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Zhitong Finance APP learned that Guosen Securities released a research report saying that dividends are the basis and reverse trading is moderately increased. The main impact of "interest rate cut trading" on the domestic equity market is that the pressure on the denominator is reduced, but for growth assets of "reverse trading", the current performance differentiation is extreme, and the trend of changes in the numerator is more important. Pay attention to petroleum and petrochemicals, utilities, etc., Hong Kong Stock Connect high-quality dividend assets; pay attention to growth with strong fundamentals, electronics, fruit chain, semiconductor design; dividend internal free cash flow to revenue ratio + retained earnings marginal changes point to medicine, food and beverage (non-white wine).

The specific directions of the two ideas of "dividend-based" and "reverse trading" are as follows:

1) Dividend-based:Improved liquidity may lead to a convergence of the excess advantage of dividends over other styles, but it provides more opportunities for bottom-up selection of "dividend" +. Petroleum, petrochemicals, utilities, etc. with price increase logic and decent dividend yields are worth paying attention to. From the perspective of expected dividend yield, look for high-quality companies in the automotive parts, pharmaceutical commerce, and industrial metals industries from the bottom up;

2) Reverse Trading:Focus on growth with strong fundamentals, electronics, Apple supply chain, and semiconductor design; the ratio of dividend internal free cash flow to revenue + marginal changes in retained earnings point to pharmaceuticals, food and beverages (non-liquor).

Judging from the overall situation of the interim report, the pressure on the molecular side has not been relieved

The overall positive rate of the 2024 interim report forecast is weaker than seasonal, and the loss rate exceeds the positive rate for the first time. From the perspective of micro-enterprises, operating pressure still exists. Since the second quarter, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises has converged. Taking the four types of forecast samples of "expected increase + slight increase + continued profit + turnaround" as the basis for positive forecasts, it is not difficult to find that the positive rate has remained at a relatively low level since Q2 2022, but the loss rate (the proportion of "first loss + continued loss" samples) continues to increase. It is expected that there will still be certain pressure on the A-share numerator. In terms of primary industries, utilities, beauty care, automobiles, electronics, transportation, and petroleum and petrochemicals have higher positive rates; in terms of secondary industries, marine equipment, aviation airports, industrial metals, and home appliance parts have the upper hand in the mid-term forecasts.

What are the prosperity signals from the perspective of the industrial chain? What is the reference effectiveness?

1) Upstream:The ranking of forecast performance is petroleum and petrochemicals> non-ferrous metals> chemicals> steel> coal, and the reference effectiveness of coal and non-ferrous forecast samples is stronger. Comprehensive reference effectiveness, the prosperity signal points to industrial metals, precious metals, special steel, chemical raw materials, and chemical fibers.

2) Midstream:There is a large differentiation, and the ranking of the mid-term report forecast performance is automobile> machinery> building decoration> power equipment> building materials> national defense and military industry. The reference effectiveness of the automobile, building materials and military industry forecast samples is stronger. The prosperity signal points to navigation equipment (shipbuilding), commercial vehicles, auto parts and other power equipment.

3) Downstream consumption:The overall recovery is obvious, with agriculture, social services, and reference effectiveness being strong, while home appliances, beauty care, food and beverage, and medicine are relatively weak. The boom signals for optional consumption point to papermaking, home appliance parts (refrigeration equipment), tourist attractions, and Internet e-commerce, while the boom signals for essential consumption point to breeding (pigs), feed, food processing, and beer.

4)TMT：The differentiation is obvious, electronics>communications>computers>media, and electronics has the strongest reference effect. From the comprehensive reference effect, the prosperity signal points to components, optics and optoelectronics, semiconductors, and other electronics.

5) Financial real estate:As the economy weakens, the reference effectiveness of securities and diversified finance is relatively weak, and the reference effectiveness of insurance is also weak.

6) Supporting industries:Utilities>Transportation>Environmental protection. The reference effectiveness of other sub-sectors except aviation airports is average, and the weather at aviation airports has recovered significantly.