the "battle" for integrated circuit equipment has begun. how will jiangsu respond?
2024-09-30
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from september 25th to 27th, the 2024 integrated circuit (wuxi) innovation and development conference and the china electronic special equipment industry association semiconductor equipment annual conference were held in wuxi. more than 1,000 well-known domestic and foreign companies gathered on the banks of taihu lake to jointly explore the future of the industry through 3 theme exhibitions, 8 series of activities and 15 leading enterprise ecosystem activities.
in the face of industrial competition, only by being "prepared" can you be safe. the reporter learned during the meeting that at present, the global semiconductor industry is still in a "downward" cycle, but it is expected that the semiconductor equipment market will rebound sharply by 2025. faced with foreseeable growth, countries are going all out to start the "battle for equipment" . at present, the market share of domestic semiconductor equipment is about 1/4. how can chinese companies seize this new round of industry opportunities? how should jiangsu, which leads the country in the scale of integrated circuit industry, respond to this "preparation" war?
the market experiences “m-shaped” fluctuations
during the meeting, many experts and scholars pointed out that in the past two decades, the global semiconductor industry has experienced "m-shaped" fluctuations due to the impact of global gdp growth and technology drivers.
the lack of cores is a concentrated reflection of this round of industry “downturn”. judging from the global semiconductor supply chain inventory situation, the global core shortage problem will be the most serious in 2021. in addition to the structural contradictions in supply and demand, factors such as epidemics, disasters, and geopolitical frictions hit the semiconductor industry chain that year, resulting in core shortages. the problem is compounded.
data released by the world semiconductor trade statistics (wsts) shows that global semiconductor sales will be us$526.9 billion in 2023, still in the industry down cycle.
however, the industry generally believes that the current global semiconductor demand has bottomed out. the emergence of artificial intelligence products such as chatgpt has brought a new round of technological innovation. in addition, products such as ai chips, hbz chips and automotive control chips have promoted the recovery of demand in the semiconductor industry. , the industry will re-enter the upward cycle in 2025.
the forecasts from major institutions are also generally optimistic. the latest world fab forecast report from the international semiconductor industry association (semi) states that in order to keep up with the continued growth in chip demand, global semiconductor manufacturing capacity is expected to grow by 6% in 2024 and reach 7% in 2025. % growth, reaching a record high of 33.7 million wafers per month.
the world semiconductor trade statistics organization predicts that global semiconductor revenue is expected to grow by 16% in 2024. in 2025, the global semiconductor market is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of more than 10%. driven by ai and automotive chips, the scale of the semiconductor industry is expected to exceed us$1 trillion in 2030.
governments around the world are increasingly aware of the strategic importance of semiconductors and have introduced various subsidy policies to promote the growth of the semiconductor supply chain. countries and regions represented by the united states and europe have introduced chip bills. south korea and japan have also provided huge subsidy funds to support the semiconductor industry. there are also a series of domestic industrial policies to support the semiconductor industry. countries have entered "fierce industrial competition."
the “independence rate” is rising year by year
needless to say, china's chip development once lagged behind the world's advanced level. taking r&d investment as an example, in 2022, the total r&d expenditure on semiconductor products in the united states will reach us$58.8 billion, accounting for 18% of sales, while china's r&d investment will only account for 7.6% of sales. the gap is clear at a glance.
in recent years, china has been struggling to catch up. feng li, senior director of industry research and consulting at the international semiconductor industry association, reviewed the process of production capacity transfer - in 2000, the united states and japan dominated half of the semiconductor production capacity, and at that time, mainland china's production capacity only accounted for 2%. since 2010, semiconductor production capacity has begun to shift to asia. the combined production capacity of south korea and taiwan has reached 35% of the global production capacity, and at this time, the production capacity of mainland china has also reached 9%. in 2020, with the large-scale construction of new production lines and the expansion of original production lines, mainland china's production capacity proportion will increase to 17%.
trends can be seen from the dynamics and changes in global fab investment. relevant statistics show that from 2024 to 2027, the world will invest us$538 billion in wafer fab equipment, which will increase by 48% compared with 2020-2023. mainland china, south korea, and taiwan will still spend the most on wafer fab equipment. among the top three regions, mainland china is far ahead. this shows that china is catching up rapidly.
in fact, the independence rate of my country's semiconductor industry is rising year by year, from 14% in 2012 to 18% in 2022, and is expected to reach 26.6% in 2027.
"from the perspective of equipment, according to relevant calculations, the market share of domestic semiconductor equipment in 2023 will be 25.2%, an increase of 2.2% from 2022." jin cunzhong, deputy secretary-general of the china electronic special equipment industry association, revealed during the meeting that the association surveyed 84 companies in 2023. a survey of semiconductor equipment manufacturers above designated size with sales revenue exceeding 10 million yuan found that most of these companies have achieved independent control of core components, and many companies have even achieved complete independent control.
but it’s not time to “sit back and relax”. many problems still exist objectively. some key domestic integrated circuit production equipment have a low market share. for example, the import proportion of photolithography machines, ion implanters, chemical vapor deposition equipment and other products still accounts for the absolute majority. at the same time, the reliability and key indicators of core components of domestic equipment need to be improved. he reminded that if the reliability problem of parts and components is not solved, the market competitiveness of domestic equipment will be seriously affected.
