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Guo Tao has been waiting for 14 years to buy a car of his own, having drawn the lottery 85 times without winning once.

"The probability of my situation happening is even lower than the chance of winning the lottery," said Guo Tao, who has never missed a lottery since Beijing issued the lottery policy for motor vehicle purchases in 2010. From six draws a year to two applications a year, he has "never missed a draw," but he has always been a little bit unlucky.

The further you go, the slimmer the chance of success. The number of applicants for the lottery keeps increasing, but the number of winners is decreasing, and the average winning rate of the lottery continues to decline. By June 2024, when the latest lottery in Beijing ended, more than 624,000 families and 2.59 million individual applicants competed for 9,600 ordinary passenger car quotas, of which more than 60% were won by "car-free families" and the individual winning rate was one in a thousand.

The restrictions on car purchases have gradually turned around, and the car purchase restriction policy is being relaxed to varying degrees. Since the beginning of this year, policy documents such as "optimizing car purchase restrictions in accordance with local conditions", "encouraging cities with purchase restrictions to relax vehicle purchase restrictions", and "optimizing car purchase restriction management" have been issued intensively. The "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" issued by the State Council recently clearly proposed to gradually cancel the purchase restrictions on new energy vehicles in various places.

The phrase "gradually cancel" replaced the previous phrases "optimize" and "relax", which is a clearer statement. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference, told China News Weekly: "Gradually canceling car purchase restrictions is already a clear policy direction."