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before the holiday, the three major indexes collectively closed up, and the money-making effect in the market was excellent. in terms of industries, sectors such as diversified finance, alcohol, securities firms, software, semiconductors, catering and tourism were among the top performers, with increases of more than 30%; sectors such as electricity, oil and gas, highways, telecommunications, land transportation, and precious metals performed steadily. all have increased, but the increase is not as high as the broader market index. the shanghai composite index rose by more than 20% and has entered a technical bull market.

macroscopically, the number of new non-farm jobs in the united states in september far exceeded expectations, suppressing expectations of a sharp interest rate cut by the federal reserve; central policy has turned to boosting the confidence of residents and businesses, the market's expectations for economic growth have significantly reversed, and risk appetite has increased significantly. many international investment banks have upgraded the chinese stock market to an overweight rating, overseas funds are actively buying chinese assets, and hong kong stocks and related etfs are rising.

the logic of this article

1. investment outlook

2. recent market review

3. market capital trends

4. market temperature

1. investment outlook

strategy outlook: the market is very pleased with the implementation of major policies.after the central bank, the state administration of financial supervision, and the china securities regulatory commission all struck a chord, cutting reserve requirements, cutting interest rates, lowering existing mortgage interest rates, and encouraging long-term funds to enter the market, the politburo meeting once again set the tone. in just a few days, market expectations almost made a 180-degree turn, with multiple sectors hitting daily limits, major indexes almost seeing breakthrough gains, and trading volume increasing from more than 500 billion in the past to 2.6 trillion.

however, it should be noted that this rapid rising market is not friendly to ordinary investors, and they may be thrown off if they hesitate just a little. after this round of sharp rise, most of the incremental funds have entered the market. the first wave of main rise may have ended, and it may enter a period of shock adjustment. even if you fail to find a good buying point, don’t worry too much. you can patiently accumulate chips at low levels and wait for the arrival of the second main wave.

investment opportunities lie in highly elastic stocks that were oversold in the early stage. looking back at past history, the greater the decline, the greater the power of recovery. you can use core assets favored by institutions and foreign investors as the bottom position, and the remaining positions are allocated to semiconductors, new energy, etc. to enhance offensive force.

technical perspective: the market continues its strong rise, and the mid-term market may continue its upward trend.the shanghai composite index rose rapidly, breaking through the pressure level of the half-year line and the annual line in just a few days. although there was a correction during the session, there was still a large amount of funds actively taking over. as long as the subsequent volume can maintain the recent continuous increasing trend, the rapid rising pattern may be expected to continue. judging from the daily macd indicator, an offline golden cross has appeared, and the red column is rapidly enlarging, indicating that the upward force is still strengthening. the trends of the shenzhen component index and the chinext index are generally similar, but the upward angle is sharper, mainly due to the larger decline in the early stage and the greater room for growth.

market direction:ling ji, vice minister of commerce, said at the world new energy vehicle conference that we will maintain an open and cooperative attitude as always and are committed to accelerating international cooperation in the industrial chain and supply chain of new energy vehicles. we will actively participate in the formulation of relevant international standards and promote the coordination mechanism of domestic and foreign standards for new energy vehicles, charging facilities, and power batteries.

at the 2024 china computing power conference, the cumulative signed amount was 23.12 billion yuan. among them, there are 8 framework agreements with an amount of 9 billion yuan; 9 cooperation agreements with an amount of 9.92 billion yuan; and 5 strategic agreements with an amount of 4.2 billion yuan. the total scale of computing power center racks in use across the country exceeds 8.3 million standard racks, and the total scale of computing power reaches 246eflops (2460 trillion floating-point operations), ranking among the top in the world.

shanghai has decided to issue “le·shanghai” service coupons in four areas including catering, accommodation, movies, and sports. this round of service consumption vouchers has invested 500 million yuan in municipal fiscal funds. according to the consumption proportion of each field and the needs of citizens, the consumption voucher funds are allocated as follows: 360 million yuan for catering, 90 million yuan for accommodation, 30 million yuan for movies, and 20 million yuan for sports. . specifically, you can continue to pay attention to the following three lines:

(1) the stock price is supported by performance, the valuation is relatively low, and it is expected to become the main line of the new energy vehicle sector:judging from this year's sales performance, new energy vehicles have far outperformed the market, with penetration rates increasing rapidly. due to the low valuation of the new energy vehicle sector itself, there is a certain demand for supplementary growth, and good performance is expected to support the sector out of changyang and become the new main line of this bull market.

(2) the semiconductor sector has stronger upward elasticity, is generally favored by investors, and is expected to rise rapidly:semiconductors themselves have strong elasticity and grow faster in bull markets, so they are favored by ordinary investors. huawei is about to release a series of stimulating news, which is expected to continue to stimulate market sentiment and become an important driving force for the sector's rise.

(3) policies actively subsidize, market expectations have reversed, foreign capital favors large consumer sectors, and institutions have heavy positions:as china's core asset, the large consumer sector has always been favored by foreign capital and institutions. in this bull market, foreign capital is the most important source of incremental funds. at present, policies have recognized the importance of subsidizing residents, and many regions have begun to issue consumer vouchers in large quantities. the large consumer sector is very likely to experience a davis double-click with valuations and performance rising at the same time.

