news

The three major funds look forward to the future market: A-share valuations are attractive

2024-08-20

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

Where are the opportunities for A-shares in the second half of the year? Will the US stock market continue to adjust? In response to these questions, fund companies including Penghua Fund, Morgan Fund, and UBS SDIC recently released market outlooks showing that A-share valuations continue to be attractive, while opportunities for US technology stocks and Hong Kong dividend stocks still exist.

Regarding the recent adjustments in the U.S. stock market, Li Yue, fund manager of the International Business Department of Penghua Fund, said that there are three main reasons: first, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy have weakened and the market is trading on recession expectations; second, the financial reports of U.S. technology companies have been lower than expected; and third, the collapse of the yen carry trade has exacerbated panic sentiment.

At this point in time, Li Yue believes that there are investment opportunities in the platform-based technology leaders with cloud business support in the US technology stocks, as well as the dividend and Internet sectors of Hong Kong stocks. At present, the earnings certainty of US technology stocks is still high. After this round of adjustments, the valuation has returned to a relatively reasonable level. We are still optimistic about the performance of US technology leaders in the future, but we should not have too much expectation for the upside. Among US technology stocks, we are more optimistic about the platform-based technology leaders with cloud business support. These targets can benefit more directly from the driving effect of AI on revenue.

Recently, Morgan Asset Management (referred to as "Morgan Fund") held a global market overview third quarter strategy meeting. Zhu Chaoping, senior global market strategist of Morgan Asset Management China, said at the meeting that the domestic A-shares may be less affected by arbitrage transactions. With the gradual accumulation of positive factors in the domestic market, after the global market has experienced adjustments, the valuation of A-shares continues to be attractive in global horizontal comparisons.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, Jiang Xianwei, senior global market strategist at Morgan Asset Management China, believes that the earnings growth of A-shares is expected to remain positive throughout the year. The industry sectors that deserve more attention include four aspects: domestic industrial chains with shortcomings, such as chips and computer operating systems; continuing domestic advantageous industries, especially the "new three major items" with outstanding export performance, including new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries; new and old kinetic energy conversion industries; creating opportunities for emerging industries under the guidance of new quality productivity, including artificial intelligence industry chains, low-altitude economic industry chains, etc. In addition, the high dividend strategy that has been paid attention to in China since last year is still worthy of attention in the second half of the year as the domestic economy continues to recover and unknown risks may exist.

In addition, Guotou UBS Fund also stated that it is not pessimistic about the subsequent equity market, and believes that in the context of marginal improvement in weak domestic reality and weak overseas expectations, relevant investment opportunities deserve special attention.

Among the relevant investment opportunities, we are more optimistic about the following main lines:

1) Upstream resource and energy lines: capital expenditure has peaked, and the logic of supply rigidity is still being played out. The previous adjustment of resource stocks was large, and the subsequent stabilization is worth looking forward to. Among them, non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, gold) and energy (oil, coal) are still the focus of attention;

2) Midstream manufacturing leading white horse line: Among them, the leading companies in home appliances, power grid equipment, lithium battery equipment, etc. deserve special attention. This year, the 28 phenomenon in the market is extremely obvious. The market pays more attention to the operating quality of listed companies, and pays special attention to free cash flow, ROE, shareholder return planning, etc. The leading white horses are obviously dominant;

3) Weak correlation line of downstream economy: During the downward phase of the debt cycle, the correlation between economic activities and capital returns will weaken. It is recommended to pay attention to ports, railways, hydropower, etc.