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citic securities: a-share bottoming is expected to accelerate, and hong kong stocks are expected to recover at the monthly level

the us dollar has entered a rate cut cycle after the "risk management" rate cut. the first rate cut of 50 basis points slightly exceeded expectations, which improved the expectations of the rmb exchange rate and increased the flexibility of domestic monetary policy. it is expected that the incremental policy will be increased, and the current bottoming process of a-shares with improved pricing efficiency is expected to accelerate, while the hong kong stocks, whose prices have fully reflected the pessimistic expectations, are expected to continue their rebound and become a monthly level repair market.

first, the 50 basis point cut to start the interest rate cut cycle is the result of the fed taking into account both expectation management and risk response. under the "discretionary decision" centered on the unemployment rate, the fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice this year.

secondly, the us dollar interest rate cut has significantly improved the rmb exchange rate expectations and increased the flexibility of domestic monetary policy. domestic policy expectations are more volatile, and the effects of existing policies and the increase in incremental policies still need to be observed.

finally, the dollar's entry into a rate cut cycle is beneficial to the valuation of global risk assets. the current price-performance ratio of hong kong stocks, which have fully reflected pessimistic expectations, is still significant, and its recent rebound is expected to continue to become a monthly level repair market; the rmb exchange rate expectations have improved significantly, and it is expected that the incremental policy will be increased; the bottoming process of a-shares with improved pricing efficiency is also expected to accelerate, but we still need to wait patiently for the market turning point signal, and currently the two main lines of dividends and going overseas are still the bottom positions.

citic securities: a-shares are about to bottom out, and it is not appropriate to be bearish at the moment

the fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points in september, slightly exceeding market expectations. the risk of a hard landing of the us economy has decreased, and china's policy space has further improved. the hong kong stock market has benefited more directly from the fed's interest rate cut, and coupled with attractive valuations, it has been relatively strong recently. the a-share market has basically reached the sentiment bottom and valuation bottom conditions. if the policy bottom is further confirmed, the market will form a resonance counterattack signal.

it is not appropriate to be bearish at present, and we should be prepared at all times. in addition, we need to pay attention to the historical rules of a-shares. the market style in the fourth quarter has more obvious differences than that in the first three quarters. in the future, we will focus on potential high-elastic varieties. industry focus: internet, military industry, home appliances, automobiles, energy storage, etc.

huatai securities: the bottom pattern is beginning to emerge, but patience may be needed to get out of the bottom

a-shares rebounded slightly last week. judging from the leading stocks and typical fund dynamics, it may be mainly driven by the fed's 50 basis point interest rate cut, which has boosted expectations of domestic policy easing. investors are concerned about whether the time and space of this round of adjustments are in place. in terms of space, the bottom of a-shares has begun to emerge. the balance of margin trading has shown signs of stabilization, the dividend cost-effectiveness has improved, and the previous strong stocks stopped falling last week, and the counter-trend funds have seen a turning point - the net increase in industrial capital holdings has turned positive recently.

in terms of time, the fed's rate cut only provides favorable conditions, and a sustained rebound may still require patience. internally, the pace/strength/effect of fiscal and monetary policies to provide/stimulate effective demand remains to be seen; externally, the us dollar and oil prices are near the support level, and whether they can further reduce pressure faces uncertain factors such as the general election. pay attention to the following configuration clues corresponding to the varieties - ah premium convergence, non-financial a50, active inventory replenishment and sustainable, and benefit from interest rate cuts.

haitong securities: the a-share index center is expected to be raised

recently, a-shares have continued the consolidation trend since late may. the shanghai composite index, csi 300, and chinext index are close to the lows of early february this year. many investors are concerned about whether a-shares are close to the stage bottom. in this regard, from the perspective of indexes and industries, the broad-based index is close to the 2/5 low point, and the valuation and risk premium are at the historical bottom; nearly half of the industry valuations have hit a new low since the beginning of the year, giving up 2/5 of the gains since then. in addition, the historical market bottoming order is high dividend stocks > broad-based index > fund heavy holdings. the current high dividend sector has adjusted significantly, and it will be observed whether it can stabilize in the future.

the overseas liquidity environment has improved, and domestic policies may be imminent. the resonance of positive internal and external factors is expected to push the center of the stock market up, and structurally, emphasis will be placed on high-end manufacturing with superior performance.

