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dividend assets represented by the big five banks, the "three oil companies" and public utilities continued to fall, sparking a discussion on whether the follow-up decline of high-priced stocks means that the bottom of the broader market is near.

on september 11, the banking index closed down 2.31%, reversing all gains since mid-april; the total market value of the "big three oil companies" evaporated by nearly 80 billion in one day, and all closed with long lower shadows. china petroleum has fallen 13.21% in september; china yangtze power fell more than 4% with large volume.

in the first eight months of this year, the high-dividend sector was the only sector that stood out, with many stocks hitting record highs. by the end of august, profit-taking began to withdraw from high-dividend assets, with many leading stocks retreating by more than 10%. at the same time, stocks in many sectors of the chinext, which had been falling for a long time, began to become active.

high dividend consensus expectations collapse

since 2024, the high dividend strategy has continued to work in a-shares, and dividends have become the most outstanding sector in the entire market. since the end of august, the high dividend sector has entered a correction phase. the dividend index (000015) broke the "golden body" on september 9, and the annualized yield turned from profit to loss, currently at 4.5%. so far, more than 30 major indexes of wind a-shares have fallen this year.

affected by the sharp drop in international oil prices, the "three oil barrels" fell sharply on september 11. china national offshore oil corporation fell nearly 6% during the day, but stabilized and narrowed its decline in the late trading, closing down 2.01%; petrochina and sinopec fell 1.9% and 3.07% respectively. since the beginning of this month, china national offshore oil corporation and petrochina have fallen by more than 13%, and sinopec has fallen by more than 7%. the total market value of the three stocks has evaporated by about 470 billion yuan within the month.

the correction of the five major banks came earlier and was larger. from august 26 to september 11, the total market value of the five major banks evaporated by 995.4 billion yuan. among them, bank of communications (601328.sh) led the decline, with a drop of 18%, while industrial and commercial bank of china and china construction bank fell by 14.41% and 13.6% respectively.

in addition to banks, utilities are the ultimate winners of this round of high dividend market, with the main targets being yangtze power (600900.sh), china shenhua (601088.sh), china national nuclear (601985.sh), etc. china national nuclear has fallen 11.52% this month, and yangtze power, the most resilient, also closed down 4.63% on september 11. in addition, the constituent stocks of the shanghai stock exchange central enterprise index are composed of a group of central enterprises with high dividends and large market capitalization. the index has fallen 8.95% in the past 11 trading days, giving up all the gains since the spring festival this year.

there are signs that the attractiveness of dividend assets to funds is decreasing. sdic securities believes that in the second half of 2024, if the csi dividend total return index is to achieve better and more sustained excess returns and the central expectation of the 10-year bond interest rate in china is no longer expected to move downward, increasing the overall dividend ratio will become the key to further upward movement of the high dividend market.

in the view of zhao xi, fund manager of tuopai fund, the logic of bank's rise is not solid in itself. the rise led by the four major banks is mainly due to the need of funds to avoid risks. "the stock prices of the four major banks continue to hit record highs, but the net interest margin income of banks is narrowing, and the non-performing rate is still rising. therefore, the logic of pulling bank stocks to new highs based solely on the demand for risk preference and risk aversion is not solid. at the same time, if the reserve requirement ratio continues to be lowered, the net interest margin income of banks will be further compressed, and the performance expectations are not optimistic." zhao xi said: "the price of crude oil has shown a significant correction, which is a major logic for the correction of the three oil companies. but the decline in crude oil will not be too large. if the federal reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, then the price of crude oil will continue to fall. if the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points, it means that the european and american economies are still okay, and crude oil and the three oil companies may stop falling relatively quickly next."

can the market bottom out and rebound after the high-priced stocks fall?

after the gradual disintegration of the dividend assets of the capital group, the stock index of the market began to diverge. on september 11, the shanghai composite index continued to hit a new low, closing at 2721.8 points, and the chinext index rose by more than 1%. the high dividend stocks such as banks and coal collapsed and the growth new energy sector led the rise, forming a market pattern of ice and fire. the oversold growth sector performed actively, and the concept sectors such as lithium mines, photovoltaic inverters, energy storage, and power batteries ranked first in the increase.

in the growth track, the power battery sector is currently the most concerned. today, the news that catl (300750.sz) adjusted the production arrangement of lithium carbonate in yichun ignited market sentiment, and lithium mining stocks with long-term valuation corrections collectively rose sharply. tianqi lithium (002466.sz), ganfeng lithium (002460.szz), yongshan lithium (603399.sh), and weiling shares (002667.sz) rose to the daily limit.

since the beginning of this year, the production capacity of the lithium battery industry has been gradually cleared. due to the oversupply of upstream lithium carbonate and most lithium battery materials, the price of batteries has fallen. in the first half of the year, the price of power batteries continued to decline, and the semi-annual reports of lithium mining stocks generally showed losses. the reduction or suspension of production of high-cost lithium mining companies is expected to promote the start of supply-side clearance. with the stabilization and rebound of the price of raw material lithium carbonate and the narrowing of the price decline of other material links, the decline of battery prices has slowed down, and the industry's profits are expected to bottom out and stabilize in the second half of the year.

regarding the market outlook, the head of a private equity fund in east china told china business news: "we tend to believe that the current decline in the market is the last one, and the lowest target of the decline may be around 2,600. how big the rebound is depends on how deep the decline is, and the time and space conditions for a short-term rebound are about to take shape. we are cautiously optimistic about the medium-term market, mainly because the overall net profit of listed companies in the interim reports has declined, and the bottoming out of earnings is unclear; secondly, the manufacturing pmi is still in a downward channel, and there is no turning point signal in the downward trend of domestic demand in the short term. with the fed's interest rate cut approaching, the market may gamble on the expectation of policy increases in the second half of the year. on the other hand, from the perspective of valuation cost-effectiveness, the growth style is expected to gain capital preference in the fourth quarter, with a focus on sub-sectors with support from fundamental growth."