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editor's note

the annual national day holiday is not only a consumption feast, but also a lens of economic vitality and a barometer of market confidence. during the long holiday, securities times reporters went deep into the front lines and visited the property market, automobile market, gold, mobile phones, liquor, catering, tourism and other industries, and launched a series of reports on "national day consumption survey" for the benefit of readers.

although the capital feast of liquor stocks has recently resumed, with the liquor sector rising by more than 30% in september, the consumer terminal has shown a different picture.

"while some surrounding sales stores are closed, the overall sales volume of liquor in our mall during the national day holiday this year is still relatively flat." during the national day holiday, the person in charge of sales at a large shopping mall in longhua district, shenzhen told reporters. "it's becoming more and more difficult for dealers to do business. during the national day holiday, although there was a certain sales volume of mid-to-high-end wines, the decline was obvious year-on-year." a dealer in futian district, shenzhen told reporters.

over the years, the "golden nine and silver ten" periods have been peak seasons for consumption. due to the increase in visits to relatives and friends, banquets and business gifts during the holidays, the demand for liquor consumption will increase significantly. the proportion of liquor sales during the "double festival" of mid-autumn festival and national day can often reach 10% of the entire year. 20%-30%. however, during this year's "double festival", market feedback was not as optimistic as expected.

currently, the performance of the secondary market of liquor stocks is in sharp contrast to the performance of terminal consumption. "the continued strong performance of the liquor sector shows that the capital market still has confidence in the liquor industry, but consumers' purchasing power and demand may weaken due to a variety of factors." several industry analysts said.

drink consumption remains flat

although it is currently in the peak consumption season, during this year's mid-autumn festival and national day, the liquor sales market has shown a "not prosperous during the peak season" situation.

the reporter saw from the liquor shelves of a large shopping mall in longhua district, shenzhen that some products of nationally famous liquors such as luzhou laojiao, xijiu, and kouzijiao had varying degrees of price discounts. for example, one of luzhou laojiao's liquor products launched the "1 yuan for more, get 1 free" campaign, and guojiao 1573 launched a 50 yuan discount for purchases over 1,000 yuan on the basis of the price of 1,050 yuan. some lesser-known liquor products have greater price discounts. colorful yingbin wine and laotan wine have launched the "buy 1 get 2 free" campaign.

"today's liquor sales are not as good as the previous year, and the decline in liquor sales during the mid-autumn festival and national day this year is even more obvious." the person in charge of sales in the above-mentioned shopping mall said, "some sales stores in the surrounding areas have closed down, and liquor sales are still relatively flat."

"this year's mid-to-high-end liquor is harder to sell than in previous years, and the overall performance is that the liquor market is sluggish." the person in charge of the mall's sales department also said.

"generally, consumers who need to hold banquets or send gifts to relatives and friends will place orders before the holiday." a dealer in futian district, shenzhen told reporters that before the national day holiday this year, most of the orders that were due to be taken were almost completed, and the overall sales volume was lower than expected.

the recent transaction prices of feitian moutai, an industry benchmark, have also fluctuated. today's wine price platform shows that the transaction price of loose bottles of feitian moutai dropped to a low of 2,200 yuan/bottle on september 25, and the transaction price of original boxes of feitian moutai also reached a recent low of 2,320 yuan/bottle on that day. subsequently, the transaction price of feitian moutai rebounded, but the price level has not yet returned to the pre-mid-autumn festival level. as of october 5, the transaction price of feitian moutai in loose bottles was 2,300 yuan/bottle, and in the original box, feitian moutai was 2,410 yuan/bottle.

in fact, the decline in high-end liquor prices did not start this year, but the attention has increased this year. li xunlei, chief economist of zhongtai international, said that the current decline in liquor prices is mainly caused by the downturn in the real estate cycle. when the real estate cycle enters a downward phase, it usually has a greater impact on the economy.

in addition, e-commerce platforms’ subsidies for liquor have a greater impact on offline liquor dealers. "after the liquor sold on online e-commerce platforms enters the '10 billion subsidy' campaign, the price is often cheaper than offline products and dealer stores, and online e-commerce directly delivers to your door, which is much cheaper than offline supermarkets and dealer stores. more convenient." said the person in charge of the above-mentioned shopping mall sales.