china merchants securities: the market performance before and after national day usually shows a certain calendar effect

specifically, the market was relatively quiet before the national day, and some funds flowed out under the demand for risk aversion, resulting in poor market performance. however, after the national day, the market risk appetite improved, and the major indexes often rebounded. judging from the performance of a-shares in the week after the national day in the past ten years, the probability of the shanghai composite index, csi 300, and csi 1000 index rising was more than 50%. according to data statistics since 2007, the probability of wind all a rising in the five trading days after the national day is 82%. judging from the performance of the industry after the national day in the past ten years, the probability of the first-level industry rising in the five trading days after the national day is generally above 50%, among which the industries with the highest probability of rising are concentrated in the automobile, nonferrous metals, textiles and apparel, light industry manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and biology, among which the probability of rising in the two weeks after the national day and the month after the national day is still relatively high for automobiles and pharmaceuticals and biology.

shenwan hongyuan: optimism about hong kong stocks has become a market consensus

hong kong stocks benefit more from the fed's interest rate cuts, and the cost-effectiveness and capital supply and demand advantages of hong kong stocks are concentrated in the short term. the judgment that the callback configuration of high dividends is the preferred relative return is being verified. the effectiveness of the expected policy of stabilizing the capital market requires total volume + style balance. it is correct in the long run for insurance funds to increase their allocation of high dividends at a position with appropriate cost-effectiveness. based on the prosperity clues of the second quarter report, we continue to recommend new energy power batteries, power grid equipment, wind power, innovative drugs, and insurance. in 2024, science and technology innovation is a highly elastic direction in the rebound.

boc securities: a-shares are expected to converge with hong kong stocks after the window period

with the fed's expected rate cuts being implemented beyond expectations, the impact of monetary easing on a-shares may be weakened. the current domestic economic bottlenecks mainly come from the transmission of money to credit, and whether the subsequent demand can stabilize depends more on the promotion of fiscal policy. considering the time required for the stable growth policy to take effect, the window period for policy adjustment may be between september and october; combined with the statements of the national development and reform commission and other relevant departments this week, we still need to pay further attention to the implementation of the domestic stable growth policy. we are still in the window period for hong kong stocks to dominate. in the short term, we still believe that we need to be more optimistic tactically and wait for the policy to be implemented rather than expected strategically. the time window for hong kong stocks to continue to dominate over a-shares is still there, and a-shares are expected to converge to hong kong stocks after the window period.

minsheng securities: after the rebound, return to the main line of physical

the market rebound came as expected. compared with the reversal at the entangled trading level or the historical experience of rmb appreciation, the tailwind of physical assets is the opportunity that should be seized at the moment. after experiencing "headwinds" and "shrinking circles", the resilience of domestic physical consumption has been reconfirmed, and the fed's interest rate cut will further promote the tailwind of physical consumption. it is expected that the "lost ground" in the field of resources and dividends will be gradually "recovered".

soochow securities: a-shares should switch to odds thinking

the current market has significantly underestimated the external factor of the global liquidity inflection point, which has an expectation gap and trading space. the inflection point of overseas liquidity has already appeared. as the fed gradually advances the process of interest rate cuts, domestic fundamentals are expected to gradually improve based on the recovery of external demand. at this stage, a-shares should switch to odds thinking and screen opportunities from four perspectives: (1) areas where stock prices are oversold but fundamentals/fundamentals expectations have marginally improved; (2) assets sensitive to us dollar interest rates; (3) high prosperity directions; (4) sectors where industrial trends/industrial policy expectations are strengthened.

caitong securities: seize the friendly window period of interest rate cuts

on september 18, the federal reserve cut interest rates by 50bp, which was more than expected, pushing the global market from the macro uncertainty window to the macro friendly window: the downward path of the global risk-free interest rate is clear, and the global economy is expected to recover faster driven by unconventional interest rate cuts. back to the domestic market, the domestic demand stabilization growth policy continues, the monetary policy space is opened up, the real estate is further relaxed, and the market sentiment is expected to recover from the low point.

the current main allocation is the interest rate cut trading strategy, that is, assets that benefit from the downward trend of risk-free interest rates, including gold, emerging markets (especially growth), and pro-economic cycle assets. in addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the "us stocks-a shares mapping" strategy. in the first half of this year, some us stocks can guide the performance of a shares, involving the us real estate chain, engineering machinery chain, oil service chain, shipping chain, ai computing power chain, consumer electronics chain, as well as oil, copper, oil transportation, innovative drugs, semiconductors, storage chips, etc., and the overseas leading stocks of each chain can be used as investment signals for attention.