experts comment on ibm's closure of its r&d department in china: too many similar competitors and lack of absolute technological barrier advantages
2024-09-02
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cover news reporter wu yujia
recently, it was reported online that ibm china would shut down the access rights of employees in r&d and testing positions in china, sparking speculation. china business news later reported that ibm would completely shut down its r&d department in china, involving more than 1,000 employees.
pan helin, a well-known economist and member of the information and communication economics expert committee of the ministry of industry and information technology, pointed out that there are two main topics of discussion among people who pay attention to this matter: first, the n+3 and 1-year buffer period seem generous. even if foreign capital withdraws, the cleanup work is still relatively rigorous, which is worth learning for domestic companies. second, why did ibm withdraw from the r&d institution? according to ibm, ibm will engage in hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence in the future. this r&d institution is actually a technical consulting institution, which is meaningless.
pan helin said that in fact, ibm has one and only one problem in china, which is that there are too many similar competitors.
ibm is doing well in other parts of the world, but in china, there are too many companies engaged in digital transformation. not only are there more companies, but these companies also have advantages over ibm:
first of all, if there is a domestic digital transformation plan, domestic products will naturally be given priority. now there are also requirements in terms of data security and compliance. ibm has no advantages over similar domestic companies.
secondly, china is too competitive. even hybrid cloud and ai, which ibm is proud of, are a red ocean in china. in the past, bat dominated the internet cloud computing army. later, state-owned clouds such as the three major telecom operators also joined the cloud computing competition. the internet army focused on technology, while the state-owned cloud army focused on security. ibm's market share was greatly squeezed.
furthermore, ibm is actually a non-deterministic company. many technologies require long-term accumulation, but ibm is like a bear trying to break a stick. when servers became popular, ibm made servers. when big data came, ibm promoted big data. when blockchain came, ibm made blockchain. now, ibm is also in the hundred models war. ibm is involved in everything, but it has not established an absolute technological barrier advantage in any field. it has no moat. this is buffett's evaluation of ibm. decades have passed, and ibm is still the same.
pan helin said that although ibm said that ai replaced manual labor and improved corporate efficiency, ibm's revenue in the second quarter of this year only grew by 2%, and only 4% at a fixed exchange rate. in technology companies, you rarely see such "unemotional" performance. therefore, it is possible that the r&d institution layoffs are not to blame on anyone, but just that the company is old and has been in the technology field for too long.
