news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

on september 27, japan’s liberal democratic party will hold a presidential election. this election has attracted much attention as a "presidential election without factions." since the introduction of the recommender system, the number of candidates in this presidential election has reached a record high, showing the intensity of competition within the party. this article aims to provide an overview of the progress of this presidential election to explore its future impact on the liberal democratic party.

on september 25, 2024 local time, the liberal democratic party headquarters building in tokyo, japan. thepaper image

those who were originally hesitant have stepped forward one after another, and a new trend of "no factions" has emerged in the presidential election.

japanese prime minister fumio kishida announced in advance on august 14, 2024, that he would not participate in the liberal democratic party presidential election, which had a major impact on the liberal democratic party. this decision allows candidates who were originally hesitant about kishida's possible candidacy to quickly start preparing for the presidential election. candidates such as liberal democratic party secretary-general motegi toshimitsu, chief cabinet secretary yoshimasa hayashi, and foreign minister yoko kamikawa previously had reservations about running for office, but after kishida stated that he would not run, they quickly turned to active preparations. kishida stated that he would not run for the election more than a month in advance, giving other candidates time to prepare, allowing them to successfully collect the required 20 recommenders before the announcement of the presidential election.

as the core leader of the liberal democratic party, motegi toshimitsu is responsible for party affairs and usually needs to fully support the current president. if kishida continues to run, motegi, as secretary-general, will have to follow the unspoken rule of not taking action. however, there is a precedent for breaking unspoken rules in history. in 2012, shinko ishihara broke this practice during tanigaki's tenure as president, causing him to be regarded as a "betrayer." to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past, motegi remained silent until kishida spoke out to safeguard his reputation and party unity. kishida's non-candidacy provided an opportunity for motegi and other candidates, prompting rapid activity within the ldp.

similarly, lin fangzheng and kamikawa yoko also faced similar situations. these two people are not only members of kishida's cabinet, but also former members of the kishida faction of the liberal democratic party. with kishida serving as prime minister and showing willingness to participate in the presidential election, it is almost impossible for hayashi and kamikawa to run on the same field as kishida. in particular, chief cabinet secretary lin fangzheng, who is the "second-in-command" of the regime, is responsible for supporting the prime minister. rivalry between hayashi and kishida would be unthinkable under normal circumstances. the situation in kamikawa is similar. even if she is highly praised by taro aso, the "behind-the-scenes driving force" of the kishida regime and vice president of the liberal democratic party, she will not be able to participate in the presidential election beyond the faction leaders.

in addition to the space provided by kishida's no longer running for the election for the above-mentioned candidates, this ldp presidential election also has a significant background that is different from the past - other factions in the ldp except the aso faction have disintegrated. in the past, factions were often regarded as "electoral machines for presidential elections" whose purpose was to elect the leader of the faction as prime minister. under normal circumstances, a faction will only have one candidate for president. those who are interested in vying for the position of president within the liberal democratic party need the permission of the faction leader to run, and it is difficult for young politicians with inexperienced experience to run without the consent of the faction leader. of course, there are exceptions in history. for example, in 2012, there were two candidates from the town and village faction.

now, with the disintegration of factions within the liberal democratic party, this institutional obstacle no longer exists. this change resulted in multiple candidates originally belonging to the same faction running for election - hayashi masaru and kamikawa yoko became representatives of the former kishida faction, while the original motegi faction included motegi and former chief cabinet secretary kato katsunobu. . former economic and security minister takayuki kobayashi, who once belonged to the second order faction, also decided to run. at the same time, politicians without factions who have run for office in the past, such as former liberal democratic party secretary-general shigeru ishiba, minister of economic and security sanae takaichi, and former environment minister shinjiro koizumi, have also successfully announced their candidacy against the background of the disintegration of factions. , showing this new trend of "elections without factions".

among the current nine candidates, only taro kono of the aso faction has obtained aso's permission to run. the reason why this presidential election has the new feature of "no factions" is because the kishida cabinet has been facing a long-term crisis of trust and a series of consequences caused by it.

candidate information for the 2024 liberal democratic party presidential election source: prepared by the author based on the member's homepage. the nine candidates mentioned above will compete in the liberal democratic party presidential election, which will be announced on september 12 and voted on on september 27. this was the longest presidential campaign in history, lasting 15 days.

the "individual number card" policy caused dissatisfaction, and the kishida cabinet slipped into "dangerous waters"

in japanese politics, once the cabinet support rate falls below 30%, it is usually regarded as the regime entering "dangerous waters", indicating that the government's ability to govern is facing a severe test. while entering these waters may not necessarily pose a fatal threat in the short term, if approval ratings remain low for a long period of time, the risk of government collapse will increase significantly, which often serves as a catalyst for regime change.

according to a survey by jiji news agency, the cabinet support rate of kishida fumio's government dropped to 26.6% in august 2023, the lowest since the establishment of the founding government at that time. the decline in this data also caused the cabinet disapproval rate to rise to 47.4%, showing the public's disappointment with the government. the reason for this drop in support is mainly related to the kishida regime’s insufficient response to the digital identity policy. the "my number card" policy promoted by the government team with digital minister taro kono as the core has caused widespread concern and uneasiness because it involves the security of citizens' personal information. the recent frequent incidents involving personal information leaks and misinformation have raised strong public doubts about this policy.

