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IT Home reported on July 22 that on the eve of the opening of the Farnborough Air Show, Boeing released its 2024 Civil Aviation Market Outlook (CMO).It is predicted that by 2043, the world's airlines will need nearly 44,000 new civil aircraft。

As air travel fully recovers, the latest forecast for aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years is 3% higher than last year's forecast. The outlook also predicts that demand in emerging markets and the global single-aisle market will continue to be the main growth drivers for the civil aviation industry.

According to the CMO, air passenger traffic will grow by an average of 4.7% per year over the next 20 years compared to 2023.

Highlights of the CMO predictions for the next 20 years include:

• The global civil fleet is expected to grow by 3.2% per year, slower than air traffic, as airlines continue to improve productivity by filling more seats and increasing the number of hours a day their aircraft are in use.

• Air cargo, with its advantages of speed and reliability, has consistently outperformed other forms of freight, and the freighter fleet will increase by two-thirds by 2043 to support annual air cargo volume growth of 4.1%.

Air Travel Trends:

• The average global airline ticket price is almost the same as it was 20 years ago, even though overall prices have doubled.

• The number of routes served by airlines worldwide has returned to 2019 levels, with nearly 20% of these routes being new, demonstrating the industry’s ability to adapt in a dynamic market.

Key growth drivers:

• Emerging markets return to historical growth trends over the forecast period, with South Asia’s passenger traffic growing by 7.4%, followed by Southeast Asia (7.2%) and Africa (6.4%).

• Eurasia is expected to be the largest market for aircraft deliveries (22% of the total), followed by North America (20%) and China (20%).

• Single-aisle aircraft will account for 71% of the fleet in 2043, with a total of 33,380 new aircraft delivered, thanks to their flexibility to serve short- and medium-haul routes.

• The global widebody fleet will more than double, with twin-aisle aircraft accounting for 44% of the Middle East fleet.

Growth in demand for services:

• Boeing predicts demand for civil aviation services is worth $4.4 trillion, driven by maintenance, modification programs and digital solutions that increase efficiency.

• As air travel expands, especially in emerging markets, the civil aviation industry will need nearly 2.4 million new personnel and the associated training to support new pilots, mechanics and cabin crew.

IT Home Note: Boeing has released CMO every year since 1961. As the oldest forecast report of its kind, CMO is considered to be a more comprehensive analysis of the civil aviation industry.