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Cailianshe News, July 31 (Reporter Yan Jun)July ended with a big rise, and today many indicators recorded their strongest day of the month.

Amid the general increase, the data is very impressive.

Let's take a look at the performance of the major indices. At the close of July 31, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 2,900 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.37%, the ChiNext Index rose 3.51%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 4.7%, setting the largest single-day increase since March. A positive line changed the market sentiment, and the "rise to dizziness" became the most suitable headline.

Second, look at the market activity. Today's turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 903.3 billion, an increase of 303.8 billion from the previous trading day, and the first time since May 20 to rise above 900 billion. Previously, the trading volume had been below 600 billion for two consecutive days, and some netizens even joked that they would start a "6000 defense war." On the last day of July, the market turned around.

Third, looking at foreign capital, northbound funds made a net purchase of 19.58 billion yuan today, which is the seventh largest single-day net purchase amount since the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

Fourth, look at the industry sector. Science and technology innovation led the rise, and the CSI 500 and 1000 stood out in terms of broad-based. On the market, securities companies collectively exploded, and cyclical sectors such as social services and home appliances exerted their strength.robot, innovative drugs and low-altitude economic industry connectivity. Overall, cyclical and technology styles have the highest growth, while defensive dividend sectors are relatively weak, indicating that market risk appetite has improved.

The Shanghai Composite Index rarely exceeded 2%, which also triggered the market interpretation mechanism of many fund companies. Many fund companies responded immediately, combining the implementation of important meetings, the recovery of market sentiment and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike tonight to make judgments on the future market.

A long-awaited general rise, 59 ETFs rose by more than 5%

WIND data shows that among the 31 primary industries of Shenwan, 28 industries closed in the green, more than 5,000 stocks out of more than 5,300 stocks in the market rose, and more than 90 stocks hit the daily limit. Unlike the previous period when the index rose and individual stocks fell, today's market money-making effect was significant.

From the perspective of popular indexes, broad-based technology indices such as Science and Technology Innovation 50 and Science and Technology Innovation 100 led the market; in terms of industry indexes, financial technology ETFs, biological vaccine ETFs, and robot ETFs had the highest growth rates.

The total market share of China Financial Technology ETF rose by more than 7% in a single day, 7 ETFs rose by more than 6%, and 58 ETFs rose by more than 5%. Among the 782 ETFs in A-shares, only 22 fell, concentrated in the power, banking and energy sectors.

ETF trading also increased again, with the trading volume of 12 on-exchange ETFs exceeding 1 billion yuan. The trading volume of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF was 5.353 billion yuan, and the trading volumes of Southern CSI 1000 ETF, Hua Xia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF and Southern CSI 500 ETF reached 2.878 billion, 2.804 billion and 2.73 billion respectively.

Why the big rise?

Judging from today's market style, the market has swept away the previous gloomy mood. Influenced by the positive signals of the Central Political Bureau meeting, market sentiment has been fully released. What is the reason for the surge? What factors have changed? Fund companies give their interpretations.

First, policy expectations brought about by important meetings have been raised.

Caitong Fund believes that judging from the sectors with the highest gains today, it is not simply a release of emotions and catalysis of events. In terms of the spirit of this Politburo meeting, although the meeting pointed out that "there are pains in the transformation of new and old kinetic energy", the direction of reform remains unchanged, "focusing on promoting high-quality development is still the core response to economic development, and unswervingly completing the annual economic and social development goals and tasks is still the current top priority", and the meeting pointed out the direction for the next stage of economic development.

The important meeting's clarification of the direction of economic development was recognized by many fund companies. China Asset Management emphasized that the meeting proposed to cultivate and expand emerging industries and future industries, and to effectively support the development of gazelle companies and unicorn companies, while also strengthening industry self-discipline to prevent "involutionary" vicious competition. This is reflected in the performance of the Science and Technology Innovation Board.

Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund believes that this meeting directly addressed economic issues and proposed "accelerating the full implementation of determined policy measures" and "reserve and launch a batch of incremental policy measures early and in a timely manner". The market's expectations for subsequent counter-cyclical policies and increased policy execution have been raised, boosting market risk appetite.

