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The explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline has recently attracted attention again due to the revelations of the US and German media. According to the revelations, the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline was carried out by a Ukrainian gang in retaliation for Russia's special military operation against Ukraine. In response, Ukraine immediately denied it, saying that the sabotage operation could only be carried out with a large amount of technical and financial resources, and Ukraine did not have such capabilities. So, at a time when the war between Russia and Ukraine in Kursk is fierce and the situation is escalating, why did the long-silent investigation of the Nord Stream pipeline explosion once again stir up waves? What is the intention of the Western media suddenly pointing the finger at Ukraine? Please pay attention to the "National Defense Time and Space" Yinan Military Forum.

Li Yue: The Wall Street Journal recently published a long article announcing the results of the investigation into the explosion of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline. The report pointed out that a group of six Ukrainian active-duty soldiers and businessmen rented yachts and deep-diving equipment to sabotage the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline in September 2022. It also pointed out that this secret plan was initially approved by Ukrainian President Zelensky, but was later stopped due to the intervention of the United States. However, Zaluzhny, who was the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the time, still insisted on pushing forward and successfully implemented the operation.

Professor Yinan, how credible do you think the information disclosed by the US media this time is? In February last year, the senior US investigative journalist Seymour Hersh pointed out that the US intelligence agencies planned to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline. Why are there two completely different investigation results for the same incident?

Jin Yinan: I think the "investigation results" published by the US media are full of doubts. First of all, from a tactical point of view, Ukraine has nothing to do with the Baltic Sea. The "Nord Stream" natural gas pipeline runs from Russia to Europe via the Baltic Sea, so how can Ukraine know the exact direction of this pipeline? Moreover, the Ukrainian special forces have been fighting on land. Do they have frogmen who can perform such a mission? All of this is unknown. So from a technical point of view, Ukraine may not have the ability to carry out such an attack.

Secondly, from a strategic point of view, the bombing of the Nord Stream gas pipeline has dealt a heavy blow to the energy supply of Germany and even Europe. The direct beneficiary of this result is the United States. Ukraine once said that bombing the Nord Stream gas pipeline would not help Ukraine much, and would consume a lot of manpower and material resources, which is not in Ukraine's interests. What Ukraine urgently hopes is to launch an effective counterattack against Russia on the battlefield. So from this point of view, Ukraine has insufficient motivation to blow up the Nord Stream gas pipeline.

At present, although the Wall Street Journal has made detailed disclosures on the bombing of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline, it is still vague on several major issues, which makes the truth of the Nord Stream incident still confusing.

Li Yue: In addition to the United States, Germany also blamed Ukraine for the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. According to German media reports, the German prosecutor issued a "European arrest warrant" in June, asking Poland to assist in the arrest of a Ukrainian suspected of participating in the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said in an interview recently that the German investigation and the reports of the US media gave people a sense of diversion, with the purpose of covering up the real mastermind behind the scenes. Professor Yinan, how do you analyze Germany's true attitude towards the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline?

Jin Yinan: Germany has been ambiguous and hesitant since the bombing of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, taking one step forward and two steps back, which shows that the psychological burden on the Germans is very heavy. On the one hand, Germany is a member of NATO, and on the other hand, the United States has a large number of troops stationed in Germany and controls Germany's security, which makes it difficult to break many windows. However, the bombing of the Nord Stream gas pipeline caused Germany to suffer heavy losses. If the government does not respond, it will not be able to explain to the voters, so Germany is in a dilemma.

The main issue Germany is considering now is how to prevent the truth of the Nord Stream incident from shaking the country too much and affecting the rationality and legitimacy of the German ruling authorities, and causing greater impact on US-German relations, rather than the truth of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline explosion.

Li Yue: After nearly two years, the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline has once again returned to the public eye due to the revelations of the US media. Coupled with the current fierce fighting between Russia and Ukraine in the Kursk direction, the tension continues to heat up, which has attracted widespread attention from the public. Some netizens believe that the US media suddenly released the investigation results of the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline and pointed the finger at Ukraine, which seems to be intended to continue to "add fuel to the fire" between Russia and Ukraine. Professor Yinan, what do you think about this?

Jin Yinan: The bombing of the "Nord Stream" natural gas pipeline can be characterized as a major international terrorist attack, but the United States and Western countries have currently handled it in a low-key manner.

Of course, the Americans also know that they must give some explanation for this matter. If it is left unresolved, it will set a very dangerous precedent, which is to legalize major international terrorist attacks. This will have a major impact on the so-called "rules-based international order" of the United States and will be a major damage to the current international rules. Therefore, the United States must give an explanation.

We can assume that if the Nord Stream gas pipeline, which is from Germany to the UK and the US, was bombed, Europe and the US would suspect that it was Russia, which could lead to the danger of a world war. This is because it provides a sufficient reason for a sovereign state to declare war. However, after the bombing of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, both Germany and the US tried to keep the situation low-key. Although Russia knows the seriousness of the situation, it cannot launch new military operations in view of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

At present, the article published by the Wall Street Journal can be regarded as an explanation given by the US side, pointing out that Ukraine is the "culprit" of the "Nord Stream" incident. This kind of evasion seems to convey another message to the outside world, that is, the United States may consider changing its "chips" and no longer consider Ukraine's situation and interests. The current US election is imminent. If Trump comes to power, he will inevitably reduce military aid to Ukraine. At the same time, Zelensky has repeatedly stated that he is unwilling to negotiate based on the current status of the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, so it is not ruled out that the US side is considering related issues.

Fundamentally, this is not just a matter of the United States shirking responsibility. In fact, it is the result of a series of international and domestic political forces playing against each other since the Russia-Ukraine conflict. What will be the consequences of this game? We can wait and see.

(Reporter Li Yue from China National Radio Military Channel)