domestic equipment welcomes the "window"
at present, domestic semiconductor equipment has ushered in the development "window".
on the one hand, ai development has promoted process upgrades and production capacity expansion, which will inevitably drive investment in semiconductor equipment. on the other hand, affected by the control of chinese semiconductor equipment by the united states, the netherlands, japan and other countries, my country has increased its demand for localization and independent research and development of key semiconductor equipment. under multiple promotions, the industry generally believes that my country's global market share of semiconductor equipment will continue to increase.
according to the judgment of the china electronic special equipment industry association, sales revenue of semiconductor equipment in mainland china is expected to increase by 35% in 2024, reaching about 110 billion yuan. where is the main increase? jin cunzhong analyzed that the main growth points of semiconductor equipment include two major areas - one is wafer manufacturing and chip manufacturing in integrated circuits, and the other is solar cells. the market has also verified this. currently, solar energy equipment worldwide is mainly made in china, because crystalline silicon solar cells have an absolute advantage in china.
semiconductor packaging and testing is the "last mile" of the chip manufacturing process, and china has the world's largest advanced packaging market. the simultaneous holding of the china semiconductor packaging and testing exhibition in wuxi attracted more than 100 well-known domestic and foreign companies to participate.
suzhou xinrui technology co., ltd. is a company focusing on the research and development, production, manufacturing and sales of semiconductor wafer bonding equipment. zhang fei, the company's deputy general manager of technology, said that in the field of semiconductor packaging, "permanent bonding" means combining two wafers through physical and chemical means. it has the technical characteristics of high precision, high efficiency and high reliability, and its application fields include high-tech products such as semiconductor manufacturing and optoelectronic devices. nanoscale devices are also being planned.”
in addition to making increments, we also need to continue to crack down on the "hard bones" that are "stuck". li jinxiang, an expert member of the electronic science and technology committee of the ministry of industry and information technology and deputy secretary-general of the china electronic special equipment industry association, concluded that there are five main types of process equipment for integrated circuits - pattern generation, additive equipment, subtractive equipment, material modification, and measurement equipment. the photolithography machine that everyone is relatively familiar with is exactly the graphics generation device.
where should domestic lithography machines focus their efforts? li jinxiang said that lithography machines are completely different from other equipment. even if the hardware is made exactly the same as others, it cannot achieve its functions. what is more critical is software and process integration technology, which is also the key direction of research and development for localization.
jiangsu looks forward to the "core" future
currently, large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods have become an important part of the national strategic deployment.
jiangsu is a major equipment manufacturing province and also a major equipment user province. the integrated circuit industry has high investment intensity and a fast equipment update cycle. this round of large-scale equipment updates is a rare opportunity for the integrated circuit industry to update and upgrade.
cao yang, the second-level inspector of the provincial department of industry and information technology, introduced that jiangsu, as an important gathering place for the domestic integrated circuit industry, has gradually cultivated and built a city along the yangtze river and the yangtze river with wuxi, suzhou, nantong, nanjing and other cities as the core and lianyungang, xuzhou, huai'an and other cities as the support. along the canal, there are characteristic integrated circuit industry clusters. in 2023, the province's integrated circuit industry will achieve sales revenue of more than 320 billion yuan, and the industry scale continues to rank first in the country. "equipment updating is a systematic project that requires the coordination and linkage of production, supply and marketing, upstream and downstream, government, banks and enterprises." cao yang said.
take wuxi, the host of this event, as an example. integrated circuits are one of the city's four landmark industries. in 2023, the planned output value of wuxi's integrated circuit industry will reach 240 billion yuan, ranking second in the country. the scale of the "three core industries" of design, manufacturing, and packaging and testing ranks 5th, 3rd, and 1st among cities nationwide. in the list of the top 100 cities with comprehensive competitiveness in the global integrated circuit industry released by the world integrated circuit association, wuxi ranks 16th and has formed a highly competitive industrial ecology.
enterprises have the deepest perception of market conditions and ecological advantages and disadvantages. having been deeply involved in wuxi for many years, leading holdings group co., ltd. has built leading integrated circuit equipment and components materials industrial park in the local area. currently, more than 20 high-end semiconductor technology teams have gathered in the park. wang yanqing, chairman of the company, judged that as domestic semiconductor production capacity continues to expand, the pace of integration of the semiconductor equipment industry as a supporting link will surely accelerate, and platformization will become an inevitable trend. the industrial park must link upstream materials and components, manufacturing links and downstream terminal applications. enterprises gather more resources and form greater synergy.
industrial ecology is accelerating integration. during the entire event, the wuxi integrated circuit industry special fund of funds was released, the yangtze river delta (wuxi) semiconductor equipment and parts industry and finance alliance was unveiled, and huiran technology semiconductor measurement equipment project and other industrial projects that filled the gap in related equipment were launched...
participants said that as an important position in the domestic semiconductor industry and backed by the yangtze river delta ecosystem, jiangsu has ushered in this round of golden opportunities for the development of equipment, materials and components. with government collaboration and capital support, it is expected to create unlimited opportunities. the "core" future of reverie.
xinhua daily·junction point reporter fu qi qinghai daily reporter zhang hongxu
