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Kenyan President Ruto Visual China File Photo

According to CCTV News, on July 25 local time, the Kenyan Parliament voted to delete all 65 clauses in the 2024 Finance Bill. The MPs agreed with President Ruto's reservations about the bill and voted unanimously to delete all clauses.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the fiscal bill passed by the Kenyan National Assembly on June 25 clearly stated that additional taxes would be levied to raise funds to continue to repay the high sovereign debt interest. On the same day, protests against the tax increase broke out in the capital Nairobi, with protesters storming the parliament building and clashing with the police. The next day, Ruto refused to sign the bill, returned it to the parliament, and asked the parliament to delete all the clauses in the bill.

In the following month, protests demanding Ruto's resignation continued. Ruto tried to quell the Kenyan people's growing dissatisfaction with the government by cutting the budget deficit, cutting funding for the leaders' wives' offices, and even dissolving the cabinet and nominating four important members of the opposition to the new cabinet.

However, so far, these measures have had little effect, accusations and protests continue, and Kenyan society is facing a profound political and economic test. It remains to be seen whether Ruto's further compromise can truly ease tensions or is just a stopgap measure.

A “corrupt deal”?

According to Reuters and the BBC on July 24, after the domestic protests continued and the government was forced to dissolve, Ruto nominated John Mbadi, Opiyo Wandayi, Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya to join the new cabinet, serving as Minister of Finance, Minister of Energy, Cabinet Secretary for Mining and Blue Economy, and Cabinet Secretary for Cooperatives respectively. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Energy are the most powerful departments in Kenya.

All four are important members of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). The Orange Democratic Movement is the core party of the National Super Alliance, the main opposition alliance in Kenya. In the Kenyan general election two years ago, Ruto defeated the leader of the Orange Democratic Movement and the presidential candidate of the National Super Alliance, Raila Odinga, and was elected president of Kenya.

According to Al Jazeera on July 24, although Ruto wanted to calm the public's anger with this move, protesters remained skeptical. They accused it of being a "corrupt deal" and said that the public could not gain any benefits from the cooperation of hostile political parties. The BBC reported that protesters opposed Ruto's attempt to form a "broad-based" cabinet, saying that this would perpetuate the deal between Kenya's political elites. According to Reuters, one of the organizers of the protest, Boniface Mwangi, a well-known anti-government activist in Kenya, wrote on the social platform X: "'Zacchaeus' appointed corrupt elements to fight corruption." "Zacchaeus" is a greedy tax collector in the Bible. Kenyan protesters used this nickname to satirize President Ruto. Kenya's The Star reported on the 26th that during a demonstration in Nairobi on the 25th, several activists, including Mwangi, were arrested. The demonstration was organized by Mwangi to protest against excessive police violence.

On July 22, the Orange Democratic Movement led by Odinga said that it had not negotiated with the government on "any alliance or political arrangement". On July 23, Odinga issued a statement through the official X account of the National Super Alliance, warning members of the Orange Democratic Movement not to join President Ruto's government. Odinga said that his and the party's position is that the government must first resolve some key issues before engaging in any form of contact with the Ruto government.

Despite the opposition party's statement, protesters still expressed strong dissatisfaction with the possible formation of a coalition government. In the comment section of the "National Super Alliance" statement on the 23rd, a large number of Kenyan netizens accused Odinga of being a traitor and opposed the party's members joining the Ruto government. Mwangi wrote on X: "Odinga is a traitor who betrayed the people and formed a plundering government with 'Zacchaeus'." The BBC reported on July 24 that it is not clear why Odinga was not nominated by Ruto to join the cabinet. He may be busy preparing for the next African Union Commission Chairman.

Kenya's The Nation reported on the 26th that Ruto's nomination of the opposition to the cabinet was "throwing the baggage on the opposition party" and was a "political trick" that put the opposition party on the opposite side of the people. According to Kenya's Star on the 26th, there has been a split trend within the Kenyan opposition party, and "observers unanimously believe that it is only a matter of time before the 'National Super Alliance' disintegrates." Currently, Martha Karua from the National Rainbow Coalition of Kenya (NARC) has announced that the party has withdrawn from the "National Super Alliance." In the general election two years ago, Martha Karua was Odinga's deputy and served as the vice presidential candidate of the "National Super Alliance."

Continued concessions amid fierce protests

Kenya's 2024 fiscal bill, which was first announced on June 18 and passed by the National Assembly a week later, was the trigger for the massive protests. The bill clearly stated that additional taxes would be levied to continue to repay the interest on the high sovereign debt.