on june 2, 2023, the revised "individual number law" was officially passed, and it was decided to integrate the functions of the health insurance card into the "individual number insurance card". the original health insurance card will be officially issued on december 2, 2024. stop new issuance. although this decision aims to simplify the medical system, the government has to face a growing crisis of trust amid public opposition. despite many public concerns and criticisms about this policy, the kishida administration passed a cabinet resolution on december 22, 2023, setting the date for the abolition of health insurance cards (the date when new issuance will stop) as december 2, 2024.

due to widespread dissatisfaction caused by the "individual number card" policy, the support rate of the kishida regime has not been able to escape "dangerous waters" since august 2023, and has always remained below 30%. in response to public concerns about personal information security, the government established the "individual number card information comprehensive inspection headquarters" in june 2023, and announced on january 16, 2024 that the inspection work had been completed. however, a report from the digital agency showed that as many as 8,395 errors occurred during this inspection, which further deepened the public’s doubts about the individual number card, and the crisis of trust remains difficult to eliminate.

fumio kishida visual china data map

the kishida cabinet and factions collapsed in "dangerous waters"

what will further reduce the support rate of the kishida regime, which is already in "dangerous waters", is mainly the issue of income from "political banquet tickets" for factions of the liberal democratic party that broke out in november 2023. the issue involves part of the income not being disclosed in the political fund income and expenditure report, which is suspected of creating "black money" off the books, triggering public anger. this incident was called the "likult incident of the reiwa era" (editor's note: the likult incident was a corruption scandal that occurred in 1988, which directly led to the collapse of the takeshita nobori cabinet, and the subsequent impact ended in 1993 the "55-year system" in which the liberal democratic party has been in power for a long time has seriously damaged the liberal democratic party's image and support rate.

initially, kishida did not pay enough attention to the "political and money" issues, resulting in delayed response measures. under pressure from public criticism, kishida announced his resignation from the kishida faction he led on december 7 last year, demonstrating his determination to change. finally, in response to this crisis, kishida made major adjustments to the three political affairs ministers (editor's note: the ministers, deputy ministers and political affairs officers of each province in the cabinet) and important positions within the party on december 14, 2023.

these include 4 cabinet ministers and 5 deputy ministers belonging to the abe faction, as well as party officials, such as koichi hagiuda, chairman of the liberal democratic party's political consultation committee, takeshi takagi, chairman of the national assembly countermeasures committee, hiroshige seko, secretary-general of the senate, etc. this also includes influential politicians such as the regime’s second-in-command, chief cabinet secretary matsuno hiroshi, and minister of economy, trade and industry yasunari nishimura. this series of measures is intended to reshape the government's image and restore public trust.

on january 19, 2024, the special investigation department of the tokyo district prosecutor’s office decided to prosecute without personal restrictions (in-home prosecution) the then accounting chiefs of the liberal democratic party’s abe faction and nikai faction, and summary prosecution of the former accounting chief of the kishida faction ( summary prosecution). in response, kishida announced on january 18 the dissolution of the "hiroike kai" (kishida faction) he led. the dissolution of this faction has spread to other factions. except for the aso faction, the other factions have considered disbanding or adjusting their forms.

however, with the truth of the "politics and money" issue still unclear, the liberal democratic party's party discipline committee made a decision on april 4 to deal with 39 mps involved in "black money". the two leaders of the abe faction in the house of representatives and the senate - abe faction house of representatives leader shiotani and senate leader hiroshige seko were given heavy penalties for "persuading them to quit the party", while shimomura hirobumi, nishimura yasunari, and hagiuda koichi were all punished. a one-year "party membership suspension" was imposed. the decision was based on the amount of "black money". 8 members of congress who received 20 million to 10 million yen (approximately rmb 480,000 to 960,000 yuan) faced "six-month suspension of party office", while 17 members who received 10 million to 5 million yen faced "six-month suspension of party office". members of the house of representatives were "admonished". the 45 members of parliament (excluding shiotani, shimomura and nishimura) whose income was less than 5 million yen were only given "severe attention" and were not actually punished. this has left kishida facing criticism for "not taking responsibility."

although kishida mentioned his responsibility during the handling process, he was not punished in the end. as a result, the approval rate of kishida's cabinet fell to 15.5% in july 2024, a new low since the liberal democratic party returned to power in 2012, while the disapproval rate reached 58.4%. nearly 60% of the respondents said they did not support the kishida government, indicating a serious crisis in the regime.

yoshihide suga visual china data map

after the liberal democratic party experienced internal chaos, yoshihide suga launched an attack, and the "overthrow kishida" movement began

since taking office as prime minister on october 4, 2021, kishida fumio's approval rating has continued to be sluggish, falling below the "dangerous waters" of 30% as early as august 2023. under normal circumstances, a prime minister with low approval ratings will often face "step down" actions within the liberal democratic party requiring him to resign as party leader. however, under the kishida government, there was no obvious trend of "kishida stepping down" until the end of the ordinary diet (213th diet) in 2024.

