news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

it is like a blessing after a long drought!

today, the shanghai composite index rose by 100 points, the a50 and chinext index both surged by more than 5% at one point, the hong kong stock market exploded collectively, and the offshore rmb against the us dollar surged by more than 260 points at one point. chinese assets have ushered in a "big scene" that is extremely rare in recent times. so, with this kind of increase, is there still a chance to get on board?

chen guo of citic securities believes that the bottom has been established. today, the central bank and the china securities regulatory commission have launched a major policy, sounding the clarion call for the a-share counterattack. in this regard, the policy is judged to be "monetary first, then fiscal", and the market "rebounds first and then reverses".

analysts believe that the creation of structural monetary policy tools to support the capital market and allow non-bank institutions to obtain liquidity from the central bank includes the facility for securities, funds and insurance companies to swap with highly liquid assets such as government bonds and central bank bills from the central bank using their own bonds, stock etfs and csi 300 constituent stocks as collateral. this can significantly improve market liquidity, and this is also the first time in many years that the leverage level of the capital market has been raised again, and market sentiment will be different from the previous rescue.

rare "big scene"

it has been a long time since we have seen the shanghai composite index rise like this. at the opening of the market this afternoon, the shanghai composite index rose straight up, once rising by more than 100 points. at the same time, the a50 and chinext index both rose by more than 5%. what is more noteworthy is that the number of stocks that rose on the market today once exceeded 5,000, and the trading volume was significantly enlarged. this means that a large amount of incremental funds entered the market to buy at the bottom. and as the bullish sentiment continues to strengthen, the funds entering the market are buying at high prices, which in turn pushes the index to rise further.

the hong kong stock market also saw a collective explosion. in the afternoon, the hang seng technology index rose by 5% at one point, and the hang seng index rose by nearly 4% and approached the 19,000 point mark. the hang seng industry index rose across the board, with consumer, big financial and technology stocks leading the gains, and china merchants bank soared by 11%.

on the other hand, the exchange rate market also saw a sharp rise, with the offshore rmb rising by more than 260 points against the us dollar. moreover, this happened against the backdrop of a rising us dollar index. this means that both domestic and foreign capital have recognized this positive news.

analysts believe that under the current situation, the market will obviously not end so quickly, and there is still value in participating if there are subsequent adjustments. moreover, from the perspective of the structure of individual stocks, there are two obvious changes in the market recently, that is, the number of stocks that are deployed by funds is increasing significantly, and the number of stocks with a bullish pattern is also increasing significantly. on the other hand, under the background of optimized m&a policies, the space for external growth of many stocks has also been opened, which will attract more funds for deployment. from this perspective, there is still value in participating in the future.

how big is the potential?

so, under this background, is it still possible to get on the bus?

chen guo, a strategic analyst at citic securities, who previously said that the "bottom is coming", believes that the bottom has been established and a correction is an opportunity. he believes that the actual impact of the policy combination of the central bank and the china securities regulatory commission is mainly three:

first, risk appetite: the policy signal is clear, and the market risk appetite has been improved first. reducing the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rate to release liquidity is expected to form a combination of punches with future fiscal efforts to support the economy in the fourth quarter. reducing the interest rate on existing mortgage loans to respond to market concerns is equivalent to subsidizing residents with commercial banks' money. the change in policy thinking can boost investor confidence. the creation of new policy tools to support the development of the stock market has sent a clear signal that the policy level supports the stock market, further enhancing market risk appetite.

second, liquidity: a-shares are expected to usher in a new batch of incremental funds, and the specific effect remains to be seen. the china securities regulatory commission will issue opinions on promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market. judging from pan gongsheng's statement this time, a-shares are expected to usher in three major incremental funds with the support of the central bank: the central bank has created a monetary policy structural policy to support the capital market for the first time, including securities, funds, and insurance companies swap facilities, with an initial operation scale of 500 billion yuan, which can be expanded in the future depending on the situation; creating a stock repurchase and increase holdings re-loan, with an interest rate of 2.25%, and an initial scale of 300 billion yuan. if this work is done well, it can be added later; the stabilization fund is under study. judging from the initial scale of the first two tools, it is expected to bring in 800 billion yuan of incremental funds, but the specific implementation effect remains to be seen (the quota may not be used up). given the current funding situation of a-shares, if it can exceed 500 billion yuan, it will be a major positive and promote a sharp rebound in a-shares.

third, fundamentals: it is expected to boost residents' consumption and ease the pressure on the real estate chain. the stimulating effect of interest rate cuts remains to be seen, but the interest rate of existing mortgage loans will reduce household interest expenses by about 150 billion yuan per year on average, which can be converted into consumption power in large quantities, injecting a shot in the arm for the weak retail sales. extending the deadlines of two real estate financial policy documents and measures such as the central bank's support for the acquisition of real estate companies' existing land will also improve the fundamentals of the real estate chain and boost market confidence.

from the perspective of the entity, citic securities believes that by the end of 2024, the interest rate of newly issued mortgage loans in my country will be reduced to about 3%. assuming that residents who need to bear a mortgage loan of 1 million yuan will see a 70 basis point reduction in the applicable interest rate from 3.7% to 3% due to the policy since 2024, it is estimated that the monthly payment burden of the relevant residents is expected to drop by 6% (calculated based on 20 years of equal principal and interest). combined with the recent decline in housing prices, this is expected to enhance the possibility of releasing demand for self-occupancy. in addition, extending the validity period of the 16 financial policies and property management loan policies, and increasing the proportion of the people's bank of china's contribution to affordable housing refinancing will help win the battle to ensure the delivery of housing and help stabilize the real estate financial order. in short, the new policy will help stimulate the release of residents' demand for self-occupancy and help stabilize the operation of the real estate market, but there is still uncertainty as to whether housing prices can stop falling.