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Zhitong Finance APP learned that Tianfeng Securities released a research report saying that the expectation of US interest rate cuts has increased, and attention should be paid to whether the US and Chinese policies can resonate. We continue to be optimistic about high dividend directions such as "patient assets", and new quality productivity may have performance opportunities. We are optimistic about the continued interpretation of the subsequent high dividend style, and a new round of diffusion within the dividend sector. The new "Nine Articles of the State" mentioned "market value management" and "improving the return on investment in the secondary market". Under the resonance of policy logic and market logic, high dividend assets with monopoly and scarcity are expected to be revalued.

Market thinking: Expectations of US interest rate cuts increase, and attention is paid to whether US and Chinese policies can resonate

1) The June US price data was released, and US inflation cooled down across the board. From the performance of sub-items, the CPI energy sub-item continued to record negative values ​​month-on-month, core service inflation continued to decline, and the rent sub-item fell for the first time since February. Powell's speech had previously raised expectations for interest rate cuts. After the release of the inflation data that fell across the board, expectations for interest rate cuts in September rose again. After the release of the inflation data, market interest rate cut transactions fermented, US bond interest rates and the US dollar index weakened, US stocks diverged, and small-cap stocks made up for the gains. 2) In the future, the Fed's interest rate cut transactions may improve global liquidity, which is beneficial to the performance of the A-share denominator, and the domestic policy easing space has opened up, boosting market risk appetite, but attention should also be paid to the timing of the interest rate cut. In addition, the interpretation of interest rate cut transactions still needs to focus on the June PCE inflation data, the Q2 US GDP preliminary data, the August FOMC interest rate meeting, and the US election. The interest rate cut is not yet determined, and there may still be disturbances in the future. In addition, the policies of the subsequent Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee and the July Political Bureau meeting may become the main line again. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the interpretation of US and Chinese policies resonates.

Domestic: Inflation and social financing fell in June, and exports rebounded

1) CPI fell year-on-year in June, PPI fell by a narrower margin year-on-year, core CPI remained unchanged, and the PPI-CPI gap narrowed. In terms of CPI, the decline in food items widened, while non-food items remained unchanged. In terms of PPI, the decline in means of production narrowed, while the decline in living materials remained unchanged. 2) Export growth continued to pick up in June, while imports fell. Exports (in US dollars) rose by 8.6% year-on-year, up 7.6% from the previous value, and imports rose by 3.9%, up 5.1% from the previous value. In terms of exports, most commodities rebounded year-on-year, and electronic information products, resource products, and downstream consumer goods generally rebounded. In terms of imports, most commodities deteriorated. 3) The increase in social financing scale in June was 3.3 trillion yuan, and the social financing pulse index fell to 24.83%. In terms of structure, new government bonds fell, and the three off-balance sheet items turned negative. In terms of credit structure, the year-on-year increase in medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents was small and wide. 4) In terms of high-frequency indicators of transportation, the subway passenger volume index rebounded, and the freight flow index rebounded. 5) The industrial production index fell, soda ash rebounded, Shandong local refineries, polyester filament, methanol, tires, and Tangshan blast furnaces fell. 6) Domestic policy tracking: The People's Bank of China will carry out temporary positive repurchase or temporary reverse repurchase operations depending on the situation. The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the suspension of securities lending business in accordance with the law to further strengthen the counter-cyclical regulation of securities lending.

International: U.S. inflation fell across the board in June

1) Tracking the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: NATO countries issued a joint statement, promising to provide Ukraine with more air defense systems; NATO "set conditions" for Ukraine to join, and Poland reiterated that Ukraine "must win the war". 2) Tracking the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Before the ceasefire negotiations were restarted, the Israeli military's military operations in the Gaza Strip in Palestine were still ongoing; Hezbollah in Lebanon said that if Gaza ceased fire, it would cease fire with Israel; the Israeli Prime Minister said that Israel's military operations against Hamas would continue "until all goals are achieved". 3) Inflation in the United States fell across the board in June, and the core CPI excluding food and energy fell. Before the release of inflation data, Powell said at a hearing held by the House Financial Services Committee that "we will return to an inflation level of 2%, and I am quite confident about this. We don't need to wait until the inflation rate drops to 2% before we start to cut interest rates." According to CME's "Fed Watch", as of July 13, 2024, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by September is 90.3%.