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catalyzed by market improvements and internal and external policies, chinese assets have made a comprehensive and substantial counterattack. after a-shares hit a record high in transaction volume on monday, hong kong stocks surged on wednesday, ushering in a good start to october. so, how do major foreign-funded institutions with different perspectives view the subsequent trends of the chinese market?

regarding the recent surge in china's stock market, ray dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund bridgewater associates, "godfather of emerging markets" mark mobius,blackrock、goldman sachsand manulife investment management have spoken out.

dalio’s latest statement is that if china’s decision-makers can deliver on measures that “far exceed” their commitments, this round of economic stimulus measures will become a historic turning point. considering that chinese assets are still very cheap, multiple factors have ignited the market's "animal spirit" (animaspirit), and a large number of investors have entered the market to hunt for dips.

marc franklin, executive director of manulife investment management multi-asset international (mast) and senior portfolio manager of multi-asset allocation in asia, said in an exclusive interview with the paper that the hong kong and mainland china markets are expected to rebound sharply in the short term. "with very low positions and discounted valuations, some international investors will be encouraged to increase their investment in mainland and hong kong assets."

"spurred by large-scale favorable policies, china's stock market has regained its vitality." managementtempleton emerging markets fund, mark mobius, known as the "godfather of emerging markets", said that many investors who were waiting for the opportunity to enter the market seized the opportunity, both out of fear of missing out on opportunities and because of the valuation of chinese stocks. really cheap.

in addition, blackrock's recent weekly report showed that it raised its rating on chinese stocks from neutral to overweight. goldman sachs pointed out in its latest research report that following the recent loosening of monetary policy by the people's bank of china, it is expected to further loosen policy in the remainder of this year and next year.

dalio: china’s current round of economic stimulus measures may become a historic turning point

regarding the recent surge in the chinese market, dalio posted on linkedin that if china’s decision-makers can deliver on measures that “far exceed” their commitments, this round of economic stimulus measures will become a historic turning point, comparable to europe’s 2012 former central bank chief mario draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro. with the help of a series of policies, draghi finally succeeded in rescuing the european debt crisis that year.

"considering that chinese assets are still very cheap, multiple factors have ignited the market's 'animal spirit' (animaspirit), and a large number of investors have entered the market to hunt for dips." dalio said.

dalio further pointed out that in order to achieve what he considers "perfect deleveraging", china needs to restructure its assets while creating money and credit in a balanced way (lowering interest rates below the inflation rate and nominal growth rate) to reduce debt burden without triggering excessive inflation. and this "reflation" move would make cash less attractive than other assets, encouraging people to take risks.

"doing these things will rekindle the enthusiasm for 'buying the dip' and the 'animal spirits.' we are now clearly seeing this happening (in china)." dalio believes.

manulife investments: hong kong and mainland china markets will rebound sharply in the short term

in an exclusive interview with the paper, manulife investment’s marc franklin said that china’s recent policy measures show that policymakers from multiple departments in china have announced coordinated support for the economy and financial markets in the most urgent manner. "we expect the hong kong and mainland china markets to rebound sharply in the short term as shorts are forced to aggressively cover short positions. we expect the impact of real gold and silver buying flows to be minor."

"these policies are expected to be maintained until the end of the year so that the mainland economy can achieve the 5% gdp growth target. beyond that, we expect the impact on the real economy to be mainly cyclical/short-term. the mainland economy will still face longer-term challenges include stress in the banking system, overvaluation of residential real estate and excess inventory," marc franklin further said.

at the same time, marc franklin admitted that short-term investor confidence will improve slightly, driven by increased market trading volumes and improved financial market performance. however, the governmentprivate enterprisethe direction of policy and sluggish household consumer and business confidence remain to be seen.

"with very low positions and discounted valuations, some international investors will be encouraged to increase their investment in mainland and hong kong assets. however, other international investors may remain cautious for structural reasons." marc franklin said .

marc franklin predicts that the short-covering rally will initially be led by real estate developers and financial brokers/insurance companies, as these two industries have most directly benefited from active support measures in the real estate market and financial markets.

compared with a-shares, marc franklin believes that because hong kong stocks have a higher degree of foreign participation than a-shares, hong kong stocks are more sensitive to short covering by domestic and foreign investors and are more likely to benefit from it.

mark mobius: china’s stock market is revitalized

mark mobius, the "godfather of emerging markets", recently expressed his opinion that, stimulated by large-scale favorable policies, the chinese stock market has regained its vitality.

