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In the field of financial investment, the combination of concepts and practices is the key to achieving long-term stable returns. With rich experience and profound professional knowledge in the financial market, Liu Yue, a senior investment manager of Capital Securities, has built a set of investment concepts centered on "absolute returns first, striving for excess returns, and controlling net value drawdowns." He believes that the current market is at the bottom, which is an excellent time to deploy high-quality assets and lay a solid foundation for future returns.

Liu Yue is an investment manager of the equity and derivatives business department of Capital Securities Asset Management Division. He joined Capital Securities in 2019 as an investment manager of the securities investment headquarters; in 2023, he joined Capital Securities Asset Management Division to continue to engage in investment research. He holds a bachelor's degree and a master's degree in engineering from Tianjin University. He is good at trend investment, has strong retracement control ability, and can grasp the main line of the market to obtain excess returns. He has in-depth research and understanding of industries and individual stocks, and is mainly responsible for subjective long product investment research.

Absolute return first

Strive for excess returns and control net value drawdown

In terms of investment, Liu Yue always implements the investment philosophy of "absolute return first, strive for excess returns, and control net value drawdown".

From the company's perspective, investors' trust is the lifeline of the manager, and striving to achieve the appreciation and preservation of investors' wealth is an important responsibility of the company. Therefore, the company requires investment managers to put absolute returns first in terms of values.

From the perspective of investors, the primary purpose of investors purchasing products is to obtain returns. Shouchuang Asset Management always puts the interests of investors first. If we blindly pursue relative rankings, it will go against the original intention of investors and also go against the company's concept of giving priority to investors' interests.

Of course, it is also inadequate to only consider absolute returns and give up excess returns. For investors, if they only pursue absolute returns, they can choose any fixed-income products on the market; for managers, as active managers, they also have the responsibility to outperform the index.

In-depth research based

Trend trading as a supplement, multi-industry configuration

When constructing the portfolio, Liu Yue and his team mainly used a top-down approach to establish an investment system that assesses risks at the macro level, selects industries at the meso level, and selects targets at the micro level.

The first priority is absolute return, so the selection of the target is relatively strict. Liu Yue and his team mainlyThe valuation level of individual stocks, the certainty of future performance and the economic situationWe make judgments based on three directions and focus on the position of individual stocks in the industry, in order to select companies with a stable position and the ability to obtain long-term excess returns. At the same time, in order to obtain excess returns, we also consider the sub-sectors with tight supply and demand in the prosperous industry and the incremental links under new technological conditions.

In actual transactions, Liu Yue will focus on stock selection from the left side, but the actual investment is more on the right.Past investment experience tells Liu Yue that reverse investment may have a large time cost when the market style has not yet arrived. The net value of the product may need to withstand certain fluctuations; for product holders, the experience may not be very friendly, especially when trust has not been established with investors. Therefore, when making a stock pool, try to lean to the left and make enough advance investment; in the investment process, always pay attention to the formation of the outlet and invest on the right side.

In order to control the drawdown and smooth the net value curve, Liu Yue mainly controls it through timing and industry allocation, while considering issues such as the concentration of industry allocation and trading heat.First, in terms of timing, we mainly choose the timing of major nodes, consider the market environment from top to bottom, and decide the size of equity positions; secondly, we configure the portfolio according to the market risk preference and the actual situation of related industries. Generally speaking, the concentration of the industry does not exceed 30%, which will be dispersed in 4-5 stocks, and the overall holdings are composed of 4-6 industries; at the same time, in the direction of holdings with more concentrated market transactions, we will gradually reduce the industry holdings, both participating in the bubble game and gradually withdrawing from it to maintain a relatively rational investment idea.

Long-term bottom area

Invest now to gain in the future

Liu Yue believes that the current market is at the bottom of a large cycle, and there is great potential for investment in the equity market in the future. By lengthening the cycle of asset allocation, now is a good time to allocate equity assets.

In terms of time, this round of adjustment lasted three years, which is more sufficient than any adjustment cycle in history; in terms of space, taking the CSI 300 as an example, the maximum adjustment in this round exceeded 40%, which is not inferior to the adjustment space in previous rounds of bull markets.

Recently, the market has been adjusted to a certain extent due to multiple factors. Liu Yue believes that it is more of a liquidity shock and a lack of confidence, but there is no systemic risk in the overall market in the short term. In particular, equity assets have been adjusted for three years and have a high cost-effectiveness. Many leading companies in the industry are in a very cheap position. In the future, the trigger for rising prices may be pulled with a certain opportunity.

The portfolio prefers growth and multi-point layout

Currently, Liu Yue's portfolio is mainly composed of growth assets such as technology manufacturing, supplemented by dividend assets.It is expected that this will remain the main focus for some time to come, but the dividend-oriented assets will be gradually reduced. At the same time, it has reserved a large stock pool in the fields of medicine, consumption, and new energy.

He believes that in the past few years, the main direction of social financing has shifted from real estate to manufacturing, and the upgrading of some industries has been visibly achieved. It is expected that with the continued increase in related investment in the future, there is a high probability that the leap from quantitative change to qualitative change will be completed, which will contain huge investment opportunities, especially in the fields of semiconductors, electronics, and military industry, which have made huge leaps in both quantity and quality compared with the past. At the same time, he believes that dividend assets are more of a trend at the moment. Although there is certainty in the industry, the cost-effectiveness of related targets has begun to deteriorate. Based on the trend, some positions are retained, but as the cost-effectiveness weakens, the positions are gradually reduced.

As for pharmaceutical stocks, with the continuous decline in the past three years and the influence of a series of domestic and international factors, pharmaceutical stocks are already in a relatively cheap state. At the same time, due to the logic of aging, the related demand will be in a state of stable growth in the future. Once a certain opportunity is triggered, pharmaceutical stocks are expected to achieve large excess returns. For consumer stocks, Liu Yue is more optimistic about the future economy and believes that related consumer goods are expected to have a wave of opportunities. For the new energy industry, he believes that the huge investment in the past has brought about the industry's internal circulation, but it has also won the world's leading industrial level. Once the decline in industry production capacity matches the turning point of global demand, coupled with the extremely low position and valuation level, the overall industry will still have relatively large excess opportunities. (CIS)

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