us media: lebanese-israeli conflict may trigger "permanent war" in the middle east
2024-10-02
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reference news network reported on october 2the new york times website in the united states published an article on september 30 titled "the rising risk of new permanent war," written by fawaz gergis, professor of international relations at the london school of economics. the article is compiled as follows:
a dramatic escalation in israel's conflict with iran-backed hezbollah poses serious risks, potentially embroiling israel and the united states in a costly permanent war—an outcome that would not bring stability and peace to israel or the middle east.
hezbollah has undoubtedly suffered a series of serious blows recently. israel has killed at least four of the group's top commanders, including nasrallah. there were also carefully planned pager and walkie-talkie attacks against its rank-and-file members. but eliminating the threat posed by hezbollah to israel cannot be achieved through military means alone. this is far from ensuring the safe return of the approximately 60,000 displaced israeli citizens in the north of the country. on the contrary, this path will only strengthen the determination of tens of thousands of hezbollah supporters inside and outside lebanon.
nasrallah's death is unlikely to paralyze the group for long. nasrallah's deputy, hashem safieddine, may have replaced him as the group's de facto new leader.
israel has repeatedly underestimated hezbollah’s unity, political will and resilience. as the united states learned in afghanistan and iraq, defeating a determined insurgency or resistance movement is nearly impossible. as a non-state paramilitary organization, hezbollah can continue to wage an asymmetric war in its favor, using ongoing guerrilla warfare to prevent israel from allowing northern residents to return safely to their homes.
if israel imagines it can weaken hezbollah as effectively as it did hamas, it is mistaken. it is estimated that hezbollah has as many as 50,000 armed fighters. while the group may take time to recover, its forces far outnumber hamas and other iran-backed militias. hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets and missiles, including guided ballistic missiles.
a "complete victory" over hezbollah would require israel to launch a ground offensive into lebanon - which the israeli military is preparing to do - and permanently occupy at least parts of southern lebanon. this will not only cause serious casualties among israeli soldiers, but will also have disastrous consequences for lebanese civilians. ultimately, israel still cannot guarantee long-term security.
the only way to avoid an even greater catastrophe and a scenario that could plunge the region into a years-long war — and drag the united states more directly into the bloodshed — is for israel to immediately de-escalate its military operations in lebanon and establish a permanent presence in gaza ceasefire. this may seem like an elusive goal for israel at the moment, but it is the only way out. (compiled/yang xinpeng)