“in the past few trading days,csi 300 indexit soared more than 20%, recording the best weekly performance of the csi 300 index since 2008. "mark mobius said that china is taking all measures to support economic growth and boost confidence in the stock market, including injecting liquidity into the stock market on a large scale, lowering bank deposit reserve ratios, and cutting interest rates. relevant departments have also relaxed purchase restrictions, measures such as lowering existing mortgage interest rates and lowering down payment requirements for second homes are more intensive than steps taken earlier this year.

mark mobius believes that so far, this round of stimulus measures has caused a strong rebound in the market and boosted confidence. many investors waiting for the opportunity to enter the market have seized the opportunity, both out of fear of missing out and because chinese stocks are indeed cheap.

in addition, mark mobius also pointed out that it will take some time for these measures to fully penetrate into the real economy, especially domestic investors, who are the real promoters of the chinese stock market. "although stock market sentiment is optimistic after the introduction of stimulus measures, china still faces structural problems, which brings certain uncertainty to long-term growth. it will take some time for the stimulus measures introduced this time to penetrate into the broader economy. only stimulus only when measures penetrate into the real economy can we create the long-term bull market that everyone hopes to see.”

mark mobius predicts that the current rebound in china’s stock market will bring opportunities to industries such as technology and consumer goods.

"policy uncertainty remains one of the main risks. to ensure sustained growth, the chinese government must encourage private enterprise growth and innovation, especially to support large entrepreneurs and innovation." mark mobius said that if policies continue to inhibit with all this growth and innovation, the stock market momentum could run out of steam once enthusiasm for stimulus fades.

overall, mark mobius is cautiously optimistic about the chinese stock market. "there is no doubt that this is a step in the right direction, but to maintain this momentum, broader and deeper economic changes will be needed. for now, this is a promising development."

"as long-term investors, we should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and pay close attention to long-term reforms. the potential for this rebound is huge, but the real test will be whether it can be sustained in the coming months." mark mobius said .

blackrock: upgrades rating on chinese stocks to overweight from neutral

blackrock's recent weekly report showed that it raised its rating on chinese stocks from neutral to overweight. blackrock investment research said there is still room to moderately increase holdings of chinese stocks in the short term, given the near-record discount of chinese stocks to developed market stocks and the presence of catalysts that could spur investors back into the market.

song yu, chief china economist at blackrock, believes that in the context of heavy economic downward pressure and insufficient market information, this policy combination is strong and fast with a clear sense of urgency. this may be the biggest change in the chinese economy in recent years. a twist.

"this round of policies is not that one department is increasing its efforts, but more coordinated and linked policies are being introduced. driven by the policy 'gift package' of the central bank and other departments, the subsequent support and measures from other departments are also worth looking forward to. with the favorable policies if it continues, we are expected to see continued positive market feedback,” song yu said.

goldman sachs: the deposit reserve ratio is expected to be cut again by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter

goldman sachs pointed out in its latest research report that following the recent loosening of monetary policy by the people's bank of china, it is expected to further loosen policy in the remainder of this year and next year.

"we expect another 25 basis points cut in the reserve requirement ratio in the fourth quarter. if the fed cuts policy rates more aggressively than our benchmark in the coming months, this will create more room for the people's bank of china to cut policy rates. for in 2025, we now expect two 25 basis point reserve requirement ratio cuts and two 20 basis point policy rate cuts.

at the same time, goldman sachs also expects that subsequent governments will further relax home purchase restrictions (although only a few cities/regions currently have such restrictions), continue to provide policy support for urbanization, and more importantly, provide more funds for housing destocking and implementation convenience.

in addition, goldman sachs said, "we expect the government to increase financial support for consumer goods trade-in and equipment upgrade programs, and see the possibility of increasing social benefits for low-income groups."