As soon as the bill was made public, young Kenyans began organizing peaceful street demonstrations on social media platforms to force the government to completely abandon the fiscal bill. On June 25, a demonstration broke out in the capital Nairobi, where protesters stormed the parliament building and clashed with the police.

According to Reuters, the protests were initially peaceful but turned violent as Kenyan police intervened.

On June 26, Ruto admitted that the 2024 fiscal bill had caused "widespread dissatisfaction" and said he would not sign the bill. According to Al Jazeera, protesters were "indifferent" to Ruto's concessions. Demonstrations continued in many parts of the country, and protesters demanded that Ruto step down.

The ongoing protests forced Ruto to make further concessions. According to the Associated Press on July 10, Ruto said the government plans to cut the $2.7 billion (about 19.6 billion yuan) budget deficit in half and make up the rest by borrowing. Facing protesters' anger at bureaucracy and corruption, Ruto also promised to cut the budget of his own office and stop funding the offices of the wives of the president, vice president and cabinet secretaries.

On July 11, Ruto made another concession by dissolving the cabinet. According to Reuters on the 11th, Ruto announced the dismissal of most cabinet ministers and the Attorney General on the same day, retaining only the positions of Vice President Rigathi Gachagua and Chief Minister and Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadi.

Ruto declared in a televised speech that he would immediately start consultations with various parties to seek to establish a "broad-based" government. However, according to Al Jazeera on July 16, most activists rejected Ruto's invitation for dialogue and urged the government to take immediate action on issues such as corruption. The protesters also demanded the dismissal of the police chief and the accountability of police officers and officials suspected of killing protesters.

The BBC reported on July 24 that about half of the 20 new cabinet members nominated by Ruto were members of the previously dissolved cabinet, which further aroused the anger of the protesters. Currently, Ruto's cabinet nominations still need to be approved by parliament before they can take effect. According to Kenya's The Star, the focus of the current street demonstrations has shifted to the review of cabinet nominees.

Unbalanced pro-Western policy

The protests, which have lasted for six weeks, have snowballed in size, and protesters' demands have evolved from opposing tax increases to multiple political demands, including demanding Ruto's resignation, opposing violent police crackdowns, and demanding comprehensive reforms to address corruption. Kenyans' calls for political transparency, economic fairness, and social justice can no longer be ignored.

The tax increase measures under the heavy burden of domestic and foreign public debt totaling up to US$80 billion (about RMB 576 billion) are undoubtedly the fuse for the Ruto government's current difficulties. In the view of some Western analysts, this protest is also the result of the imbalance of the Ruto government's pro-Western policy in diplomacy and domestic affairs.

Since taking office in 2020, Ruto has firmly "sided" with the West, seeking to integrate into the "circle" of Western countries, and paying particular attention to strengthening cooperation with the United States. In May this year, Ruto visited the United States and became the first African leader to visit the United States since 2008. Kenya has become the first non-NATO ally of the United States in sub-Saharan Africa. Ruto is also committed to expanding Kenya's diplomatic influence and positioning himself as a mediator of regional conflicts. According to statistics from Kenya's Daily National, Ruto made a total of 62 trips to 38 countries in the first 20 months of his administration. As for Western-dominated international organizations, Ruto is also "responsive to every request." Ruto's attempt to levy taxes is to some extent to "appease" the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has a debt of up to US$3.5 billion in Kenya and is still growing steadily. In April this year, the IMF pointed out that Kenya has a serious tax shortage, which will continue to increase its domestic borrowing needs.

An analysis by the U.S. magazine Foreign Affairs on July 25 pointed out that Ruto has been committed to presenting an image of a good partner to the United States, but "it is difficult for ordinary Kenyan citizens to identify the specific benefits and disadvantages of deepening partnership with the United States."

Ruto came to power promising to free Kenya from "debt slavery" but has failed to lead Kenya out of its debt crisis. Critics have long pointed out the massive waste of public spending to offset the debt and accused the president of pandering to Western-dominated institutions such as the IMF, Al Jazeera reported.

Ruto also promised to reduce the cost of living and increase job opportunities for young Kenyans. It is precisely young people who constitute the main body of this protest, causing "the biggest crisis in Ruto's two years in office."

According to reports from the BBC and Al Jazeera, Ruto has lost the support of a considerable number of young people since coming to power. Many young people have almost no job prospects and they want to end the corruption and poor governance that has been prevalent in the government for many years.

"America's admiration for Ruto must not undermine his commitment to Kenyans," Foreign Affairs wrote.