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wen dulijuan

whenever holidays come, consumption is a hot topic in the market. the upcoming national day golden week is also exciting. the ministry of commerce recently stated that it will further optimize consumption supply, innovate consumption scenarios, create a consumption atmosphere through the "consumption promotion year" series of activities, and better meet residents' holiday consumption needs.

driven by policies, the role of the holiday economy in driving consumption has gradually become clear. taking the mid-autumn festival that just passed as an example, according to calculations from the data center of the ministry of culture and tourism, during the mid-autumn festival holiday in 2024, there will be 107 million domestic trips across the country, an increase of 6.3% from the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis, and the total travel expenditure of domestic tourists will be 51.047 billion yuan. , an increase of 8.0% compared with the same period in 2019.

in just a few words, the consumption profile reflected has attracted much attention. two figures are particularly eye-catching, one is 107 million tourists, and the other is 51.047 billion yuan in spending. calculated based on the three-day holiday, the consumption power of more than 50 billion yuan also reflects the vitality of the market. however, in terms of per capita consumption, the per capita consumption amount during the three-day mid-autumn festival holiday is 477 yuan.

comparing the data for the first half of 2024, the number of domestic tourists was 2.725 billion, the total travel expenditure of domestic tourists was 2.73 trillion yuan, and the per capita consumption amount was 1,002 yuan.

observed from a higher perspective, the consumption motivation during the mid-autumn festival does not seem to be sufficient. although officials have not yet disclosed more consumption data for the third quarter, overall, weakening consumption seems to have become the current consensus.

in this context, improving demand and stimulating consumption are important issues in economic policy and have attracted attention from all parties. based on the new development stage, we believe that improving demand and restoring market confidence are the key to boosting consumption, and are also the fundamental strategy to accelerate the "dual cycle".

improvement demand usually refers to consumers' demand for improvements to existing products or services. for example, in the real estate market, the demand for improved housing refers to the demand of those who are dissatisfied with the existing living environment and hope to improve their quality of life by purchasing better properties.

since the beginning of this year, both the central and local governments have proposed a series of measures to improve demand. taking the real estate market as an example, in first- and second-tier cities, such as beijing, tianjin and xiamen, the improvement demand in these cities is significantly higher than the rigid demand, and the transaction volume of the improvement group even exceeds 1.5 times the rigid demand transaction volume.

in order to better meet residents' needs for improved housing, some cities have abolished standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residences. this not only reduces the tax burden on some home buyers, but also further releases the demand for improved housing.

in addition, the government and developers have also taken various measures. for example, by optimizing housing provident fund policies and increasing individual housing provident fund loan support, we can help homebuyers better realize their needs for improved housing. at the same time, some cities have launched a "trade-in" policy to stimulate residents' willingness to sell old and buy new through centralized acquisition of second-hand housing, deed tax concessions and subsidies.

on september 27, the people's bank of china issued an announcement to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points starting from september 27, 2024 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). after this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions will be approximately 6.6%.

in fact, as early as september 24, at the press conference of the state council information office, the three major financial ministries and commissions "one bank, one bureau and one meeting" released a series of favorable policies. for example: cutting reserve requirements to stimulate bank lending; lowering the minimum down payment ratio for second homes to stimulate residents' home purchases; reducing existing mortgage loans to reduce residents' interest expense pressure while stimulating consumption; refinancing affordable housing to increase the central bank's support ratio to reduce the burden borne by banks risks and promote housing refinancing.

the purpose of the policy is to hedge against market downside risks and thereby stabilize overall expectations. still taking the real estate market as an example, since this year, the phased adjustments in my country's real estate market have become a hot topic in the market.

according to data released by the national bureau of statistics, from january to august, the sales area of ​​newly built commercial buildings was 606.02 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%, of which the residential sales area fell by 20.4%. sales of newly built commercial housing were 5,972.3 billion yuan, down 23.6%, of which residential sales dropped 25.0%.

judging from the trend, against the background of major changes in the supply and demand relationship, my country's real estate market has undergone phased adjustments. the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and insufficient housing demand. therefore, the price of newly built commercial housing is still declining, and investment and sales are still year-on-year. is falling.

based on this logic, how to improve demand has become a top priority. we believe there are three measures:

first of all, increasing residents’ income is the key to enhancing consumption willingness. currently, one of the main reasons for the lack of motivation for consumption is that there is no money in the pockets, so the government can increase residents' income in a variety of ways. for example, we implement employment priority policies to help disadvantaged groups find employment and promote low-income groups to enter the middle-income ranks, thereby improving residents' spending power.

in addition, the income distribution pattern can also be adjusted to increase the proportion of labor remuneration in national income to increase residents' disposable income.

secondly, optimizing the consumption environment and conditions is also an important means to enhance consumption willingness.

the government can improve residents' quality of life by improving infrastructure construction, such as transportation, energy, and water conservancy, thereby stimulating consumption potential. at the same time, improving the consumption environment also includes strengthening market supervision, maintaining fair competition, and creating a safe and secure consumption environment.

finally, it is necessary to enrich product supply and innovate marketing strategies to effectively stimulate consumption. for example, through personalized recommendation systems and live streaming delivery models, consumers' personalized needs can be better met, the shopping experience can be improved, and purchase intentions can be increased.

in fact, consumption is a personal preference. if individuals have sufficient income and stable expectations for the future, everyone will naturally consume without external stimulation. based on this fact, regulatory authorities have successively introduced policies, which have also played an important guiding role in stabilizing expectations and increasing confidence.

the recently held meeting of the political bureau of the cpc central committee pointed out that some new situations and problems have emerged in the current economic operation. we must look at the current economic situation comprehensively, objectively and calmly, face up to difficulties, strengthen our confidence, seize key points, take proactive actions, effectively implement existing policies, and step up efforts to launch incremental policies.

we firmly believe that with the implementation of various policy measures, the confidence of the consumer market will be boosted, and the signals of china's economy stabilizing and recovering in the fourth quarter are gradually becoming clear.