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21st Century Business Herald reporter Han Liming and intern Li Jiayu report from ShanghaiThe market for weight loss drugs is in full swing, and analysts are constantly raising their market expectations. Last year, JPMorgan Chase predicted that, driven by the two giants of semaglutide and telportin, annual sales of GLP-1 drugs will exceed $100 billion in 2030. Just six months later, BMO Capital Markets raised its expectations to $150 billion.

Behind this is the continuously growing market demand. According to the fifth edition of the World Obesity Atlas, it is estimated that by 2030, the number of people with a BMI value ≥ 25kg/m² (overweight) will exceed 3.5 billion (46% of the total population), and the number of people with a BMI value ≥ 30kg/m² (obese) will exceed 1.5 billion (20%).

Domestically, Frost & Sullivan data shows that due to factors such as improved living conditions and lack of exercise in my country, the number of obese people has increased rapidly in recent years and is expected to reach 329 million by 2030. With huge market demand, as Eli Lilly's tirpotide injection has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for long-term weight management, it has officially started a head-on competition with Novo Nordisk's Novowin (semaglutide injection for long-term weight management), and domestic pharmaceutical companies are also racing to develop.

In addition to pharmaceutical companies, many food companies are also "rushing to the beachhead." Stephan Gratziani, global president of Herbalife, told 21st Century Business Herald, "As a global company that has been deeply involved in the health field for more than 40 years, Herbalife is currently the largest company in China in terms of weight control and weight loss. As the weight loss market continues to grow, we will also invest more in research and development and production capacity to cover more sectors in the big health field."

R&D, production capacity, price, all-round market share

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are global leaders in the development of GLP-1 drugs for diabetes and weight loss.

Among them, Novo Nordisk's semaglutide series includes 3 products, namely the subcutaneous injection preparation Ozempic (for hypoglycemic), the oral tablet Rybelsus (for hypoglycemic) and the weight loss product Wegovy. In 2022, semaglutide sales reached US$10.9 billion, becoming the world's first GLP-1 drug with sales exceeding US$10 billion.

This data is rising year by year. In 2023, semaglutide achieved sales of US$21.201 billion, of which Wegovy soared 407% to US$4.6 billion. In the first quarter of 2024, the three semaglutide products with different indications and dosage forms maintained double-digit growth rates or above, and Wegovy's growth rate was still in the leading position, with sales of US$1.362 billion, up 106% year-on-year.

Eli Lilly's tirpotide was approved by the U.S. FDA in May 2022 for improving blood sugar control in adult patients with type 2 diabetes, becoming the world's first GIP/GLP-1 dual-target receptor agonist. In November 2023, the FDA approved the drug for weight management under the trade name Zepbound. In 2023, Eli Lilly achieved operating revenue of US$34.124 billion, of which tirpotide contributed US$5.163 billion in sales, accounting for 15.13% of total revenue. In the first quarter of 2024, the product achieved revenue of US$517 million, exceeding Wall Street expectations.

As the number of competitors increases, Novo Nordisk held an earnings call on May 2, 2024 local time. The company's Chief Financial Officer Karsten Munk Knudsen said that due to huge sales and fierce competition, Novo Nordisk plans to lower the price of its weight loss drug Wegovy in the United States.

In addition to price, the first thing Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly need to solve is production capacity and supply. In February this year, Novo Nordisk will acquire three filling plants originally belonging to Catalent from the Novo Nordisk Foundation with an advance payment of US$11 billion, further expanding the production capacity of the diabetes and obesity product portfolio led by Ozempic and Wegovy.

Eli Lilly also mentioned in its 2023 financial report that it will continue to implement its production expansion plan. In early April this year, Eli Lilly held a groundbreaking ceremony for a new factory in Frankfurt, Germany, which is mainly used to produce injectable drugs and injection pens. The investment is US$2.5 billion and aims to solve drug shortages including Zepbound.

