news

[Global Times Special Correspondent in the United States Feng Yaren, Global Times Reporter Li Meng, Global Times Special Correspondent Wang Xiaoxiong] Editor's Note: Although it has been about 10 days since the assassination attempt on former US President Trump, the handling of the incident and the aftermath of the incident are still ongoing. The US Congress will focus on investigating the dereliction of duty of the Secret Service, and media from various countries are discussing the impact of this incident on the United States. The New York Times believes that the attempted assassination on July 13 may further tear the United States apart. Jin Canrong, a professor at the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China, said in an interview with the Global Times that this incident reflects that the United States is experiencing the third capital split, which is one of the reasons why the domestic struggle in the country has been particularly fierce in recent years. This view has been confirmed by some previous reports by some US media and think tank analysis. They have long reminded that the two parties currently represent not only different groups, but also different economies, and that the two economies are still in the process of continuous differentiation, further exacerbating the division in the United States.

On July 22, 2024, local time, a hearing on the assassination of former US President Trump was held at the Capitol in Washington, DC. (Visual China)

Local capital + physical capital VS global capital + virtual capital

"When the shooting occurred on July 13, the United States was already so polarized in terms of ideology, culture and partisan confrontation that it often looked like two countries, or even two realities." On July 15, the New York Times analyzed the impact of the incident, saying that Americans, more than ever before, do not consider themselves to be part of a collective, but rather believe that they are "standing on both sides of the modern wall."

Jin Canrong, a professor at the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China, said in an interview with the Global Times that the shooting incident shows that the United States is experiencing the third capital split. Specifically, the contradictions between local capital and global capital, and between real capital and virtual capital are becoming increasingly acute. Jin Canrong explained that the Republican Party represents local capital and real capital, that is, industries such as steel and automobiles, while the Democratic Party represents virtual capital and global capital, mainly Wall Street interests. "Because capital has introduced different representatives, the struggle in the United States in recent years has been particularly fierce."

Jin Canrong introduced that the first two capital splits in American history occurred in the early days of the founding of the United States. At that time, the United States did not have its own industry, and basic daily necessities were traded from Europe. The capital at that time was called trade capital, which was divided into pro-British and pro-French factions, and the two factions fought fiercely. This confrontation was particularly fierce during the administration of Adams, the second president of the United States, but the civil war was eventually avoided through compromise. During this period, external threats and the coordination ability of Washington, the founding president of the United States, were the key factors in avoiding the civil war.

Entering the 19th century, the United States experienced the Anglo-American War (1812-1814), which made the United States economically independent and promoted the development of industry. At this time, the U.S. population had exceeded 10 million, and the population was of a certain size, so the market was created. Then the British Navy cut off European trade, forcing the United States to develop its own industry. When the war was over, the initial American industry was created. Jin Canrong said that with the rise of industrial capital, the nature of American capital changed from trade capital to industrial and commercial capital. This change brought new expansion needs and also triggered a new contradiction-the resistance of capital groups. The Civil War (1861-1865) was a direct result of this contradiction. Northern industrial and commercial capital was resisted by southern plantation capital, which eventually led to the outbreak of the Civil War.

They live in a "different economy and world"

The view that the two parties in the United States represent different capitals coincides with previous research and reports by some American think tanks and media that the two parties represent different groups of people and economies. In 2020, Bloomberg News published an article stating that Republicans and Democrats not only have different political agendas, they also live in different economies. "Republicans and Democrats do increasingly occupy different worlds," CNN published an article in 2018, saying that Democratic supporters are concentrated in racially diverse, mainly secular, post-industrial metropolitan centers, while Republican supporters are based in small towns and rural communities, which are mainly white, Christian, etc.

In 2019, Murro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and analyst Weiton, together with two reporters from the Wall Street Journal, studied the speed of economic changes in the US elections and the two parties' constituencies in the 10 years ending in 2019. They found that in the 111th Congress, which took office in 2009, Democratic constituencies (usually urban areas) accounted for 39% of the US land area, while Republican constituencies accounted for 61% of the total area of ​​the United States. By the 116th Congress, just 10 years later, the proportion of Democratic constituencies in the total area of ​​the United States had dropped to about 20%.

Along with the changes in the size of "red areas" (areas supporting Republicans - Editor's note) and "blue areas" (areas supporting Democrats - Editor's note) are changes in population. In just 10 years, the education level and diversity of people in "blue areas" have increased significantly. For example, the proportion of adults in the area with a bachelor's degree or above has increased from 28.4% in 2008 to 35.5%. As for people in "red areas", their bachelor's degree acquisition rate has hardly exceeded 26.6%.

Behind the different regions and populations represented by the two parties is actually the different economies they represent. Research by Muro et al. shows that in the 10 years since 2008, the share of employment in professional and digital services in Democratic districts has increased from 63.7% to 71.1%, while the share of employment in manufacturing and mining in the country has dropped from 53.8% to 43.6% and from 46.1% to 39.5%, respectively. In contrast, Republican districts have returned to more traditional areas. In just 10 years, the proportion of professional and digital employment in the party's districts has dropped from 36.3% to 28.9%, while the proportion of employment in manufacturing and agricultural mining has risen from 46.2% to 56.4% and from 53.9% to 60.5%, respectively. During the same period, the gross domestic product (GDP) of each seat in Democratic districts has increased by one-third, from $35.7 billion to $48.5 billion, while for Republican districts, the figure has dropped from $33.2 billion to $32.6 billion.

"This seems to indicate a level of polarization that is almost unsustainable." Researchers such as Muro believe that there is little sign that the economic polarization trend in the United States over the past decade is about to reverse. On the contrary, the current economic trends have exacerbated the differences between the two parties, so at least in the foreseeable future, the country seems destined to struggle with extreme economic, regional and political divisions. The two parties are almost going their own way on important economic and social issues such as innovation, immigration and education because they represent completely different worlds.

