Exclusive Interview | Wang Quan of Guoxuan High-tech: Barriers to going overseas may drive Chinese battery companies to accelerate technological innovation
2024-08-26
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From January to July this year, the cumulative installed capacity was 244.9GWh (Gigawatt-hours), a year-on-year increase of 32.8%; in the first half of this year, the global installed capacity of power batteries was about 364.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%.
Wang Quan, secretary of the board of directors of Guoxuan High-tech, said in an exclusive interview with a reporter from Beijing News Shell Finance that although the growth rate has slowed down, the growth rate of global power battery installations still maintains a positive growth trend; power batteries may face some challenges in future development, but there are also many opportunities. Wang Quan believes that the new energy battery industry is the most important industry to promote energy transformation. Its real innovation and change does not rely solely on the breakthrough and innovation of a certain technology, but is driven by comprehensive progress at multiple levels and dimensions.
Solid-state batteries are planned to be put into small batches for testing in 2027
Shell Finance:How is Guoxuan High-tech's layout in the field of solid-state batteries progressing? Is solid-state battery the next generation technology? When will it be commercialized on a large scale?
Wang Quan:In May 2024, Gotion High-Tech launched the first all-solid-state battery, the Jinshi Battery. Through micronized solid electrolytes, ultra-thin film-coated single crystal positive electrodes, and three-dimensional mesoporous silicon negative electrodes, a technological breakthrough in all-solid-state battery materials was achieved.
Large-scale commercial use depends not only on the company's own R&D progress, but also on the development of the industry chain and application scenarios. Solid-state batteries will continue to be one of the company's key R&D projects, and are planned to be put into small-scale vehicle experiments in 2027.
Shell Finance:As the growth rate of new energy vehicles slows down, the growth rate of power battery installation is also slowing down. How do you view the future development of power batteries?
Wang Quan:Although the growth rate has slowed down, the global power battery installation growth rate still maintains a positive growth trend. Power batteries may face some challenges in future development, but there are also many opportunities, such as technological innovation, cost reduction, the driving force of market demand growth and diversified policy support measures will promote the development of the industry.
In addition, there is potential for recycling and reuse. It is estimated that by 2030, more than 12 million tons of waste batteries will need to be recycled worldwide. The development of the power battery industry is not only driven by technological innovation and market demand, but also benefits from the promotion of policy environment and industry competition.
Shell Finance:What is Guoxuan High-tech's overseas market layout, and how can it further accelerate its overseas expansion?
Wang Quan:Guoxuan High-tech divides the global automobile market into four market segments: America, Europe and Africa, Asia Pacific, and China. The shares of these four segments are basically balanced, about 20 million vehicles each, and the total global market space is over 80 million vehicles per year. In the future, these markets will face the problem of electrification, and the most important thing in this process is to solve the problem of battery energy storage. Therefore, Guoxuan High-tech hopes to participate in global competition and formulate and always adhere to a globalization strategy with production capacity exported as the main way.
The key task of Guoxuan High-tech in the next stage is to gradually establish localized production capabilities in Europe and the United States. In the future, Guoxuan High-tech will further expand its domestic and overseas customers, accelerate localized production, strengthen talent introduction and local high-tech talent allocation, create a domestic and overseas dual circulation in terms of resources, realize a closed loop of the industrial chain, and basically realize independent supply of raw materials in each region.
Current obstacles will promote technological innovation of Chinese power battery companies
Shell Finance:The domestic power battery market is highly competitive. How can we form a virtuous cycle?
Wang Quan:Healthy and orderly market competition is an inevitable trend in the development of the industry. Enterprises should focus on technological innovation, improve product quality, and optimize cost structure to meet market demand. At the same time, it is also important for the policy side to continuously create a fair competition environment and guide the healthy development of the industry. Through a series of measures, support enterprises to take the technology-driven path and avoid extensive development. In addition, upstream and downstream enterprises should also strengthen cooperation, complement each other's strengths, and jointly promote the upgrading of the industrial chain.
The power battery market is a global market. Domestic companies should take a global view, make global business layout with a forward-looking vision, and lead the progress of the industry with technological innovation.
Shell Finance:What is the impact of the EU's "New Battery Law" on Chinese power battery companies going overseas?
Wang Quan:The promulgation of the EU's "New Battery Law" has put forward higher requirements for enterprises in terms of technology research and development, production management, supply chain management, etc. Although we may face some challenges and difficulties in the short term, in the long run, this will drive us to accelerate technological innovation, improve the recycling system, strengthen international cooperation and exchanges, layout localized production and markets, and drive the coordinated development of the entire industrial chain.
As Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said at the roundtable meeting of Chinese electric vehicle companies in Europe in April this year, the overall competitive advantage of Chinese new energy vehicle companies is formed by continuously increasing innovation investment, improving the production and supply chain system, and in a fierce market competition environment, rather than relying on so-called "subsidies" or the product of "overcapacity". Therefore, we believe that Chinese power battery companies will continue to ride the wind and waves in the process of going overseas.
Shell Finance:Currently, both the United States and the European Union have announced additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and battery components. The multiple restrictions and regulations that have followed in overseas markets have formed barriers to my country's power battery exports. How do you view the opportunities and challenges for Chinese power battery companies to go overseas?
Wang Quan:From the perspective of opportunities, the global new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly. The current overall overseas new energy penetration rate is low, and there is a lot of room for development. The overseas market demand for power batteries is strong. It is predicted that by 2030, the global power battery market demand will reach 4.8TWh, far exceeding the current supply capacity; this provides a broad market space for Chinese power battery companies, helps companies expand their production and sales scale and improve their profitability, and provides localized support for companies to build factories overseas.
In addition, with the acceleration of global energy transformation and the rapid development of renewable energy, energy storage batteries, as one of the important equipment supporting new power systems, continue to grow in market demand.
However, there are also challenges such as trade barriers and tariffs, volatile geopolitical issues, inconsistent technical standards and regulations, and secondary issues such as cost, labor, culture, and religion brought about by the localization of the supply chain.
Shell Finance:What are the key points of real innovation and change in the power battery industry? Are there any truly disruptive products in the industry?
Wang Quan:The development of any industry cannot be tied to the innovation and change of a so-called key point, nor should we pin our hopes on the emergence of a certain technology or a certain disruptive product. These are only individual bright spots in the long river of development. There must be countless bright spots that continue to iterate in order to promote the gradual innovation and change of an industry or industry. Energy transformation is a complex, multifaceted, sustainable global topic. As the most important industry to promote energy transformation, the new energy battery industry's real innovation and change does not rely solely on the breakthrough and innovation of a certain technology, but is driven by comprehensive progress at multiple levels and dimensions.
Wang Linlin, financial reporter of Beijing News Shell
Editor: Wang Jinyu
Proofread by Lucy