consumers pay more attention to cost-effectiveness

although the overall sales of liquor during this year's mid-autumn festival and national day "double holidays" were lower than expected, some low-priced liquor brands are favored by consumers. "currently, consumers' consumption concepts are becoming more and more rational, and consumers will consider the cost-effectiveness of products more when shopping." the person in charge of the sales of the above-mentioned shopping mall told reporters.

in fact, this is also a true portrayal of the current liquor consumption market. as the market consumption situation changes, the pursuit of high cost performance has become a new consumption trend.

according to the "2024 china liquor market mid-term research report" released by the china liquor industry association, in the first half of 2024, liquor market dealers and retailers reported that the top three price bands with the best market sales were 300 yuan-500 yuan, 100 yuan- 300 yuan, 100 yuan and below; the top three price bands of inversion degree are 800 yuan-1500 yuan, 500 yuan-800 yuan, and 300 yuan-500 yuan.

in response to this change, some liquor companies are actively developing products of different grades, focusing on cost-effectiveness and quality-price ratio. for example, in april 2023, moutai launched the first 100-yuan-priced sauce wine "taiyuan", priced at 156 yuan/bottle, and its sales that year exceeded 1 billion; in june 2023, guizhou xijiu launched a 100-yuan price there is a new product, yuanxi wine, with a suggested retail price of 188 yuan.

"low-price liquor is mainly driven by volume, and store profits have to rely on mid-to-high-end liquor." the above-mentioned dealer told reporters.

guoyuan securities said that in the past, the price of liquor was mainly based on the logic of price increase and consumption upgrading. but now, the market consumption situation has changed, and consumers’ current demand for cost-effectiveness has jumped to the core demand. in response to this change, the price logic of liquor is evolving into consumption. double rational logic with price.

in this context, guoyuan securities believes that under the background of rational consumption, consumers pay attention to the cost-effectiveness of products. famous wine companies with strong brand power and a wide range of product matrix are expected to benefit. liquor companies with strong brand power have a solid consumer base. as for famous wine companies with a wide price range and product matrix, their brand potential radiates downwards and they are expected to meet the rising consumer demand for cost-effectiveness.

consumption expectations are expected to improve

stimulated by favorable policies, investor sentiment has improved recently, and market expectations for the liquor industry have also improved. wind data shows that in september, the liquor sector rose by 31.74%, and the increase has been more obvious since late september. analysts believe that policy stimulus at the consumption level will help restore market confidence in the liquor industry.

on september 24, the state council information office held a press conference. pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, stated at the meeting that the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rate would be reduced, and the market benchmark interest rate would be driven downward; minimum down payment ratio; create new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market, etc.

wanlian securities believes that this meeting announced a series of policies to boost the property market, including lowering existing mortgage interest rates and lowering the down payment ratio for second homes. if housing prices can stabilize and rebound, it will be conducive to the restoration of residents' asset side, thereby enhancing their spending power. in addition, consumer industries, especially the liquor, home furnishing and real estate industries, have a clear positive correlation. if the real estate industry picks up, it is expected to drive demand for liquor, home furnishing and other consumer industries to pick up.

the meeting also announced a stock repurchase and holding increase refinancing tool to support listed companies and major shareholders in repurchasing and increasing stock holdings. the first phase is 300 billion yuan, with a loan interest rate of 2.25%. wanlian securities believes that listed companies and major shareholders with relatively high dividend yields will be more motivated to implement this tool to obtain interest margins and boost stock prices, which will be conducive to repairing the valuation of consumer segments with relatively high dividend yields.

the past development history of liquor shows that the cyclical changes in the industry are linked to macroeconomic trends. whether it is gdp growth, infrastructure investment, urban residents’ disposable income, and total social retail sales, they all have an important impact on the development of the liquor industry.

according to the research perspective of china merchants macro, the recent countercyclical regulatory policies have released further signals, and it is expected that the implementation progress of the previous policies will be significantly accelerated. the new special bond quotas during the year have basically been issued, and the physical workload of infrastructure-related projects can effectively improve the profitability of the midstream raw materials industry. a combination of trade-in and consumption-promoting policies will help the profit growth of the downstream consumer industry resume its upward trend.

editor: ye shuyun

proofreading: wang wei

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