Economic divisions have become a key issue polarizing America in the 21st century

As early as 1992, Democratic strategist Carville gave his famous advice to the party's presidential candidate Bill Clinton before the election that year: "It's the economy, stupid!" Brown, a former congressman from Valleyburg, Georgia and a local pecan grower, said bluntly: "Whether we are Republicans or Democrats, we have to eat."

Whether it is a well-known politician or an ordinary citizen, their statements are enough to illustrate the impact of the economy on politics. However, the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States is also getting bigger and bigger. In October 2021, a company called "Smart Network" placed bananas in front of the bronze bull statue on Wall Street and erected a statue of the gorilla Harambe opposite the bronze bull to protest the widening gap between the rich and the poor in the United States. Harambe was a gorilla shot in 2016. At that time, a 4-year-old boy entered the gorilla enclosure, and Harambe was shot after approaching the boy. Many people believed that the gorilla was going to take care of the boy at the time, not to hurt him, so they spoke up for Harambe. The founder of "Smart Network" said that Harambe represents the millions of people struggling under the elite class, and bananas represent "wealth that will rot."

On October 18, 2021, bananas were placed next to the bronze bull statue on Wall Street, and a sculpture of the gorilla Harambe was placed opposite. Some people used this to protest the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States. (Visual China)

The US CNBC website believes that economic division, like race, gender and religion, has become a key issue in the polarization of the United States in the 21st century. The media reminded that between the two parties, economic divisions have led Democrats to promote investment in research, skills training and infrastructure, while Republicans have resisted taxation and government spending. These conflicts have cast a shadow on the prospects of the United States to improve productivity, achieve economic growth and enhance global competitiveness.

In recent years, Americans' assessment and perception of the economy have become increasingly partisan. In January this year, a survey conducted jointly by the British magazine The Economist and the YouGov polling company showed that only 37% of Americans believed that job opportunities were increasing. Because the Democratic Party is currently in power, twice as many Democrats as Republicans believe that job opportunities are increasing. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to believe that the unemployment rate has fallen. The proportion of Republicans who believe that the economy is getting worse (62%) is almost three times that of Democrats (22%). "Is the US economy doing well?" According to a report by the British Guardian in June this year, the answer to this question depends on whether you ask a Democrat or a Republican.

National consumer confidence data compiled by the University of Michigan shows that the gap between party supporters in their views of the economy dates back to at least the Reagan administration. When a Republican takes the White House, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say the economy is strong; the same principle applies when a Democrat takes office. "(These cognitive biases) get bigger and bigger over time... It's true that this partisan divide has been growing to some extent," said Sandoval, director of the economic analysis program in the economic and business research department of the University of Florida.

Is Silicon Valley Leaning Right?

In fact, the support groups of the two parties in the United States have been changing. The current support groups of the Democratic Party were once "hardcore fans" of the Republican Party decades ago. Recently, a special phenomenon has emerged in the Silicon Valley area, which is considered the Democratic Party's base camp - the support of many Silicon Valley entrepreneurs for the Republican Party is increasing. According to Bloomberg and other media reports, after Ohio Senator and former venture capitalist Cyrus Vance was selected as the Republican vice presidential candidate on July 15, technology giants including Tesla CEO Musk and Varda Aerospace Co-founder and President Asparukhov welcomed it.

Musk and other Silicon Valley heavyweights such as Sequoia Capital partner Maguire have announced their support for Republican candidates and donated to them. In March this year, Vance invited the youngest son of former US President Trump to hold a private meeting with Silicon Valley entrepreneur Sachs. Afterwards, Sachs held a fundraiser in his $20 million mansion in San Francisco to support Trump's campaign. Some people believe that holding a Republican fundraising event in the heart of the technology industry is a milestone event.

The shift of some Silicon Valley entrepreneurs to the Republican Party is not a recent phenomenon. According to a report by the New York Times in November 2022, during the 2022 US midterm election cycle, Thiel, an early investor in Facebook, has become one of the largest individual donors to the Republican Party, donating tens of millions of dollars to Republican candidates. Before the 2022 US midterm elections, Musk encouraged his 115 million "fans" on Twitter at the time to support Republicans in their campaigns for Congress. In October 2022, Silicon Valley industry magazine The Information reported that during this election cycle, the proportion of donations to Republican candidates from employees of technology companies such as Google, Apple, and Amazon tripled from 5% in 2020 to 15% in 2022.

It is generally believed that some Silicon Valley entrepreneurs turned to the Republican Party because they were dissatisfied with the current US government's AI regulatory policies and cryptocurrency policies. Jin Canrong believes that despite the defection of some capital groups, the overall political front in the United States is still relatively clear. The contradiction between local capital and global capital, and between real capital and virtual capital still exists, and the support bases of the Republicans and Democrats are still solid.

The New York Times previously analyzed that the political landscape has completely changed now, with the Democratic Party becoming more friendly to labor and "increasingly hostile" to the technology industry. Silicon Valley, which has been considered a bastion of progressivism and social liberalism since its emergence, is now leaning to the right. The media also analyzed the reasons why some tech giants have turned to the Republican Party from a cultural perspective, saying that the technology industry is closely related to the counterculture movement of the 1960s. Today, the left dominates major cultural institutions in the United States, and some members of the technology community have become new representatives of the counterculture. The article reminds that a large part of the technology industry, including company founders and lower-level employees, remain staunch Democratic supporters and progressives. Nevertheless, the shift in political loyalty should be of concern to Democrats.