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citic securities: a big reversal in expectations, a big turning point in the market

we are currently in the transitional stage from an expected major reversal to a major turning point in the market, with low p/b and domestic demand recovery as the core. after the price signal is confirmed and the market reaches a major turning point, we will start an annual level with the credit cycle rising again as the core feature. in a bull market, institutional investors will have better entry opportunities.

the innovation of monetary tools and the politburo meeting's stance on real estate at the end of september both significantly exceeded market expectations. the scale of incremental fiscal policy during the year may be relatively mild, but the direction of use may be significantly expanded, and the turning point of price signals is expected to arrive early. judging from the market characteristics, institutional investors have significantly increased their positions in a-shares recently, but retail investors have entered the market more rapidly. the pulse-like rise is still mainly driven by expectations and funds, supplemented by verification of fundamentals.

in terms of allocation ideas, there are two main lines in the market transition stage: low p/b style revaluation and valuation restoration of the domestic demand sector. it is recommended to downplay dividends and go overseas. after the market reaches a major turning point, the market led by institutions is expected to gradually return, and by then the two major sectors of high-quality growth and domestic demand are expected to continue to dominate.

guotai junan securities: the stock index is expected to continue to rise

the current weak economic data and growth expectations will hardly have a substantial impact on the stock market in the short term. instead, they will further strengthen policy expectations. the driving force of this round of stock market conditions comes from the decline in risk-free interest rates, which promotes the entry of incremental funds into the market, and the change in investors' expectations for risk prospects, which boosts risk appetite. optimistic expectations will continue to push up the stock market, and the shanghai stock exchange is expected to rise upward in 2021-2022. annual operating area. the rhythm first increased and then fluctuated, and the decision came at the end of the year. heavyweight stocks are rapidly filling the valuation depression, and excess returns are optimistic about growth. it is currently recommended to focus on sectors that benefit from falling risk-free interest rates and increased risk appetite.

huatai securities: tactically optimistic, focus on low-level products to make up for gains

judging from the performance of offshore chinese stocks during the holidays, it is expected that a-shares will still be popular in the short term after the holiday. what is more important is the trading strategy after the market opens. the current market is in a stage where the relationship between capital supply and demand has improved, but credit recovery has not yet been clear. the preference for incremental funds may be the "wind vane" for market interpretation. the allocation is recommended to focus on the dual lines of incremental funds and policy drivers. among the sectors with relatively low growth and decline since september 24 and low valuation level, the sectors favored by foreign investors include white appliances/kitchen appliances/consumer electronics/pharmaceutical business, etc.; traditional leveraged funds prefer but the current sector financing balance/ sectors whose free-flow market capitalization ratio is at a relatively low level and still have room to reach the highs before may include energy metals/small metals/photovoltaics, etc.; potential policy-driven sectors; including real estate chain/old trade-in/new infrastructure, etc.

shenwan hongyuan securities: objective and calm thinking after the "lightning bull"

foreign capital, trading funds, and small and medium-sized investments all have low positions, and they are all pricing optimistic expectations in the short term. optimistic expectations such as buffalo, policy bull, and fundamental bull are all fermenting. reaffirm the judgment that a shares will see a reversal in the mid-term. this time it may really be a "policy bottom", because the visibility of a performance bottom in the second half of 2025 has increased significantly. a-shares have always been bullish on the long side and short on the short side. driven by funds in the short term, the reversal logic has also become the material of the "lightning bull". during the national day holiday, hong kong stocks rose faster than a-shares, which at least proved that foreign investors were optimistic and the bullish forces were still exerting their strength. a-shares may rise intensively after the holiday to repair the price comparison relationship.

china merchants securities: where is the main line if it is going to be prosperous?

the unexpected policy in late september is the key to driving this round of market surge, and the strength of subsequent policies determines the height of this market. at present, the strategy with a higher winning rate is to buy the industry leader csi a50 or 300 quality. with the aging of the population, national security is still the direction with the largest space. security-related fields such as artificial intelligence, medicine, military industry, and autonomous controllability are the main lines that can be considered in the medium term. the representative index can be science and technology 50. etf is the main source of incremental funds in this round and is expected to form subsequent positive feedback. if the policy is effective and the economic recovery is relatively clear, it is recommended to pay attention to the leaders of various industries related to the economy; and if there are clear industrial trends, then space is more important. currently, foreign investors are covering their chinese asset positions and are paying attention to the impact of rmb exchange rate fluctuations on the pace of foreign capital covering chinese assets.

