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before the national day holiday, a-shares ushered in a "bull market", and the bond market, which had been singing all the way in the early period, also saw some new changes.

in the new fund issuance market, the fundraising scale of newly issued bond funds shrank in september, with the issuance scale accounting for only 65.10%, while the figure in august was 74.75%. in terms of market performance, many bond funds have made significant corrections in recent days. at the same time, during the long holiday, in order to prevent large amounts of funds from diluting holiday income, the debt funds of many fund companies have closed their doors to thank customers.

someone in the fund industry told reporters that this year's equity market has been volatile and downward, and investors' risk preferences have continued to shift significantly. low-risk assets that are relatively low-volatility and stable, such as dividends, high dividends, and debt funds, are welcomed by the market. the recent a-share bull market has surged, with a large amount of capital pouring into equity funds, and new debt funds showing signs of shrinking.

the proportion of issuance hit a new low in september, and bond market volatility intensified

in september, the equity market ushered in a bull market, and with the issuance of 10 products of csi a500, the scale of debt-based issuance decreased significantly. wind data shows that based on the date of fund establishment, march was the climax of fund issuance, with a total of 137 only one product was established, and then the number decreased month by month. in august, a total of 78 products were established, with an issuance share of 52.561 billion. in september, the new issuance market picked up as a whole, but the debt-based issuance share shrank to 56.696 billion, accounting for 65.10%. the proportion of scale in each month of this year is the lowest, with the data in august being 74.75%.

the reporter noticed that interest rate bonds have become a rare main product in the new fund issuance market in the second half of the year. among them, dongxing xingcheng interest rate bond a ranked at the top with an issuance share of 7.991 billion, sdic ubs qichen interest rate bond, dongfanghong the issuance shares of yiheng pure bond a and galaxy cfets 0-3-year political and financial bond index a3 products are both above 5 billion.

in addition to signs of shrinkage in new bond issuances, the increased volatility in the bond market has also become one of the recent changes. wind data shows that on september 27, data showed that treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the main 30-year contract falling by 2.56% and the main 10-year contract falling by 0.96%. at 15:20 on september 30, the yield on active 10-year government bonds was at 2.185%, down 6 bp, and the yield on ultra-long-term government bonds was at 2.37%, down 7 bp.

the huaan securities report believes that in the past, the bond market rarely experienced significant sharp declines after the release of major policies. after policy expectations have rebounded since 2020, the upward range of the bond market is usually within 10bp, and the correction time ranges from 3 trading days to a month; during the wave of financial management redemptions in november 2022, factors such as the optimization of epidemic prevention policies have made the bond market plummeted by about 10bp in a single day, but judging from the comprehensive decline of the bond market on september 26 and 27 this year, the decline in the yield to maturity of 10y government bonds was relatively unprecedented.

there are still some hot-selling debt funds that have been closed in advance

generally speaking, the issuance scale accounts for a high proportion, and early settlement of funds is one of the popular features of debt funds. although the scale of bond fund issuance shrank in september, there are still a few small hot-selling debt funds that have funds to buy in large quantities and close funds in advance. . golden eagle fund issued an announcement showing that its golden eagle chinabond 0-3 year policy financial bond index fund has ended its fundraising ahead of schedule. the deadline for fundraising has been advanced from december 17, 2024 to september 23, 2024. the advance time is close to 3 months.

green juli enhanced one-month holding period bonds will launch fundraising on july 3, 2024, and the fundraising deadline will be advanced from september 30, 2024 to september 18, 2024. starting from september 19, 2024 (including that day), investors’ applications for fund subscription will no longer be accepted.

the original fundraising deadline for hang seng qianhai hengyuan zhaoli bond securities investment fund is november 29, 2024. it was decided to advance the fund raising deadline to september 10, 2024, and will no longer accept subscription applications from investors from september 11, 2024.

the early closing of multiple debt funds reflects that investors’ expectations for future bond returns are greater than equity funds. wang huaizhen of golden eagle fund said that the macroeconomic environment may still be the core factor supporting the bond market. the current economy is still in a period of transformation, the overall inflation level is low, and considering that the real interest rate level after price adjustment is still high, monetary policy is relatively loose in a countercyclical adjustment environment. due to downward pressure on overall corporate profits and a certain degree of excess production capacity in some industries, industrial product prices are still hovering at the bottom. overall, short- and medium-term interest rates are still an important allocation direction for safe funds.

frequent restrictions on large-amount subscriptions before holidays

the reporter noticed that during the national day holiday, many bond foundations frequently restricted large-amount subscriptions. china southern fund even issued purchase restriction announcements for 7 bond foundations on the same day.

taking the launch of southern junior’s medium and short-term debt bonds as an example, recently, southern fund announced that starting from september 27, 2024, if individual investors make a single subscription for the fund’s class a, class c and class e funds in a single fund account on a single day if the share exceeds 500,000 yuan (excluding 500,000 yuan, the application amount for subscription, fixed investment and conversion transfer is calculated together, and the application amount for each type of fund share is calculated separately, the same below), then only the 500,000 yuan subscription will be confirmed successful, any excess will be confirmed as failure.

e fund also announced that e fund anyu 60-day holding period bond securities investment fund has adjusted large-amount subscriptions. a single fund account has accumulated subscriptions from all sales agencies in a single day (including regular fixed-amount investments and conversions and transfers) of class a fund shares of this fund or the amount of class c fund shares shall not exceed 500,000 yuan (inclusive). for amounts exceeding 500,000 yuan (exclusive), confirmation will be failed.

recently, e fund, southern fund, boshi fund, qianhai kaiyuan fund, huaan fund and other companies have issued purchase restriction announcements on their bond funds. data show that as of september 27, 1,365 debt funds in the entire market (shares are calculated separately, the same below) have successively suspended subscriptions "closed to thank customers", and 1,536 debt funds have suspended large-amount subscriptions.

in fact, every holiday, funds will turn to low-risk assets for safe haven. this is also related to the fact that the coupons of commodity-based, debt-based and other products are still calculated on a daily basis during holidays. fund companies, through purchase restrictions, help alleviate the dilution of earnings caused by the influx of large amounts of capital.

fund industry insiders told reporters that in order to prevent large funds from diluting holiday returns, fund companies restrict large-amount fund subscriptions before holidays. this is actually a common practice for debt funds (especially short-term debt funds) and commodity funds. because there is a time difference of 2-3 days after subscribing for shares and funds to start investing. if a large amount of funds is stuck to subscribe before the holiday, the fund manager will be unable to use the new funds for investment, and the sudden increase in fund size will cause dilution of the original holder's earnings.

editor: wang yunpeng

proofreading: li lingfeng