the main reason for this is that the ldp is falling into a huge chaos over "politics and money" issues, and kishida's decision to dissolve the faction has further exacerbated this chaos. the kishida faction mainly relies on its own support as well as the aso faction and the motegi faction, while other factions are not completely under kishida's control, and their support for kishida varies. in particular, kishida must pay close attention to the movements of the abe faction, the largest faction. at the same time, the nikai faction led by toshihiro nikai, who was dismissed by kishida as secretary-general of the liberal democratic party, did not receive preferential treatment under the kishida regime.

normally, the "step down" movement is based on a certain faction, but kishida pushed for the dissolution of the faction in january 2024, which led to many factions other than the aso faction also making decisions to disband, and the motegi faction also broke away due to they have to change the form of activities. in this context, the lack of organizational foundation required for "kishida's resignation" made it difficult for this movement to take shape.

on june 23, 2024, the ordinary congress closed, which immediately triggered the beginning of the "kishida stepping down" operation. as the liberal democratic party presidential election approaches, the time becomes increasingly urgent. the initiative was spearheaded by former prime minister yoshihide suga, whom kishida had criticized and to some extent forced to step down.

in the "literary spring" online program on june 23, and in an interview with the monthly "hanada" published on june 26, yoshihide suga once again emphasized that prime minister kishida did not take responsibility for the "black gold" incident of the liberal democratic party faction. he pointed out in the program: "prime minister kishida himself has not taken responsibility and has not touched this responsibility so far." he proposed that the presidential election in september 2024 is the best opportunity for the liberal democratic party to explain its "reform concept" to the public. in an interview on june 26, suga further stated: "prime minister (kishida) should impose penalties on himself and take responsibility." this is actually a clear request for kishida to no longer run for office, showing his position that he hopes kishida will abdicate. .

by august 2024, although criticism from the opposition parties decreased after the closure of congress, the kishida cabinet's support rate increased slightly to 19.4%, but it was still not out of the "dangerous waters." at the same time, the disapproval rate is as high as 53.6%, and more than half of the people still express their disapproval. kishida’s prospects for re-election in the upcoming presidential election in september are worrying, and he may even face the embarrassment of the failure of the current prime minister since takeo fukuda in 1978. situation.

to avoid this situation, the only way out was considered to be to choose a "honorable retreat", that is, not to participate in the presidential election. in the end, kishida suddenly announced on august 14 that he would not run for the election, which was regarded as his "biggest surprise" so far. this decision quickly triggered an active campaign within the liberal democratic party to compete for the new prime minister candidate.

on september 25, 2024 local time, in tokyo, japan, posters for candidates for the presidential election of the liberal democratic party of japan. thepaper image

outlook: "favorite" candidate shinjiro koizumi and the direction of the presidential election

in the upcoming liberal democratic party presidential election, the most eye-catching candidate is undoubtedly shinjiro koizumi. as the son of former prime minister junichiro koizumi, shinjiro koizumi has a very high reputation. on september 6, he proposed the "three pillars" reform agenda at the presidential election press conference, namely "political reform", "no dead ends regulatory reform" and "expanding work style options". implement these bold proposals within the year.

shinjiro koizumi frequently mentioned "reform" at the press conference, saying it 56 times in total, and said that he wanted to "end the old liberal democratic party." this statement is reminiscent of his father junichiro koizumi's slogan of "breaking the liberal democratic party." . the "regulatory reform without blind spots" he proposed is exactly the same as the "structural reform without restricted areas" proposed by junichiro koizumi.

shinjiro koizumi’s surging images

shinjiro koizumi is 43 years old, which fits the theme of "refreshment" of this presidential election. according to the list of recommenders, there are 16 recommenders in the house of representatives (including 1 old abe faction, 1 aso faction, 2 old kishida faction, 2 old second-tier faction and 10 non-faction members), and there are 16 recommenders in the senate. there are four non-sectarian mps, which shows his active attitude in breaking away from factionalism. however, eight of these non-partisan supporters actually belong to the group of former prime minister yoshihide suga, making the impression that "koizumi is suga's candidate" even more obvious.

looking forward to the upcoming election, koizumi is expected to play a key role in it due to his "famousness" and "youth", and the outside world is generally optimistic about his possibility of winning. in addition, he mentioned at the press conference that he would dissolve the house of representatives early and hold an election, which showed that he was not just fighting for this presidential election, but also preparing for the ensuing house of representatives election.

in the context of the "presidential election without cliques", shinjiro koizumi was able to run and became the embodiment of the "refreshing" feeling of this election. it is exciting to see whether he can end the old liberal democratic party and reshape the image of the liberal democratic party in the future.

(hiroshi shiratori, professor at the graduate school of hosei university. the chinese version of this article was translated by wang pengfei, a lecturer at the institute of regional and national studies and institute of european civilization at tianjin normal university)