bank of china international: strive to go long

the a-share market is in the ascendant during the year. with the restoration and verification of high-frequency data, the market will return to the upward channel. in the fourth quarter, a-shares are expected to usher in an excellent absolute return market window period during the year. a-shares still have a high allocation and price-performance ratio. after the holidays, the industry configuration of "procyclical + high beta" will be adhered to. we can focus on the varieties in the investment chain that benefit from real estate policy-driven and better supply and demand patterns; the varieties in consumer goods that are expected to recover first and are catalyzed by multiple logics; the technology chain that has "procyclical" attributes and growth elasticity, as well as those with high a beta brokerage firm. it is expected that the plan to increase the valuation of the net-breaking sector will also help re-price undervalued high-quality assets.

everbright securities: from beta to alpha

with the active implementation of policies, the market has risen significantly recently, and the market's "money-making effect" has returned significantly. at present, we need to pay attention to the implementation of policies and economic data. reviewing the mid-term market conditions in the past few years, after a short-term market rises rapidly, the market usually turns to a volatile upward trend. the overall market index still has the opportunity to rise, but investment opportunities will gradually shift from β to α. the choice of investment structure in the future may will be more critical. it is expected that the market style will be balanced. for sentiment-oriented industries, it is recommended to focus on components, black home appliances, and communication equipment (internet of things). for pro-cyclical industries, it is recommended to focus on cement, insurance, and liquor. hong kong stocks are recommended to continue to pay attention to investment products with greater upward flexibility such as hang seng technology.

west china securities: the background and driving force behind the launch of this round of “new quality cattle”

this round of "new quality bull" market has shifted from policy expectations as the core driving force, and incremental funds have boosted the market to form a bull market atmosphere. it is currently in the first stage of "new quality bull". a subsequent package of incremental policy implementation measures will be introduced one after another, and the policy will enter a "honeymoon period", and there is still room for domestic and foreign funds to increase their allocation of a-shares. currently in the first stage of "new quality bull", arranging "brokerage firms" and "ultra-low-price stocks" is the best strategy at this stage. in terms of style configuration, high-quality consumption and growth are expected to go hand in hand. pay attention to the themes of large consumption, high-quality growth, restructuring and mergers and acquisitions that benefit from policy efforts.

kaiyuan securities: a-share market rebounded strongly, sorting out advantageous strategies

there have been 10 rounds of strong rebounds in history, and the policy-catalyzed index has reversed at the bottom. residents' funds have entered the market and new funds have brought incremental funds to the market, helping the market extend from a period of rapid growth to a period of sustained growth. historical experience shows that during the rapid rebound period, focus on the sub-new stock index and loss-making stock index, and during the sustained rise period, focus on the low-priced stock index. the policy side provides investors with convenient conditions for entering the market. as the money-making effect increases, the market will welcome more incremental funds, and the market is expected to continue into the rising period. the strategy of low-priced stocks deserves attention.

guohai securities: things are changing

the current policies have clear intentions to stabilize the economy, real estate, and expectations, and the frequency and rhythm are of "historic significance." october 2024 will be an important window period for the release of my country's fiscal policy. macro liquidity has entered the stage of sino-us resonance easing, from loose money to loose credit, which is expected to reverse the continued decline of social financing and m1. stock market liquidity takes the lead, mainly reflected in the replenishment of foreign capital and the return of active funds. reviewing the market interpretation after four typical policy and liquidity changes (1999, 2008, 2014, 2019), trading volume is an important indicator for tracking valuation trends. from a structural point of view, flexible varieties such as growth and securities companies benefit the most. driven by policies and liquidity, industry allocations are tilted toward flexible varieties + oversold growth. in the fourth quarter, industry allocation recommendations focus on securities, pharmaceuticals, biology, and computers.