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on september 30, 2024 local time, a car was destroyed after an israeli attack in khan younis, gaza strip.

the new round of palestinian-israeli conflict has been going on for a full year now. in recent times, israel's military strategic focus has shifted from the war in gaza in the south to the fight against hezbollah in lebanon in the north. after launching multiple air strikes in lebanon, in the early morning of october 1, the israel defense forces claimed to have launched a "limited ground operation" against hezbollah targets in southern lebanon. on the evening of the same day, iran launched a large-scale missile attack on israel in retaliation for a series of israeli actions. on october 5, israeli prime minister netanyahu gave a speech stating that israel has the right to defend itself and respond to iranian attacks, which is what israel is about to do.

all this has brought about major changes in the manner and intensity of the conflict, making the palestinian-israeli conflict more tragic and making the outside world full of worries about the conflict escalating into a full-scale regional war. this risk is exactly what united nations secretary-general guterres said in his speech at the 79th united nations general assembly: "the war in gaza may drag the entire region into it. the lebanese people, the israeli people and the people of the world cannot afford to let lebanon become another gaza.”

in the past year since the outbreak of the palestinian-israeli conflict, bloody conflicts and political violence have been rampant. the methods of conflict have been constantly renovated and the scope of conflict spillover has continued to expand. the "axis of resistance" led by iran has become a camp-based confrontation with israel and the united states. drones, artificial intelligence the frequent use of new technological means such as information technology and information technology coexists with the continued decline of international morality. the international system and international order are powerless to restrain violence and resolve conflicts. in particular, the bizarre picture of advanced military technological means serving barbaric and primitive violent conflicts has made the palestinian-israeli conflict it focuses on the serious regression of today's international relations, international order and global governance.

the formation and spread of “palestinian-israeli conflict syndrome”

the "fertile crescent" where palestine is located is the birthplace of human civilization. ancient civilizations such as the ancient mesopotamia civilization and the assyrian civilization, as well as the three world monotheistic religions of judaism, christianity and islam, were all nurtured and matured in this area. however, one year after the outbreak of the palestinian-israeli conflict, the continued escalation and spillover of the conflict, and the escalating confrontation between the "axis of resistance" led by israel and iran, have reduced the "fertile crescent" in the eastern mediterranean to war and violence. the diffuse place of the four battles. the regional political and security crises caused by the palestinian-israeli conflict, as well as the ideological and ethical disputes caused in regional and global politics, have formed a "palestinian-israeli conflict syndrome" that is confusing, helpless and even disappointing.

since the 20th century, the arab-israeli conflict and the palestinian-israeli conflict itself have been a conflict syndrome. they are the product of the decline and disintegration of the ottoman empire in modern times and the middle east being hijacked by colonialism and imperialism into the process of world history. it is also the response of the international system to the product of a series of failed arrangements in the middle east. the palestinian-israeli conflict is rooted in the territorial disputes that occurred when the two sides were building nation-states in the same region. however, it is essentially a historical legacy of the failure of the colonial mandate and the policy of divide and rule. it is also closely related to the manipulation of world powers such as the united kingdom, france, the united states, and the soviet union. inseparable, it is also intertwined with the complex ethnic and religious conflicts and geopolitical disputes in the middle east.

the new round of palestinian-israeli conflict is essentially a continuation of this historical process. all the subjects, roots, hatreds, and contradictions of this conflict have their own distorted logic.

——during this year, israel took every possible and powerful attack on hamas, hezbollah, the houthis armed forces and their supporter iran, and then went further and further down the road of extreme violence and political paranoia. , itself has also fallen into a profound crisis of internal and external difficulties.

——during this year, as the main battlefield of the conflict, gaza was reduced to a devastated "hell on earth" due to israel's indiscriminate bombing and sweeping raids. tens of thousands of palestinian people were devastated, and the hamas organization was devastated. blow.

——during this year, the border conflicts between hezbollah in lebanon and israel continued and evolved into israel’s brutal attack on hezbollah. hezbollah’s leadership and organizational network were close to paralysis.

——during this year, the houthi armed forces harassed western and israeli targets in the red sea. the conflicts between the united states, israel and the houthi armed forces continued, resulting in a red sea crisis that seriously affected the security of world shipping and supply chains.

——during this year, the political confrontation, military conflict, and security game between israel and iran continued to escalate. israel’s bombing of the iranian embassy in syria triggered both sides to attack each other’s homeland. senior officials from hamas, hezbollah, and the iranian revolutionary guards continued to the land was cleared by israel in an extremely humiliating way, and iran fell into serious passivity.

——during this year, the neighboring countries of the palestinian-israeli conflict such as syria, jordan, egypt, and yemen were severely affected by the spillover of the palestinian-israeli conflict. security risks continued to rise, and economic and social losses were serious. in particular, israel’s bombing of syria has become a major issue for the palestinians. as has been the norm since the conflict, jordan is suffering in the middle of the confrontation between israel and iran.

