news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

source: global times

british "new scientist" article on august 21, original title: why population decline can change the planet in 1968, paul and anne ehrlich published the book the population bomb, which foresaw the coming terrible ecological disaster. they said that the current population growth trend must be slowed down or reversed, otherwise disasters would ensue.

unprecedented spontaneous decline in species size

the world’s population has more than doubled to 8 billion, and disasters are a daily occurrence. but now we are facing a new situation, the first since life began on earth.

italy's population has dropped by about 1 million since 2014, while japan's has dropped by 5 million since 2010. it is unprecedented that a species has spontaneously reduced its size without a major disaster, and this fact contradicts traditional biological theory. this seemingly contradictory fact is a joint product of human cultural and physiological evolution. due to our unique evolutionary history, we have superior intelligence and are the only species that can consciously control the size of our family.

charles darwin was the first to realize that, except for humans, all other species use reproduction as the primary means of survival of the fittest.

indeed, any other organism that stopped reproducing because of fear of the consequences would be immediately eliminated by predators and parasites lurking in the dark.

change in mindset is one of the reasons for population decline

but the knowledge and culture we have accumulated makes us stand out. our generation was plagued by many dangerous bacteria and viruses as children, such as mumps, measles, chickenpox and diphtheria, but today's children live a more carefree life. all of this is due to our unique ability to learn, to constantly understand our place on this planet and the consequences of our actions.

the extent to which these abilities are expressed in human society varies, but some have reached heights not achieved by any other species. in recent years, attitudes toward large families in many countries have changed from undisguised admiration to embarrassing discomfort, a shift in attitudes that is also a major driver of population decline.

opened up a new development path

conventional economists worry about today’s demographic situation, claiming that a shrinking workforce and growing retirement populations will have serious negative fiscal consequences. but the neatest part of this story is that the countries that seem most vulnerable to demographic decline are also the ones that can best overcome them.

taking japan, where the situation is the most serious, as an example, population reduction will also bring the breathing space needed to deal with various social crises. by making subtle adjustments to tax policies and paying more attention to the growing elderly group, the economic crisis facing japanese society can be alleviated to a certain extent. japan and italy have both ushered in their own moments of preparation. the reason why the median per capita wealth of these two countries is at a high level in the world is also due to the slowdown in their population growth.

this indicator means that the social wealth of the two countries is not only abundant, but also distributed relatively reasonably. compared with being stuck in the development quagmire of excessive gap between the rich and the poor, these countries are more likely to achieve a virtuous cycle.

since the advent of life on earth, humans have become the first species to break through the limitations of primitive reproductive desires through evolution. in the past, this ability might have led to our extinction, but now it has opened up a new path for development. (author: christopher wells, translated by hua zexun)