Judging from the current market layout, the development of drugs targeting GLP-1 receptors has become the mainstream of clinical research on weight loss drugs. In addition to Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, multinational pharmaceutical giants such as Pfizer, Amgen, and Boehringer Ingelheim also have products under development. Costanza Alciati, a pharmaceutical analyst at GlobalData, said that GLP-1 will continue to dominate the weight loss market in the foreseeable future, but "new players entering the field are already looking for the next drug category that may completely change the field."

"The market size of GLP-1 will continue to grow in the future, especially in the area of ​​obesity. This market has just opened up and is in a stage of rapid growth." An industry insider told 21st Century Business Herald that as the number of drugs on the market gradually increases, the overall price of GLP-1 drugs may decline, and market competition is expected to become more intense.

With more and more players entering the market, who can seize more market share is also attracting much attention.

Multi-dimensional "division" of the market cake

CITIC Securities estimates that the market size of GLP-1 receptor agonists for weight loss in China will reach 38.3 billion yuan in 2030. Novo Nordisk's patents for semaglutide in China and India will expire in 2026, which will also provide market opportunities for more latecomers.

According to the official website of the Center for Drug Evaluation of the National Medical Products Administration, the application for listing of semaglutide injection "Jiyoutai" submitted by Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering Co., Ltd. was accepted, and the date of application was July 18. It is reported that this is the first semaglutide biosimilar drug to be listed in mainland China, which is used to control type 2 diabetes.

In terms of weight loss indications, according to the Insight database, as of July, 22 innovative GLP-1 drugs with weight loss indications have entered Phase II clinical trials and above in China. At the same time, many biosimilars of liraglutide, semaglutide and dulaglutide have also entered Phase III clinical trials and marketing applications, and the market competition is extremely fierce.

For example, Innovent Biologics announced in June that the results of the first Phase III clinical study (GLORY-1) of the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R)/glucagon receptor (GCGR) dual agonist, Mastolide, on liver fat content in overweight or obese adult subjects in China were published in the form of a blockbuster progress abstract (1857-LB) at the 2024 American Diabetes Association (ADA) Scientific Meeting. In addition, Hengrui Medicine's HRS9531 for weight loss therapy has entered Phase III clinical trials.

In order to implement the relevant work requirements of the "Healthy China Action (2019-2030)" and prevent and control overweight and obesity, the National Health Commission and 16 other departments issued the "Weight Management Year" Activity Implementation Plan in June. Under this influence, my country's weight loss market will continue to rise.

In addition to drugs, the weight loss food market is also showing a booming development trend. Stephan Gratziani analyzed, "For a long time, everyone wanted to have a magic 'magic pill' or 'magic shot' to control weight. But what we see now is that, on the one hand, like many other types of drugs, GLP-1's early indications were used to treat diabetes, and as the indications expanded, it was gradually used for weight management. Generally speaking, the use of drugs must take into account the 'two-sidedness' of the drugs, and it is up to the user to weigh whether the benefits outweigh the disadvantages or the disadvantages outweigh the benefits."

"On the other hand, after users inject GLP-1, their appetite will decrease significantly, and they need to maintain high-quality food intake at this time, which also provides many new opportunities for the food market." According to Stephan Gratziani, Herbalife invested 160 million yuan in China to establish the world's first product innovation center. The goal is to truly achieve local product innovation and empower the world with Chinese innovation on the basis of satisfying the local Chinese market.

Public data shows that there are currently 45,000 companies in my country that have the word "weight loss" in their company names, business scope, or branded products. From the changes in the annual number of company registrations over the past 10 years, nearly 60,000 companies related to "weight loss" have been registered in the past 10 years. Data shows that by 2023, the market size of slimming foods will reach 400 billion yuan.

"With the increase in market demand for weight loss and the popularization of healthy eating concepts, the demand for weight loss foods in the market is also continuing to grow. However, with the diversification of consumer demand and the intensification of market competition, the weight loss food industry is also showing a trend of cross-integration with other industries, such as cooperation with the medical, nutritional products and other industries. The integration of upstream and downstream of the industrial chain will also improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the industry." said the above-mentioned industry insider.