——during this year, the united states still pursued the so-called "controllable conflict" policy. while providing unconditional and strong support to israel, it also deterred anti-israel forces such as iran by increasing its military presence, and used regional allies to mediate negotiations in order to achieve conflict control.

——during this year, western societies in the united states and europe were severely torn politically due to the palestinian-israeli conflict. there were conflicts and riots between palestinian supporters and israeli supporters. the coexistence of islamophobia and anti-semitism intensified western ideology and conflict of opposing values.

——during this year, the international community was unable to stop the escalation of the palestinian-israeli conflict and the spread of bloody violence. the authority of the united nations was severely disrespected by israel. the principles of unity of major powers and collective security principles of the united nations security council encountered severe challenges. in turn, the palestinian-israeli conflict has become a reflection of the crisis of international order and the failure of global governance.

……

in short, the "palestinian-israeli conflict syndrome" is a stubborn conflict disease jointly created by the "axis of resistance" led by israel and iran, and has spread and permeated the middle east and the international community. the sorrow of the unbridled land has also revealed the scars of the century that modern civilization and world order cannot heal.

on october 3, 2024 local time, in the palestinian gaza strip, the palestinian-israeli conflict continued, and israeli troops were conducting ground operations.

the israeli-palestinian conflict is a political tragedy with no winners

the entire palestinian area has only more than 27,000 square kilometers of land, but it has led to more than a century of conflict between the arab nation, palestine and israel, which can be described as one of the greatest political tragedies in the modern world. five middle east wars have broken out between arab and israeli sides in history, and the nature, scale, and impact of the new round of palestinian-israeli conflict can undoubtedly be characterized as the "sixth middle east war." (see liu zhongmin: "the new round of palestinian-israeli conflict is a more complex "sixth middle east war"")

the new round of palestinian-israeli conflict is a continuation of history, but this ancient conflict has shown complexity and new characteristics that are different from the past, and is highlighted by the more radical thoughts and behaviors of hamas and israel, especially israel's the preference for extreme violence and political paranoia are serious; the regional conflicts surrounding the palestinian-israeli conflict have transformed from conflicts between arab countries and israel to conflicts between israel and the "axis of resistance" led by iran, while non-state actors in arab countries have become the mainstay of the conflict. main actors; the united states is struggling to balance between maintaining overall strategic contraction and being forced to increase troops to deter the "axis of resistance" and inhibit the escalation of conflicts; the intervention of intelligence warfare, technological warfare, and cyber warfare is combined with brutal targeted killings and other means , which has a complex impact on the balance of power, the ductility of the battlefield, the cruelty of war, the spread of war, and the competition for war discourse;…

however complex this conflict may be, there is no doubt that it is a political tragedy with no winners.

first of all, hamas and israel, the direct parties to the new round of palestinian-israeli conflict, are both losers in the gaza conflict.

although hamas has brought the palestinian-israeli conflict back to the center of middle east politics and the international community in an extremely brutal way, this conflict has not only cost gaza and the entire palestine a heavy price because it is set against the background of the regression of the international order and the weakening of international restraints. , and the situation in gaza and the west bank is likely to be even more disadvantaged in the future due to israel's political paranoia.

although israel has an absolute military advantage and has severely damaged hamas's effective strength, it has not only failed to achieve its three goals of rescuing the hostages, eliminating hamas, and no longer posing a threat to israel in gaza, but it has also paid the price of deepening security difficulties and losses in economic and social development. this is why netanyahu's wartime cabinet continues to perpetuate the conflict and maintain fragile political legitimacy by attacking hezbollah, the houthis, and confronting iran. israel's outcome is undoubtedly a tactical victory, a strategic failure, and a security dilemma that is even more difficult to resolve.

secondly, the "axis of resistance" led by iran has suffered severe setbacks and even a complete failure. iran's export of revolution and ideological diplomacy have reached an unsustainable end.

before 1979, iran and israel not only had long-term friendship in history, but also worked closely together as allies of the united states in contemporary times. the conflict between the two sides began with the iranian islamic revolution in 1979, when anti-americanism and anti-israel became an important part of iran's ideology. since then, the conflicts between the two sides have continued to intensify over the middle east peace process, especially the palestinian-israeli issue, the iranian nuclear crisis and the iran nuclear agreement, the "arab spring" and especially the syrian civil war. the tit-for-tat confrontation between the two sides in the military and security fields has become increasingly prominent. since the 1980s, support for islamist forces such as hezbollah in lebanon and hamas in palestine is not only a product of iran's revolutionary diplomacy, but also the result of iran cultivating important agents to counter israel. its important strategic consideration is to compete for the palestinian issue. the right to speak and expand its influence on the middle east and the islamic world.

