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China News Service, August 21 (Zheng Yuntian) It has been half a month since the Ukrainian army invaded Russia's Kursk Oblast, and the fighting between the two sides is still very fierce.

As the Ukrainian army attacked several bridges over the Seym River and continued to capture settlements, this offensive seemed to give Ukraine hope.

On August 18, 2024, the Ukrainian military released photos showing smoke coming out of a bridge in the Kursk region of Russia. The Ukrainian side said that the bridge had been destroyed by the Ukrainian army.

However, another place may become their "nightmare".

The Ukrainian army wants to "attack the enemy and rescue them"?

Since August 6, Ukraine has mobilized several brigades of troops and weapons to raid Russia's Kursk Oblast, digging trenches, building fortifications, and appointing the director of the Military Administration. According to the Ukrainian side, it has seized nearly 100 settlements.

Ukrainian President Zelensky also publicly stated that the attack on Kursk Oblast was to establish a buffer zone.

However, some analysts believe that the most important purpose of Ukraine's surprise attack on Kursk is not to "capture cities and territories", but to attract Russia's attention and use the political pressure caused by the "occupation of the homeland" to force Russia to mobilize troops on the eastern front of Ukraine to return to support, so as to achieve the effect of "attacking the enemy and then rescuing them" and "encircling Wei to save Zhao".

However, Russia's response did not seem to be what the Ukrainian army had envisioned.

Russian Army: “No need, no rescue”

On the 18th, Russia's "Central" group occupied the "New York Town" (called Novgorodsik Town by the Russian side) in the Donetsk direction of Ukraine. This fortress that the Ukrainian army has operated since 2014 finally changed hands. The Ukrainian side admitted on social media that the Russians have occupied the "New York Town" and are advancing towards Nerepivka in the Toretsk direction.

"New York Town" is located in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, north of the city of Donetsk and south of Chasov Yar. In 2014, it was the front line of the Ukrainian government's "Anti-Terrorism Operation" (ATO) against the armed forces in eastern Ukraine. It is a core area of ​​​​the fortress area in eastern Ukraine.

At present, the Russian offensive has also approached Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, only 10 kilometers away from the outskirts of the city. The population here exceeds 50,000 and evacuation has begun. The local government said that the Russian army is advancing so fast that residents have received orders to evacuate the city and surrounding towns and villages starting from the 21st local time.

Pokrovsk is one of Ukraine's main defense strongholds and key logistical hubs in the Donetsk region. If the city falls, the Ukrainian army's defense capabilities and supply lines will be damaged, and the Russian army will be closer to its publicly declared goal of "controlling the entire Donetsk."

Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief Serski said on the 19th local time that "fierce fighting" was breaking out in the Pokrovsk region and the nearby town of Toretsk was also under heavy pressure. If Toretsk falls, it will "open the door" for the Russian army.

It can be seen that since the Ukrainian army launched the offensive against Kursk, Russia has only deployed limited forces for defense and has not withdrawn troops from eastern Ukraine on a large scale. Instead, the pressure Ukraine faces in eastern Ukraine has increased.

Various analytical voices have always believed that Russia lacked a strong response to the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, which is indeed true, but the Russian army's response was to continue to launch an offensive in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian army wanted to "attack the enemy and rescue them", while the Russian army "did not need to" and "did not rescue" and focused on attacking Donetsk.

File photo: Ukrainian President Zelensky.

According to the New York Times, a spokesman for a Ukrainian military unit deployed in Donetsk complained to the newspaper that the situation in the eastern front war zone has become worse since the Ukrainian army launched the offensive on Kursk, and the Ukrainian army has been allocated less ammunition than before.

"Major strategic mistake"?

According to an analysis by the U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War, Russia's offensive attempt to capture Pokrovsk is symbolic of Russia's overall strategy toward Ukraine, which is to use positional warfare to advance step by step and seek to win a war of attrition.

Since capturing Avdiivka in February 2024, the Russian army has continued to exert a strong offensive on the eastern front of Pokrovsk, taking advantage of the weaknesses in Ukrainian defense to advance in this direction. The Russian army suffered certain losses in exchange for advancing about two square kilometers every day in the Pokrovsk region in the past six months.

The Institute for the Study of War believes that Russia plans to use its human and material advantages to continue advancing in a long-term positional warfare state. The Ukrainian army lacks the human and material resources to maintain positional warfare defense.

In addition, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on the 19th that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out the possibility of negotiations with Kiev in view of Ukraine's sabotage actions on Russian territory. "The president made it very clear that any negotiations are impossible after the attack and even invasion of the Kursk region," Lavrov said.

File photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin.

It neither improved the situation on the front line nor affected the prospects for peace talks. Against this background, the Ukrainian army's investment in the Kursk direction seems to be more costly than gain.

According to the Quincy Institute of International Affairs, a US think tank, John Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, believes that Ukraine's attack on Kursk is a "major strategic mistake" that will accelerate its defeat. "The key determinant of success in a war of attrition is the casualty exchange ratio, not the occupation of territory."

Mearsheimer said the casualty exchange ratio in the Kursk Offensive favored Russia for two reasons. First, Russian casualties were relatively low because Ukrainian forces effectively occupied undefended territory. Second, once alerted to an attack, Moscow was able to quickly mobilize massive air power to strike at advancing Ukrainian forces.

"To make matters worse, Kiev is withdrawing its best combat troops from the front lines in eastern Ukraine, exactly when Ukraine needs them," Mearsheimer said.