Why did Harris choose Waltz? He has the ability to poach Trump's "base" | Hotspot Analysis
2024-08-07
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The dust has settled.
The running mate chosen by US Democratic presidential candidate Harris is not the previously highly favored Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro, but the 60-year-old Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz.
Why did Harris choose Waltz?
Let me briefly explain that when American presidential candidates are choosing their running mates, that is, vice presidential candidates, they generally consider two important factors.
The first factor is how this partner can help to win votes in the region. In this regard, candidates generally tend to find people from more critical states, especially some key swing states, as running mates.
Another factor is how complementary one's running mate is to the candidate. For example, Biden, an elderly white man, chose Harris, a relatively young minority woman, four years ago.
In both aspects, Waltz is a relatively ideal candidate, better than Shapiro and other candidates.
This can be seen from three aspects.
First, Waltz is the governor of Minnesota, and Minnesota is also a swing state (Biden and Harris won here easily in the last election, but this year's polls show that Minnesota is already a swing state).
Minnesota is also close to Wisconsin and Michigan, both of which are crucial swing states.
Therefore, the Harris camp chose Minnesota Governor Waltz, probably hoping to use him to win more votes in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.
On this point, Waltz is in a better position than Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro.
Second, in terms of complementarity, Waltz also has obvious advantages.
Harris is a liberal from California, and one of the strategies of the Trump camp is to label her as a "radical liberal from California." The Democratic camp is more worried that Harris may not be popular among centrist voters.
Minnesota is a state in the Midwest, and Waltz was born in another Midwestern state, Nebraska. He had an ordinary family environment when he was a child. He joined the army after graduating from high school, and later went to college. He worked as a middle school teacher and a middle school football coach (he also taught in China for a year).
Waltz's rural background, regional background and experience have a certain appeal to some white men in the Midwest, who might have been more likely to support Trump and Vance.
If Waltz works hard in the next campaign, he will be able to attract these white male voters in the Midwest. In other words, he can dig into the base of Trump and Vance.
Waltz and Harris also complement each other in terms of policy positions.
Waltz is from the Midwest and is the governor of a Midwestern state where voters in rural areas are generally conservative.
Waltz's views on some issues, such as his support for gun rights and his strong support for Israel's fight against Hamas, are consistent with those of conservative Americans.
At the same time, he also supports women's right to abortion and the rights of some minority groups, which is another typical liberal stance.
In other words, his position is to have specific views on specific issues, or it can be said to be relatively neutral and moderate.
This is highly complementary to Harris.
Third, according to US media reports, Waltz's personal style is more offensive.
For example, the Harris camp now labels Trump and Vance as "weird", referring to their weird words and deeds.
The word "weird" is said to have been originally used by Waltz to describe Trump, which reflects his verbal offensiveness.
Therefore, some analysts believe that Waltz can play this offensive role in the next campaign. That is, he can attack Trump and Vance fiercely without any scruples and do some "dirty work", while Harris can convey some positive messages, such as "democracy" and "freedom". In this way, the division of labor between the two is more reasonable.
Of course, the above analysis is some post-interpretation made after Harris chose Waltz.
In fact, there may be more relevant information in the future about why Harris chose Waltz; and how much help Waltz can provide to Harris' election campaign remains to be seen.
Text丨Qian Kejin, international commentator of Yangcheng Evening News