in the new round of the palestinian-israeli conflict, although its main participants, hamas, hezbollah, the houthis armed forces, and the iraqi popular mobilization forces, are important forces that influence regional affairs, iran has triggered a comprehensive conflict with israel and directly participated in the palestinian-israeli conflict. conflict is not iran’s strategic choice. because an all-out war with israel is not in line with iran's domestic internal and external strategies of improving the economy and people's livelihood and improving the international environment.

in the early stages of the conflict, hamas, hezbollah, the houthis armed forces, and the iraqi popular mobilization forces harassed israel, which once put iran in a relatively favorable position. however, as hamas and hezbollah have suffered heavy losses, and their leaders have been targeted for elimination by israel, iran has been slow to respond and has limited means, causing the conflict to continue to develop in a direction that is not conducive to iran and the "resistance axis". and test iran's strategic choices. abandoning the country and supporting the "axis of resistance" forces to fight against israel at all costs is obviously not in line with iran's internal and external strategies; abandoning the "axis of resistance" and constantly compromising will make iran lose face and lose its confidence in the "axis of resistance" leadership and credibility. in essence, the palestinian-israeli conflict has become another litmus test for iran's revolutionary diplomacy after the 1980-1988 iran-iraq war, but it may not escape the fate of failing again.

on the evening of october 1, 2024, local time, iran launched 200 missiles at israel.

thirdly, the arab islamic world is gradually drifting away from the palestinian-israeli conflict, and its influence is limited.

in the new round of palestinian-israeli conflict, in stark contrast to iran, the arab islamic world is relatively indifferent to the conflict. although arab islamic countries continue to condemn and oppose israel, most countries are relatively restrained. in particular, they have been unable to form a joint force to fight israel, and they have not adopted historical economic sanctions, oil embargoes and other means. the reasons are very complex, including the decline of pan-arab nationalism and arab countries' increasing emphasis on national interests. it is also related to the arduous development and transformation tasks of arab countries since the "arab spring" and their low enthusiasm for intervening in regional conflicts. it is also related to the palestinian the problem is complex and complicated, and the arab countries have been involved in it for a long time but have achieved little results and are tired of it. in addition, many arab countries are allies of the united states and are seeking to normalize relations with israel under the promotion of the united states' "abraham accords." this is an important source of arab countries' reluctance to intervene in the palestinian-israeli conflict.

the arab islamic world's drift away from the palestinian-israeli conflict certainly has many negative impacts, but it also has its rational and positive implications. historically, many arab countries have "played the palestinian card" to pursue their own interests, which is also an important reason for complicating the palestinian issue and has even seriously harmed palestinian interests. in this sense, although the arab countries' gradual fading away from the palestinian-israeli conflict is not conducive to the arab countries' joint opposition to israel, it may be the inevitable result of this conflict. for both palestine and israel, peace between palestine and israel is possible only if both israel and palestine are no longer subject to external manipulation, and both sides bid farewell to extremism and paranoia and return to rationality.

finally, the new round of palestinian-israeli conflict is also a funnel for the continuous loss of us hegemony in the middle east and world leadership.

in the new round of the palestinian-israeli conflict, the united states’ policies essentially reflect its desire to maintain hegemony in the middle east and the contradictory dilemma of limited power resources. on the one hand, it has provided continuous and systematic support to israel in economic, military, diplomatic and other aspects, and constantly created obstacles for ceasefire and cessation of war at the united nations level, thereby allowing the conflict to continue and making it difficult for the united nations to achieve ceasefire, cessation of violence, and political settlement. on the other hand, the united states has repeatedly increased its troops in the middle east to deter anti-israel forces and prevent conflicts from escalating into regional wars, thereby endangering the united states' global strategy centered on strategic competition among great powers.

in this conflict, the hard power of the united states to conduct military operations and the soft power of the united states to mediate and resolve conflicts and play a leading role in the international system are in trouble. the united states lacks the ability, ambition and will to change the pattern of the middle east like it launched the gulf war, afghanistan war, and iraq war. it also lacks the moral height and national image to comprehensively lead the middle east peace process and create the oslo accords.

the outbreak of the first arab-israeli conflict in 1948 was a direct result of the fading hegemony of the british empire from the middle east, and the outbreak of a new round of palestinian-israeli conflict is no longer closely related to the power and ambition of the united states in the middle east. in this sense, the new round of chaos in the palestinian-israeli conflict and the weakness of the international order are also clear signs of the decline of us hegemony, or at least of its serious lack of leadership.

in short, the new round of palestinian-israeli conflict, a primitive conflict that occurs in modern society, is essentially a conflict between human modern rationality and primitive barbaric nature. it is a tragedy for both palestine and israel, a tragedy for the middle east, and a tragedy for the world and mankind.