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Nvidia's every move affects the market's nerves!

On Thursday, Nvidia's U.S. stock market fell sharply after a sharp rise; on Friday, Nvidia's U.S. stock market fell by 7% during the intraday trading, and the recent volatility has increased significantly. At the same time, there is also the latest news.

First, the United States has begun to launch an investigation into Nvidia. On the one hand, according to five people directly familiar with the matter, lawyers from the Department of Justice are investigating the acquisition of artificial intelligence startup Run:Ai by semiconductor company Nvidia on antitrust grounds. The two companies announced the deal in late April but did not disclose the price. On the other hand, American progressive groups and Democratic Senator Warren urged the Department of Justice to investigate Nvidia, believing that the company has a dominant position in the AI ​​chip market and opposed Nvidia's practice of bundling software and hardware together.

Secondly, news from the industry pointed out that Nvidia's NV card shipments have been delayed. According to news from a brokerage research institute, the B100 and B200 models have been cancelled, and the previous orders will be delivered at 20% of the order quantity, and then upgraded to B200A, which is expected to start delivery in the middle of next year. However, the progress of GB200 has not been delayed.

Finally, according to media reports, Elliott Management, a top hedge fund on Wall Street that manages about $70 billion (about 500 billion yuan) in assets, told investors that large technology giants, especially Nvidia, are in a bubble, and the artificial intelligence technology that has driven its stock price violently up is over-hyped. The agency said that many of Nvidia's largest customers are also developing their own chips, and Elliott doubts whether large technology companies will continue to buy Nvidia's GPUs in large quantities. According to Wall Street Journal, Elliott declined to comment on the above views.

Overnight in the U.S. stock market, Nvidia's intraday decline once reached 7%, closing at US$107.27 per share.

Nvidia under investigation

According to the U.S. political news website Politico, American progressive groups and Democratic Senator Warren urged the Justice Department to investigate Nvidia, believing that the company is dominating the AI ​​chip market.

The report pointed out that Warren United Progressive Organization and the heads of nine other organizations wrote a letter this week urging Jonathan Kanter, the antitrust chief of the Department of Justice, to investigate Nvidia's business practices and oppose its practice of bundling software and hardware together. These organizations are mainly antitrust and advocate government regulation of technology companies. These organizations said that Nvidia's aggressive proprietary approach seriously violated industry norms on cooperation and interoperability, and its purpose was to lock in customers and stifle innovation.

In June, Reuters reported that U.S. regulators reached an agreement to instruct the Justice Department to oversee a potential antitrust investigation into Nvidia.

Justice Department lawyers are investigating semiconductor company Nvidia's acquisition of artificial intelligence startup Run:Ai on antitrust grounds, according to five people with direct knowledge of the matter. The two companies announced the deal in late April but did not disclose the price.

Run:Ai has a long-standing partnership with Nvidia to enable so-called graphics processing unit (GPU) virtualization, which is one of the reasons why Nvidia has risen to a market value of nearly $3 trillion. Run:Ai's technology essentially allows customers to do more with fewer chips. This is a very valuable service when chips are in short supply.

The Justice Department investigation comes as regulators around the world are examining the burgeoning artificial intelligence industry over national security risks, the potential to facilitate consumer fraud, civil rights violations and copyright protections. At the heart of all these concerns is the fear that a few dominant tech companies control markets in a concentrated way similar to online commerce, social media, online search and advertising.

In late July, the U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission, the European Commission and the U.K. Competition and Markets Authority issued an unusual joint statement outlining concerns that a handful of companies have the necessary resources to compete.

The latest product news

There is also the latest news about Nvidia's products.

According to the latest due diligence on the supply chain by overseas research institutions, the commercialization of Nvidia's Blackwell platform may be delayed. Mass shipments of Blackwell may be postponed to the end of the first quarter or the beginning of the second quarter of 2025, a few months later than the previously estimated September to October 2024.

This could affect the upcoming product portfolio - B100/200HGX, GB200 NVL36/72, and possibly all related devices.

However, Nvidia and its key partners are still improving Blackwell products, including performance and reliability, from GPU design, manufacturing, component procurement and subsystem testing to complex rack system integration.

In addition, the NVIDIA B100, which was originally planned to be mass-produced in the fourth quarter of this year, may be cancelled and the focus will be on the production of GB200. However, according to feedback from some institutions, the NVIDIA B series will only be delayed by 3-4 months, and the H200 will fill the position first. The late shipment of GB200 will not be affected, and a solution has been found. People who are closely connected with TSMC said that the main reason for the delay may be that a standard for circuit stability needs to be changed. A new alternative has been proposed, which will affect the schedule by no more than 4 months.

On August 2, Shenghong Technology's stock price closed down 9.71% at 34.60 yuan per share. Market rumors say that Nvidia may cancel the mass production of the B100 chip, which will affect Shenghong Technology's supply orders. According to 21 Finance, the reporter called Shenghong Technology's Securities Affairs Department as an investor, and the relevant staff said that Shenghong Technology has noticed the information, but from the current production and operation of the factory, everything is operating normally. Shenghong Technology has relevant cooperation with Nvidia, and according to the agreement, specific details cannot be disclosed. It is understood that Shenghong Technology is mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of high-density printed circuit boards, and its products are widely used by manufacturers such as Nvidia and AMD.

Currently, the market demand for B200 is very strong, and customers have switched from B100 to B200 (the demand has exceeded 450,000). The Meta model training party also said that they also need to add B200 orders, at least 150,000 B200s are needed, and it was originally expected to add orders next month. In addition, NVIDIA will mainly launch H200 in the third quarter, and the performance of this quarter is expected to be more than 33 billion US dollars. In October and November, some H200 will be added to customers for emergency response, and everything will be normal by December at the latest.

Editor: Yang Yucheng

Proofread by: Wang Chaoquan