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during the national day holiday, liquor became popular again.

on the one hand, migrant workers hold weddings during the long vacation, which increases the demand for liquor; on the other hand, having a few drinks at friends' gatherings has become a common way to enhance emotional communication.

the recent performance of the stock market has added fuel to this phenomenon. on september 30, 35 minutes after the market opened, the a-share trading volume exceeded one trillion, setting a new historical record, allowing many investors to see the long-term sluggish liquor stocks. the hope of returning to the top.

in some grassroots investment groups that had been silent for many years, people who had not spoken out for a long time began to become active. someone came out and asked: "is it too late to buy liquor stocks now?"it seems that the company has forgotten the experience of being severely beaten in the past few years: buying the bottom on the mountainside, trying to cover the position to reduce costs, but it turned out to be a "sinkhole", and over the past few years, more than half of the losses have been lost.

although many young people do not like to drink, they are keen to buy liquor stocks and funds. this ambivalence towards liquor corresponds to the internet buzzword: they are both good and fun-loving.

young people are the future of consumption. can liquor, which is constantly losing young people, find a future by relying on the turnaround of the stock market?

milk tea has become popular, and liquor has become a “spare tire”

the national day holiday has always been a peak period for weddings and should have been a peak season for liquor consumption. however, some unconventional young people have brought considerable impact to the traditional liquor market.

some couples choose to hold their weddings at mcdonald's, drive beetles to pick up food, and even let mcdonald's employees put their wedding rings in french fries. using burgers and french fries instead of the raw seafood, big fish and meat at traditional wedding banquets... netizens couldn't help but wonder: how did the newlyweds convince their parents?

although the newlyweds who are a little more "conservative" are unable to resist the red tape of the wedding, they have put some thought into the toasting process, for example,the popular milk tea is used to toast guests instead of red wine or white wine, and the classic advertising slogan of jinjiu is changed to "although milk tea is good, don't drink too much."

for young people, liquor and milk tea, one makes people intoxicated, and no one wants to wake up today; the other makes people sober, and no one wants to sleep today. in the eyes of young people, someone has to break the tradition. their wedding should reflect the characteristics of the younger generation and focus on being happy. they no longer have to worry about being drunk at the wedding banquet.

xu qing from shenzhen is such a bride who pursues a personalized wedding. after getting engaged in october last year, she began to carefully prepare for the wedding of her dreams. from the western wedding dress to the chinese wedding process, she personally participated in every detail. xu qing said frankly that she was extremely nervous because it took 4 hours to do makeup alone, so she was really pressed for time.

xu qing, who is personally involved in all details, seems quite casual about the toasting process.at last year's engagement party, she toasted the elders with a large cup of milk tea instead of white wine. "after changing into the toasting clothes, the guests have almost left, so i stopped pretending and served milk tea directly. it is refreshing and delicious, and sweet and thirst-quenching."

xu qing said that she was also prepared to do the same at the wedding on october 4 this year.

in her opinion, the relatives and friends around her are relatively casual, and everyone has no objection to toasting without white wine. the most important thing for a wedding is that the bride and groom are happy. moreover,the scene of young people toasting together and drinking milk tea has produced more movies than the scene of cheering for white wine, and it can get a wave of praise when it is posted to moments.

in addition to being unique and unique, affordability is also one of the reasons why young people choose milk tea. shen jie, a bride born in 1995, has not liked the banquet culture since she was a child, and hates the endless toasts over a meal. by chance, she saw someone toasting with milk tea on xiaohongshu, and she was inspired to leave a large table at her wedding venue with a neatly arranged table of milk tea.

not only did the children and peers get a cup of milk tea, but the elders in the family also followed suit and started drinking milk tea.compared with high-end liquor that costs five to six hundred yuan per bottle, a cup of milk tea that only costs more than ten yuan is obviously more cost-effective.

in shen jie's view, weddings are mainly casual, and those who like to drink liquor can indulge in it. milk tea provides a novel and reasonable "official drink" for non-drinkers.

it’s not easy to love liquor

for many young people, baijiu is not very popular because it is "sharp in the throat, irritating to the head, and can cause vomiting when drunk". nonetheless, in the workplace, especially at business banquets, it is almost inevitable to deal with high-end liquor such as moutai.

but,where to buy feitian moutai has become a headache for young people who don’t usually drink.

in july this year, zhou yang, a newcomer in zhejiang province, planned to buy two bottles of feitian moutai. however, the widespread fraud methods of plucked wine, punched wine, and label-changing wine made zhou yang deeply distrustful of feitian moutai online. after some consideration, zhou yang decided to go to a nearby moutai official direct store to make the purchase in person.

in order to ensure nothing goes wrong, zhou yang did his homework in advance: the real moutai directly-operated stores will clearly display the chinese and english names and logos of "kweichow moutai", and the sides of the store are decorated with facing dragon-shaped patterns; while those that only advertise "moutai sauce" although the store "fragrant, shared by all" also uses moutai's brand logo, it does not sell feitian moutai, but sells "general goods"; as for other places with the words "moutai town" and "moutai liquor", they basically have nothing to do with feitian moutai. .

but when zhou yang walked into the store, thinking that he could pay and deliver the goods on the same day, he was told by the clerk: "have you made an appointment? if you don't make an appointment, you can't pick up the goods today."

faced with this sudden situation, zhou yang, who had never had any experience in buying wine, was very surprised. based on the clerk's suggestion, zhou yang downloaded the ai moutai app and learned that he could make an appointment through tmall, jd.com, suning, netease yanxuan and other channels to purchase feitian moutai at the official guide price of 1,499 yuan.