Second, the global liquidity environment has improved.Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund recommends paying attention to the FOMC meeting tonight. Considering the recent cooling signs in the US economy and employment, market expectations for a dovish Fed statement are rising, and expectations of global liquidity easing will boost the performance of emerging market equity assets.

Third, market sentiment has recovered.In the view of Golden Eagle Fund, August may enter an important observation period for policy effects, which may significantly improve the market's current weak expectations for the economy, thereby further opening up room for stock indexes to rise. The policy makers also have clear directions for capital market stability. When the market approaches the previous low, it is no longer appropriate to be overly pessimistic, and the risk appetite of A-share investors may gradually become more positive.

Market outlook: Most fund companies maintain a safety + technology allocation strategy

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, how will fund companies plan their strategy? Most fund companies chose to maintain their previous views, with the value of the market providing a safety cushion, and adding opportunities in the technology theme.

Guotai Fund believes that the overall view has not changed from before. In the short term, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee has deployed further comprehensive deepening of reforms and the promotion of Chinese-style modernization. Combined with the efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, it is conducive to the continued oversold rebound of core assets, especially electric power, medicine, finance, and technology can also benefit relatively.However, in the long run, the macro environment will be more complex in the second half of the year, and technology and security will still be the main themes of policy. The main positions can continue to be biased towards the value of the market, and pay attention to tactical opportunities in the technology theme.

Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund also believes that the current A-share valuation and risk premium are still at historical lows, and the market downside risk is limited. In the short-term market risk preference recovery environment, it is possible to flexibly capture the short-term rebound opportunities of the previous oversold sectors and policy-driven sectors. In the medium term, it is recommended to continue to focus on the value of the market + technology blue chips.

Golden Eagle Fund recommends that investors can appropriately switch between high and low opportunities. The company believes that in terms of A-share industry allocation, short-term trading oversold rebound and domestic policy expectations will maintain a balanced style in the medium term. There will also be opportunities for high and low rotation in the technology sector. In addition to the AI ​​industry trend, continue to pay attention to military industry (orders fulfilled to performance) and new energy (demand in Asia, Africa and Latin America, policies to prevent internal circulation). In terms of consumption, some high-quality targets in some industries that benefit from favorable policy expectations and have significant previous retracements can be paid attention to. High dividends can still be allocated on dips after a correction.

Around important meetings, fund companies try to explore investment directions

The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting analyzed and studied the current economic situation and deployed economic work in the second half of the year. Before this meeting, whether it was the interest rate cut of monetary policy or the "old for new" of fiscal policy, targeted policy arrangements and deployments were made from different dimensions. Therefore, the direction emphasized by the meeting is also an investment area worth exploring in the eyes of fund companies.

Caitong Fund believes that the main line of expanding domestic demand proposed in this meeting is to focus on "equipment renewal" and "old for new", and service consumption is an important means of expanding and upgrading consumption. Therefore, "two new" and "consumption" may be the current direction worthy of attention. In terms of configuration, on the one hand, this meeting clarified the attitude of the top leaders towards the development of emerging industries, "to effectively support the development of gazelle enterprises and unicorn enterprises", that is, to support fast-growing enterprises with high growth, strong innovation, and large track space. On the other hand, the meeting clearly pointed out that cultural tourism, elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping are the directions of policy support, which can easily explain the rising market of consumption and consumer service tracks today.

China Asset Management emphasizes technological innovation and gives three reasons: First, policies have elevated the positioning of technological innovation to a new height. Unicorn companies need not be explained, and gazelle companies refer to small and medium-sized enterprises that have crossed the death valley after starting a business and entered a high growth period supported by technological innovation or business model innovation; second, from the perspective of the industry itself, most technology industries are entering an upward cycle; third, in terms of the macro environment, the Federal Reserve may enter an easing cycle, and domestic monetary policy tends to be relaxed.

Therefore, as the market risk appetite increases, the market may usher in a rebalancing of styles, and the valuation of growth stocks is expected to rise further in the future. The companies listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board are mainly concentrated in the new generation of information technology industries, such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and high-end equipment. They are currently experiencing a triple resonance of strong policy support, a recovery in the technology industry itself, and expectations of loose monetary conditions at home and abroad.