news

li yingying assistant researcher, european and asian studies institute, china institute of international studies

on august 6, ukraine sent elite troops to risk crossing the border to raid russia's kursk oblast. after more than 20 days of fighting, ukrainian army commander-in-chief sersky said that ukraine had controlled about 1,300 square kilometers of russian land. russia reacted from the initial shock and stepped up its counterattack, and ukraine's offensive momentum slowed down. in this situation, zelensky called on the west to relax restrictions on the use of long-range offensive weapons. russian foreign minister lavrov used nuclear deterrence to warn the west not to play with fire, otherwise it would cause the war to expand and possibly trigger world war iii.

whether the russian-ukrainian war will further expand depends not only on the direction of the war in kursk oblast and eastern ukraine, but also on whether the west will meet ukraine's demands and further erode russia's strategic "red line."

ukraine hopes to gain more bargaining chips

ukraine's surprise attack on russia's mainland is a "big gamble". since the failure of the counterattack last year, the ukrainian army has been in a passive defensive state on the front line in eastern ukraine. the weapons and ammunition provided by the west are insufficient, and domestic morale is low. the number of ukrainian people willing to negotiate with russia and even agree to make territorial concessions continues to increase. the upcoming us election brings new uncertainties to the aid to ukraine and the direction of the war. compared with russia, ukraine's human and material resources are not superior in a long-term war of attrition. against this background, ukraine, with the support of nato intelligence, has targeted the weakly defended russian border areas in order to disperse the russian army's forces in eastern ukraine and ease the pressure on the front line. at the same time, it seeks to achieve long-term occupation of part of the territory in the russian border area as a bargaining chip for later negotiations.

on the one hand, russia has accelerated the adjustment of its military deployment, announced the establishment of a border region military security coordination committee, formed three "army groups" in kursk, belgorod and bryansk, and brought the troops initially mobilized from less critical fronts such as kharkov, kherson and zaporizhia under unified command to improve combat efficiency. at the same time, russia stepped up trench digging and deployed fortifications 40 kilometers from the border, and used its air superiority to launch air strikes on usumey oblast and other places to interrupt ukraine's logistics supply. as russia accelerated its counterattack, ukraine's rapid advance slowed down significantly.

at present, ukraine has neither forced the russian army to move from the donbass front nor seized key strategic assets such as the kursk nuclear power plant. if it fails to hold its ground and is repelled by the russian army, ukraine will fall into a more unfavorable situation than before the raid. to this end, zelensky urged the west to "lift" restrictions on long-range weapons to strike russia in depth. zelensky said that ukraine's raid is part of ukraine's solution to the war, which also includes ukraine's strategic position in the global security architecture and strong coercion against russia. ukraine's goal is to gain more battlefield advantages before the us election as a bargaining chip for "fair and equitable negotiations" with russia later.

all parties are still aware of the "red line" and the risks are temporarily controllable

since the outbreak of the ukrainian crisis, the west has been eroding russia's strategic "red line" by boiling a frog in warm water. the types of weapons provided by the west to ukraine have continued to escalate, and the west even supports ukraine's attack on the russian mainland. russia has repeatedly issued nuclear deterrence warnings. russia and ukraine have been testing each other, forming a "chicken game" that was common during the cold war.

although the west has repeatedly tested and even crossed russia's "red line", it is still very cautious about lifting restrictions on the use of long-range weapons against ukraine. the united states has made it clear that ukraine is not allowed to use the army tactical ballistic system (atacms) to attack targets in russia. although the united kingdom privately agreed to ukraine's use of the "storm shadow" cruise missile, it needs to seek permission from the united states. the reason why the west does not agree to ukraine's request is mainly because it is afraid of being deeply involved in the war. according to statistics from the institute of war studies, there are 245 military and paramilitary targets and 16 air bases in russia within the range of the army tactical ballistic system (atacms). since ukraine accepted the atacms missiles assisted by the united states, russia has transferred 90% of its military aircraft to military bases that are not covered by the missile's range. at present, the other 245 military assets have not been redeployed. if the west relaxes restrictions on the use of long-range weapons against ukraine, russia will concentrate limited air defense and electronic warfare assets to protect the rear, and will be forced to carry out large-scale redeployment of these military and paramilitary facilities. this round of ukraine's raid on kursk oblast has already embarrassed russia. if ukraine is allowed to use long-range weapons to attack russia, it will inevitably face a larger-scale retaliation from russia, which is also what western countries fear.

judging from the overall situation on the russian-ukrainian battlefield, russia still holds the leading position on the battlefield. the russian army has steadily advanced on the donbass front and is soon approaching the red army city, an important town in eastern ukraine. russia's counterattack in kursk is also accelerating, and russia expects that the ukrainian army will be repelled in the next few months. it should be said that russia still has a great chance of winning using conventional weapons, and it is not yet necessary to resort to nuclear strikes. the use of nuclear weapons will not only cause a serious humanitarian disaster, but will also seriously affect russia's international image. if the war continues to escalate and nato is dragged into a war with russia, the possibility of russia using nuclear weapons will greatly increase.

editor: gao peining, jiang xinyu, zhang yanling