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China Fund News reporter Wen Xi

Although Tesla's performance "collapsed" and Robotaxi "delayed delivery", Tesla CEO Elon Musk still released several key information points to the public.

On July 24, Beijing time, Tesla released its second quarter financial report for 2024. The report showed that Tesla's net profit attributable to shareholders in the second quarter was only US$1.48 billion, a year-on-year decline of 45%. At the same time, its Robotaxi (automatic taxi) launch conference will be postponed to October 10, two months later than originally planned.

However, Musk also revealed in a conference call that FSD (Tesla's fully autonomous driving system) may be licensed in China by the end of this year, and its humanoid robot Optimus is expected to be mass-produced and delivered in 2026.

Automobile gross profit margin continues to decline

According to the financial report, Tesla achieved revenue of $25.5 billion in the second quarter of this year, an increase of 2.3% over the same period last year, exceeding market expectations. Looking at this data alone, Tesla's performance is acceptable.

In terms of details, Tesla achieved revenue of US$890 million from the sale of carbon credits in the second quarter, more than doubling year-on-year; while revenue from energy generation and storage business was US$3.01 billion, doubling year-on-year; revenue from after-sales, used cars, auto insurance and other services also increased by 21%.

However, the core car sales business achieved revenue of US$18.53 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%. In terms of vehicle delivery, in the second quarter of this year, Tesla delivered a total of 444,000 vehicles worldwide, a decrease of 22,000 vehicles from the same period last year.

What has attracted more attention from the market is the change in Tesla's gross profit margin. Tesla's overall gross profit margin in the second quarter was 18%, which is lower than the level of nearly 30% in previous years, but has increased compared with the past three quarters.

However, Tesla's automotive business gross profit margin is worrying. Its second-quarter automotive sales gross profit margin has fallen to 13.9%, the lowest in history. In the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, Tesla's automotive sales gross profit margin was 16.6% and 15.6% respectively.

Tesla's vehicle gross profit margin has dropped significantly, which will eventually be reflected in its earnings. In the second quarter, Tesla's operating profit was $1.61 billion, a year-on-year decrease of $790 million; its net profit was $1.48 billion, a decrease of $1.23 billion, a decline of 45%. After the financial report was released, Tesla's after-hours stock price once fell by more than 10%.

In fact, Tesla's vehicle sales pressure is visible to the naked eye, especially in the two major markets of China and the United States. In the first half of 2024, Tesla's sales in the United States fell by 9.6% year-on-year. In the second quarter of this year, Tesla's share of the US electric vehicle market fell below 50% for the first time.

In the Chinese market, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla's wholesale sales in China were 426,600 vehicles in the first half of 2024, down 10.5% year-on-year. In order to boost sales, Tesla launched a five-year interest-free financial policy in July and announced that it would continue until August 31.

FSD may be approved in China before the end of the year

During the earnings call, Musk also revealed a lot of information that the market was concerned about. Previously, the industry generally expected that Tesla's next comeback would be Robotaxi and FSD.

However, Tesla had no choice but to "postpone" the launch date of Robotaxi. Musk revealed that Robotaxi is scheduled to be released on October 10.

Earlier, Musk posted on his personal social media platform that Tesla Robotaxi will be launched on August 8. He explained that the reason for the delay in the release of the car was that he requested changes to the vehicle design. "It will be possible to achieve unmanned driving by the end of this year at the earliest, and next year at the latest."

However, Musk gave a "timetable" for the first time in terms of FSD. When FSD can be implemented in China has always attracted attention. Musk revealed this time that "Tesla may obtain FSD licenses in other markets, such as Europe and China, by the end of this year."

Recently, there have been continuous news about Tesla's FSD entering China. On June 3, Baidu Maps officially released a video of Tesla's actual testing of the V20 version, officially announcing that "Baidu Maps lane-level navigation will soon be available on Tesla."

After entering July, there was news that the Shanghai Lingang New Area is promoting the implementation of Tesla FSD pilot projects, involving 10 Tesla vehicles to conduct road tests in Shanghai. In the industry's view, Tesla FSD has reached the "final step" to enter the Chinese market.

In the second quarter of this year, Tesla's FSD (supervisory version) launched a new version, which mainly relies on eye tracking software to monitor the driver's attention. At the same time, it also focuses on reducing intervention and improving driver comfort.

Optimus to be mass-produced and delivered in 2026

In addition, in the field of humanoid robots, Musk also gave a time node. He said that the second-generation humanoid robot Optimus is already processing battery tasks in the factory, and it is expected that thousands of Optimus will be performing tasks in Tesla factories by the end of next year, and then the production will be increased in 2026 to start delivery to external customers.

At the 2024 shareholders' meeting, Tesla demonstrated the latest progress of Optimus in control and execution capabilities. In the video, Optimus walks smoothly and can flexibly grab and put down objects. Its movements and control are closer to humans, showing a higher level of intelligence.

For Tesla today, the Optimus robot is not only a showcase for technological innovation, but also an important part of the future business model. Musk expects that Optimus will significantly improve the production efficiency of Tesla factories in the future and is expected to occupy a place in the global labor market.

At the 2024 shareholders' meeting, Musk boldly predicted that in the future the ratio of humanoid robots to humans will exceed 1:1, and even reach an astonishing ratio of 2:1, indicating that the global humanoid robot market will have a huge capacity of 10 billion to 20 billion units, and the annual output may be as high as 1 billion units.

The industry estimates that if Tesla can occupy a 10% market share, its annual production will reach 100 million Optimus robots. The cost of a single robot is expected to be controlled at around $10,000. Based on a selling price of $20,000, Tesla is expected to achieve a profit margin of $1 trillion each year.

Editor: Joey

Audit: Wooden Fish

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