military experts believe: the situation at the ukrainian army’s defense line in donbas is critical
2024-10-03
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reference news network reported on october 2according to a report on the german news and television channel website on september 30, the german news and television channel website recently conducted an exclusive interview with austrian military expert and army colonel marcus reisner.
german press tv website asked: ukraine reported that fierce fighting broke out near vukhledar and pokrovsk over the weekend. do you have anything to say about this?
austrian army colonel marcus reisner replied: what we are seeing is the climax of the russian summer offensive. russia hopes to achieve as many results as possible before the mud period arrives. therefore, the russians launched an offensive against many places in donbas. in the kupyansk area they were almost reaching the oskol river. but the most critical situation is in central donbas, including pokrovsk, which you just mentioned.
q: what happened there?
a: i don't think the russians will take the city before the mud period. but pokrovsk is an important logistical hub for ukraine’s third and final line of defense. behind it as far as the dnieper river there is no danger. pokrovsk is now within range of russian artillery. we must assume that in order to charge, the russians would first blow the city to rubble.
question: it is said that vukhledar, south of pokrovsk, is about to fall.
answer: vukhledar will fall. the russians have implemented a tactical siege of the city, which means that the only way for ukrainians to evacuate the city is under russian firepower. the 72nd mechanized brigade was effectively trapped in vukhledar and their commander was dismissed on sunday.
question: will kiev let these soldiers become prisoners of war of the russian army?
answer: this brigade once had 2,000 to 3,000 people, but now it is said that there are hundreds to nearly a thousand people trapped there. there are people on the social media of both russia and ukraine saying that the two sides are negotiating on the withdrawal of ukrainian troops. the question is whether the russians will agree. the ukrainian army may also launch a limited counterattack to create conditions for the withdrawal of troops from vukhledar. but the russian army has added 5,000 troops to block the encirclement.
q: let’s look at russia’s kursk region where ukrainians still occupy large swathes of territory. what happened there?
a: ten days ago, the russian army launched a counterattack on the western flank of the ukrainian-controlled area, but only regained some lost ground in the early stages of the operation. at present, the intensity of the fighting has generally been reduced to local counterattacks by both sides. but russian forces are continuing to hit the ukrainians' western flank with artillery bombardments and air strikes. the ukrainians are helpless against this attrition attack. if they want to retaliate, they must attack airports and ammunition depots located deep in russian territory, but western allies still do not allow kiev to do so.
q: let’s talk about ukrainian president zelensky’s trip to the united states. there he proposed his so-called victory plan. at best, the response has been mixed.
a: zelensky failed to realize his plans. it turns out: putin is a better poker player than zelensky. the new york times reported that the u.s. government is worried that if ukraine launches an attack with western long-range missiles, moscow may directly strike the united states and europe in retaliation. furthermore, it can be seen from that article that washington, unlike kiev, does not believe that striking the russian interior will have a big effect.
q: what other results has zelensky achieved during this visit? he originally wanted to tell the world that ukraine was sure to force putin to make concessions through bombing?
a: the american media evaluated his victory plan very negatively. i interpret the u.s. government’s actions as an attempt to make kyiv understand that ukraine needs a more realistic plan. the u.s. government clearly does not believe that ukraine can regain all the occupied territories. based on this view, a ceasefire can only be achieved through difficult compromises. this does not mean that the united states will give up on ukraine. ukraine's role is to act as a buffer zone between russia and nato. but washington appears to be pushing kyiv to show a greater willingness to compromise.
q: but kiev has shown that it can hurt russia by using drones to strike targets deep inside russian territory. or is this kind of blow just for others to see?
a: no, you only have to think about the attack on the toropets ammunition depot. ukraine destroyed approximately 30,000 tons of munitions there. for reference: the explosion yield of the "hiroshima atomic bomb" was 16,000 tons of explosives, and the "nagasaki atomic bomb" was 22,000 tons. but the key point is that to achieve what we call saturation in military terms, such strikes must be carried out in rapid succession to bring the enemy to its knees. it's like a boxing match, you can't give your opponent a chance to breathe. but ukraine could only land a few punches in each round and counted on the opponent perhaps losing his footing after a while. this is a war of attrition that has been going on for 950 days.
q: is ukraine competing with israel for favor with washington?
answer: the resources of the united states are also limited. therefore, the more israel relies on the united states to supply weapons, the fewer weapons ukraine will obtain. in this regard, we have also heard warning voices in the united states. this shows that the us arsenal is being emptied. let me give you an example. the united states has so far given ukraine 8,500 javelin anti-tank missiles, but its annual production is still only 800. this means that for this weapon alone, the united states has provided production for more than 10 years. (compiled by wang qing)