since then, zhou yang has set multiple alarm clocks every day to remind himself to participate in limited-time sales on major platforms on time. although the whole family mobilized to try together, they failed to grab any bottle of moutai at the original price for more than a month.

in desperation, zhou yang could only go to a tobacco and alcohol store on the recommendation of a friend.although many news reported that the price of feitian moutai is falling, with the recycling price in some areas falling to 2,100 yuan, the price quoted by tobacco and alcohol stores has not dropped significantly and is still as high as 2,480 yuan/bottle.as for authenticity, it all depends on the merchant’s promise of “authenticity.” if you want to use the x-ray machine in the store to check on-site whether it is punched wine or unplugged wine, you need to pay a testing fee of 20 yuan for a bottle.

"if you don't want it, you can buy it at other people's homes. do you know how much electricity it consumes to start the x-ray machine?" the tobacco and alcohol shop seemed to disdain this small business and was preparing to drive people away. in the end, zhou yang paid an extra 40 yuan and scanned the bottle with x-ray before picking up the goods and leaving.

as natives of the internet, those born after 2000 have long been accustomed to online shopping, discounts, and the freedom to return and exchange goods. they even dare to rectify their workplaces. how have they ever experienced such cowardice? when you spend money to buy maotai but still get beaten up in various ways, you can understand why young people are becoming less and less fond of drinking liquor.

does the myth of liquor stocks continue?

this ambivalence is particularly evident among young investors who do not drink liquor but are keen to invest in liquor stocks, and it is vividly reflected in the fluctuations of stock prices.

at the beginning of 2021, the liquor industry is ushering in a super bull market. at that time, deng kai, who was working in a major internet company, was extremely excited every day. he would promote his wealth-making tips to everyone he met: new energy in his left hand, liquor in his right hand, and he would reach the pinnacle of his life. at that time, the "mao index" and "ning wang" skyrocketed, which seemed to allow him to see a future of financial freedom and early retirement.

however, market conditions took a turn for the worse.deng kai, who entered the market at a high position, was trapped as expected.cut the meat and stop the loss, or cover the position and wait for reversal? after being brainwashed into "long-termism" by star fund managers, deng kai resolutely chose the latter, constantly covering positions during the down cycle, trying to get out of the trap as soon as possible by lowering the cost of holding positions.

after persisting for a year, covering positions from the top of the mountain to halfway up the mountain, after running out of bullets, deng kai could only watch the fund's net value fall freely. even though a shares surged in the last week of september this year, and the liquor sector collectively rose sharply, deng kai's investment still lost more than 32%.

young people invest in liquor and accurately "buy the bottom" on the top of the mountain

with the arrival of a new round of stock market rise, deng kai's investment group became active again. although everyone laughs at themselves as "leeks", in response to this sudden market trend, people who have not had time to get on the bus still can't help but ask: "is there still a chance to buy liquor stocks now?"

some people complain that their previous investment has not been repaid and they have no money on hand to add to the position. opinion leaders in the group believe that the wine company has performed well and is undervalued., in an uncertain market environment, the most difficult thing is the middleman.

the "2024 china liquor market mid-term research report" released by the china liquor association's market professional committee shows that 80% of liquor companies said that the market has experienced a cold spell; dealers and retailers are under the greatest pressure, and more than 60% of them said that inventory has increased. , over 30% said they were facing cash flow pressure, over 40% said actual sales inversions had increased, and 50% said profit margins had decreased.

despite this, against the background of intensified performance differentiation, the performance of leading wine companies is still relatively outstanding. taking moutai as an example, despite its poor stock price performance, it achieved revenue of 83.451 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, and net profit reached 41.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%.

wuliangye also delivered impressive results, with revenue in the first half of the year reaching 45.506 billion yuan, an increase of 10.39%, and net profit of 17.037 billion yuan, an increase of 12.83%. in addition, the revenue of yanghe, luzhou laojiao, gujing gongjiu and other wine companies has exceeded 10 billion.

but,ordinary brands of liquor are in a more difficult situation.hou hao, manager of china merchants china securities liquor fund, who is known as the “big brother of liquor” due to his heavy stocking of liquor, believes that the recovery of overall demand in the liquor industry depends on the recovery of macroeconomic activities and policy support, and currently shows a clear trend of leading the market. companies with strong barriers and good business models have long-term investment value.

it is worth noting that kweichow moutai announced on september 20 that it plans to use its own funds to repurchase company shares worth 3 billion to 6 billion yuan. this is moutai’s first repurchase in 23 years since its listing. many industry organizations believe that "the wine will eventually sober up" and the valuation of liquor will eventually be linked to performance and need to withstand the test of performance.

at the end of september, a-shares experienced an epic surge. on september 30, the last trading day before the national day, a-share trading volume exceeded the trillion yuan mark in just 35 minutes after the market opened, and the full-day turnover reached a record-breaking 2.56 trillion yuan. the china merchants securities liquor index is expected to rise nearly 9%.

faced with this round of sudden market movements, both those who can drink and those who cannot drink are "drunk".just like baijiu, young people may not understand its charm at first, but with the growth of experience and accumulation of social experience, they can appreciate the unique charm of baijiu. similarly, investors who have experienced the ups and downs of liquor stocks cannot forget the cinnabar mole on the chest of liquor even after years of downturns.

(xu qing, shen jie, zhou yang and deng kai are pseudonyms in the article)