2. recent market review

(1) a-share market

a-shares collectively closed in the red, the eight major indexes rose rapidly, and the money-making effect in the market was excellent. from the perspective of market style, mid-cap stocks performed best, with the csi 500 rising by 27.67%, while the shanghai stock exchange 50 only rose by 23.38% during the same period. the growth performance is far better than the value. the growth rate of gem index and science and technology 50 index reached 41.55% and 34.55%. the growth rate is extremely amazing, far ahead of other indexes. the shanghai composite index rose by more than 20% and has entered a technical bull market.

from the perspective of shenwan's primary industry, within 6 trading days, 31 primary sectors rose, and the profit-making effect was relatively significant. the top gainers are concentrated in food and beverage, beauty care, non-bank finance, real estate, building materials and other fields. the oversold sectors in the early stage have seen greater gains, mainly due to the implementation of stimulus policies and the market's expectations for future economic growth and consumption recovery. twist. the performance of most sectors within six trading days was stronger than that of the previous week, and 31 sectors continued to rise or narrowed their declines. overall, the market conditions were very good within 6 trading days.

(2) fund market

within 6 trading days, the major fund indexes performed very well, mainly affected by the surge in the capital market. the lok fu index, national securities fund, and fund index all rose by more than 20%, which shows that the net values ​​of funds in the shenzhen and shanghai stock exchanges are recovering rapidly. among them, the lefu index is obviously stronger than the fund index, mainly because the performance of the shenzhen stock exchange is better than that of the shanghai stock exchange, the gem index is stronger than the science and technology innovation 50 index, and the shenzhen component index is stronger than the shanghai composite index. bond funds rose slightly by 0.09% in 6 trading days. although far inferior to stock funds, they maintained a steady increase.

within 6 trading days, the performance of the fund yield center was divided. the weekly return rates of stocks and hybrids are all above 10%, recovering most of the lost ground during the year in a single week. the weekly yield center of bond funds is -0.08%, which is different from the performance of bond fund index. some bond funds with longer duration have experienced sharp retracement. judging from the annual yield center, the yield centers of most fund types are rising. stock-type and hybrid funds rose by 14.30pct and 10.00pct respectively from the previous week, gradually approaching the break-even point. qdii and fof types also have certain degree increased.

three,fund trends in a-share and fund markets

(1) a-share market

there was a net inflow of main funds within 6 trading days. from the perspective of shenwan's first-level industries, there are 31 inflow industries, and all industries are experiencing net inflows. in the past five days, net inflows totaled 430.823 billion yuan, hitting the highest point in the past year. during the rapid rise in the stock market, funds are actively entering the market. among them, the net inflow of non-bank finance was 78.597 billion yuan, the net inflow of computers was 46.268 billion yuan, and the net inflow of 12 industries exceeded 10 billion yuan.

(2) fund market

within 6 trading days, 88 funds were opened for subscription, involving 33 fund companies including dacheng, dongcai, wells fargo, guangfa, huaan, ping an, southern, e fund, and china merchants, totaling 24.759 billion yuan. subscription funds include 23 active equity funds, 20 index funds, 23 bond funds, 17 fixed income + funds, 4 fof funds, and 1 currency fund. overall, the number and scale of subscriptions have increased during the rapid market upswing, but are still lagging slightly.

4. market temperature

judging from the quantile values ​​in the past five years, within six trading days, the valuations of the five major indexes have been significantly revised up, and only the valuation of the gem index has increased slightly. as the value style was suppressed, the shanghai composite index suffered the most serious damage, falling sharply by 5.19pct month-on-month. the shanghai composite 50/csi 300 also fell by a large margin. the gem index bottomed out and rebounded, and the science and technology innovation 50 fell back below the 1% quantile. close to the floor price again. generally speaking, the current price/performance ratio of a shares has declined, but it still shows good investment value.

judging from shenwan's first-level industry quantile value, since its listing, as of the close of september 30, a total of 31 sectors have had their valuations revised upward, with an average valuation quantile increase of 18.88pct. the non-bank financial, machinery and equipment, electronics, automobile and other sectors had the largest upward revisions, with a month-on-month increase of more than 30pct. this was mainly due to a complete reversal of market expectations, a sharp increase in risk appetite, and a sharp rise in the corresponding sectors. the median sector valuation is utilities (24.12%), which saw a significant increase in the median value.

from the perspective of 3-year stock-bond performance-price ratio, as of september 30, the ratio of the reciprocal p/e ratio of wind’s full a to the ten-year treasury bonds (2.16%) was 2.47, -0.54 month-on-month, while the historical average was 2.22, which was at a low level in the past 3 years. absolutely high, the historical quantile position is at 99.58% (that is, the price/performance ratio is higher than 99.58% of the time), with a month-on-month -0.42pct. the historical quantiles of stock and bond price-performance ratios of csi 300, csi 500, csi 800, and csi 1000 are respectively 87.19% (month-on-month -12.81pct), 89.94% (month-on-month -10.06pct), and 89.58% (month-on-month -10.42pct). ) and 88.32% (-11.68pct month-on-month). compared with the previous issue, the overall performance-price ratio of the stock market has declined, mainly due to the rise in government bond yields and the rapid recovery of the stock market. the seesaw effect of stocks and bonds is extremely significant, and a large amount of safe haven funds are returning from the bond market to the stock market; now buy and hold for 3 years the profit probability is 96.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.10pct; the 10y government bond interest rate is +8.60bp month-on-month.