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Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei Source: Russian Satellite News Agency

Direct News:After Hamas political bureau leader Haniyeh was killed in an attack in Iran, Iran has threatened to launch a large-scale retaliatory action. The New York Times even reported that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has ordered a direct attack on Israel. Do you think this will lead to an escalation of conflicts in the Middle East?

Special commentator Liu Heping:In fact, in early April this year, when Israel's airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Syria killed Zahedi, a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' "Quds Force", Iran launched an unprecedented round of retaliatory actions against Israel. For Iran, this attack is undoubtedly more serious. Not only did Israel attack an important Iranian guest directly on Iranian soil, but the attack also took place during the inauguration ceremony of Iran's new president Pezerhicyan. In other words, this Israeli attack not only seriously violated Iran's sovereignty, but also seriously damaged Iran's national dignity.

From this perspective, Iran not only has the urge to retaliate against Israel, but also has "ten thousand" reasons to retaliate against Israel. However, despite this, I still insist that Iran will not launch a large-scale retaliatory action against Israel, let alone a full-scale war with Israel. There is actually only one reason behind this, that is, Iran not only cannot beat Israel, but also the gap in strength between the two sides is too great. I believe that in the last unprecedented retaliation by Iran against Israel, nearly 99% of the missiles and drones were intercepted, and Israel's subsequent counter-retaliation against Iran also caused Iran to suffer heavy losses. This incident has made Iran realize the gap in strength between the two sides, so that Iran finally stopped the "counter-retaliation" against Israel. This time, under Iran's extremely tight protection, Haniya was attacked in Tehran, the capital of Iran, and Iran still does not know how Israel did this, and does not know whether Israel launched the attack from Iran or Israel. This phenomenon not only means that the entire Iranian territory is in an extremely unsafe state, but also means that the strength of the two sides is not at the same level at all.

Of course, for Iran, having suffered such a great humiliation, it will not be able to cope with the rising nationalism in the country if it does not retaliate. Therefore, Iran is very likely to take some symbolic retaliatory actions, or even stay out of it and let the militia organizations in Syria and Iraq vent their anger.

As for Israel, its current strategic priority is still to completely eliminate Hamas, followed by Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Houthi armed forces supported by Iran, and finally Iran. In other words, Iran is not a target that Israel urgently needs to resolve. This also means that the situation in the Middle East will not escalate as a result, and a major war between the two sides will not break out.

Hamas leader Haniyeh Photo source: RTHK

Direct News: After its leader Haniyeh was killed in an attack, Hamas not only considered this a "serious escalation" of the situation, but also warned Israel that it must bear serious consequences for its actions. What do you think of this?

Special commentator Liu Heping:Regarding Israel's attack on Haniya and Hamas's statement, I have three basic judgments:

The first is that, as is known to all, compared to other Hamas leaders, especially Sinwar, who has been fighting guerrilla warfare with the Israeli army in Gaza, Haniyeh is considered a moderate and pragmatic figure in the Hamas leadership. In fact, he has been advocating and facilitating negotiations between Hamas and Israel. However, just when the outside world thought that the peace talks between the two sides were about to reach the final stage, Israel did not hesitate to offend Iran and killed Haniyeh on Iranian territory. This actually proves once again that Israel has never really wanted to negotiate. Its peace talks with Hamas are just a show, that is, to cope with the pressure from the international community, especially the United States, and domestic demands to resolve the hostage issue through negotiations.

Second, before Haniyeh was killed, various Palestinian factions had signed the Beijing Declaration on Ending Division and Strengthening Palestinian National Unity in Beijing. The publication of the Beijing Declaration not only means that the relevant parties are willing to give Hamas a way out, but also means that Hamas intends to abandon its original radical line and radical practices and transform into a moderate organization that can be recognized and accepted by the international community to jointly participate in the Palestinian nation-building process. Under such circumstances, Israel still wants to kill Haniyeh, the moderate leader of Hamas. The political signal behind this is that Israel has never intended to give Hamas a way out, let alone see the "normalization" of Hamas.

Third, from common sense, Israel's killing of Hamas' moderate leader Haniyeh will certainly further stimulate anti-Israel sentiment within Hamas, especially encouraging the radical faction within Hamas to gain power, which is not conducive to peace talks and even more detrimental to the lasting peace and stability of Gaza. However, Israel did it anyway. This means that Israel did not take Hamas's reaction seriously at all, not to mention that Hamas is no longer strong in arms and horses, but is now fleeing in all directions after being beaten by Israel.

US Secretary of State Blinken Source: RTHK

Direct News: Regarding the attack on Hamas leader Haniyeh in Iran, US Secretary of State Blinken, who is visiting Singapore, said, "We were not aware of this incident and we were not involved in it." What do you think about this?

Special commentator Liu Heping:In fact, there is no doubt that the reason why Israel dares to do whatever it wants in the Middle East is the support and connivance of the United States, especially the strong protection provided by the US military. This means that the ultimate consequences of Israel's actions in the Middle East will be borne by the United States. In this case, according to common sense and common sense, all major military actions of Israel in the Middle East should be communicated and coordinated with the United States in advance. However, whether in the attack on Haniya or the death of Shukur, the military commander and head of the strategic forces of Hezbollah, in the Israeli bombing of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, whether it is the White House spokesperson, or the US Secretary of Defense Austin and Secretary of State Blinken, they all publicly claimed that they were neither aware of nor involved.

I think this is extremely abnormal. First of all, it is definitely not because the United States is afraid of Hamas and Iran and deliberately shirks its responsibility. This is not the style of the United States. You know, even Israel is not afraid of Hamas and Iran, so there is no reason for the United States, the world's number one military hegemon, to be afraid. Secondly, according to past routines, the United States is very likely to hold an ambiguous attitude towards such things, that is, neither affirming nor denying, in order to show its support for Israel and the close relationship between the United States and Israel, while maintaining a certain strategic deterrence against Iran and Hamas. Therefore, the United States flatly denied this matter and made it public, which is actually venting its dissatisfaction with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Because Netanyahu attacked Iran and killed Hamas' political leader Haniyeh, and attacked Lebanon and killed Hezbollah's No. 2 figure Shukur at almost the same time. These two things directly slapped the Biden administration in the face, because during this period of time, the Biden administration has been trying hard to coordinate the negotiations between Hamas and Israel, and has repeatedly leaked to the outside world that the negotiations will be successful. Secondly, it is not conducive to the Democratic Party's election situation, because Democratic Party supporters have always opposed the Biden administration's support for Israel's attack on Hamas and hope that the war can end soon. This means that if Israel and Hamas reach a peace agreement, it will be beneficial to the Democratic Party's election situation, and vice versa. It is beneficial to Trump's election situation. From this perspective, it is not ruled out that Netanyahu's action to escalate the war this time is a gift to Trump, intending to secretly help Trump get elected.

Author: Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcast of Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan"