the value style of the market in August. The team of Zhang Qiyao of Xingzheng Strategy also analyzed that although the market style may shift from over-defense to both offense and defense, and spread from high dividends to high prosperity and high ROE, it should be emphasized that this spread is limited. It is a spread in the era of high-win investment and the beta of the leading large-cap stocks, and does not support the market to return to the style of small and micro-cap stocks and theme speculation.

Some institutions also believe that interim performance reports have become an important clue for market transactions. Investors can track the positive changes in the fundamentals of listed companies through mainstream broad-based indexes such as the CSI 300 Index, CSI A50 Index, ChiNext Index, and Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index.