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21st Century Business Herald reporter Bian Wanli reports from ShanghaiOn August 17, the "2024 Asset Management Annual Conference" hosted by "21st Century Business Herald" and co-hosted by Shanghai Pudong Development Bank was grandly held in Shanghai. In the roundtable dialogue of the theme forum on high-quality development of the capital market, Xu Zhe, general manager of the fixed income department of Everbright Wealth Management, said that the increase in the scale of fixed income + funds is a good thing. On the positive side, fixed income + funds have achieved positive returns for customers and achieved relatively high returns; on the negative side, it can reverse the public's negative impression that the asset management industry is always pro-cyclical.

He further pointed out, "There is a problem in the asset management industry that is easily criticized, that is, products are often launched in a pro-cyclical manner, especially equity funds, which have performed significantly. Equity-containing funds also have this trend. The hot-selling funds issued before this bear market were overheated, and funds continued to flow in, bringing negative returns to customers. Now is a relatively bullish time for bonds, but the real super returns of fixed income + products still depend on the performance of the equity assets. At this time, fixed income funds can get equity positions at a low point, which is also a good thing for investors' future returns."

Xu Zhe believes that the management model of the wealth management industry and other types of asset management industries in the field of fixed income + is different. Taking Everbright Wealth Management as an example, fixed income + products are roughly divided into two series: one is the traditional actively managed fixed income +, and the equity part is mainly allocated to industry broad-based and index ETFs; the other is fixed income + derivatives, including gold-linked targets, US dollar bond indices and other types.

"In the field of fixed income +, we must first build investment research capabilities and cultivate the capabilities of investment managers. Different types of products often require different capabilities. Cultivating investment managers' capabilities includes the ability to allocate major asset classes and choose positions, which is the most core; it also includes the ability to identify the style of the next stage." Xu Zhe said that from the perspective of the entire company, capacity building is not only centered around investment managers, but also requires a research support team behind the scenes, including industry tracking, style tracking, etc. In general, fixed income + has higher requirements than general financial products and must be based on capacity building.

Regarding the trend of the bond market and changes in asset allocation in the second half of the year, Xu Zhe said that the bond market is determined by the three factors of the long, medium and short cycles. Among them, the long cycle is the state of industrial policy and industrial development; the central bank's interest rate corridor has had a greater impact on bonds in the medium cycle in recent years, and its traction effect has been obvious; the short cycle is the game of funds and policies. Now many factors that are favorable to the bond market are generally fully priced. In the second half of the year, the treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate around 2.1%. Some negative or potential negative factors that are gradually recognized by the market, and the current strength of the fundamental bulls will slow down the downward speed of interest rates to some extent. However, it will also be very difficult to move up the framework of the medium and long-term industrial debt cycle and the interest rate corridor.

"Asset management institutions have always been looking for a relatively 'sweet' asset allocation ratio." Xu Zhe said that compared with the past, the situation has changed this year. The supply of many configurable resources has dropped drastically, which will affect returns. For example, the proportion of credit bonds has decreased and the spread has also narrowed. We need to reduce these assets that are not cost-effective, optimize the asset allocation structure, and improve the quality of credit assets. For us, the short-term market adjustment is indeed an opportunity to digest excessive liquidity.

Since the beginning of this year, the scale of the wealth management industry has been fluctuating upward. Xu Zhe said that the degree of responsibility of wealth management banks to investors can stand the test. If the wealth management industry still puts the interests of investors first in the current environment and strives to select the best assets in terms of strategy selection, market judgment and asset selection, I believe that the scale of the wealth management industry is still likely to grow.