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according to xinhua news agency, the presidential election of the liberal democratic party of japan was held in tokyo on september 27. former liberal democratic party secretary-general shigeru ishiba was elected as the 28th president of the liberal democratic party. on october 1, he will succeed fumio kishida as the new prime minister of japan through a nomination election in the provisional parliament.

the 67-year-old shigeru ishiba has run for president of the liberal democratic party four times, all of which ended in defeat. this is the fifth time he has launched an attack on the position of president of the liberal democratic party, and he regards this election as the "final settlement of his political career." in the end, he was elected as he wished.

wang xinsheng, professor of the department of history at peking university and president of the china society for the history of sino-japanese relations, said in an interview with a reporter from the beijing news that the most important factor for shigeru ishiba to be elected president of the liberal democratic party this time may be that liberal democratic party members believe that he can contribute to the party. provide support for the upcoming house of representatives election to maintain the party’s ruling position. in terms of foreign policy, he is expected to seek more autonomy within the framework of the japan-us alliance and maintain dialogue with china.

at the regular press conference of the chinese ministry of foreign affairs held on september 27, foreign ministry spokesperson lin jian said that the long-term, healthy and stable development of china-japan relations is in the fundamental interests of the two peoples and is the only correct choice. it is hoped that japan will learn from history, adhere to the path of peaceful development, abide by the principles and consensus established in the four political documents between china and japan, establish an objective and correct understanding of china, pursue a positive and rational policy towards china, and comprehensively promote the strategic and mutually beneficial relationship. we must implement our positioning and work with china in the same direction to promote the sustained, healthy and stable development of china-japan relations along the right track.

shigeru ishiba was elected in a reversal

there are nine candidates in this liberal democratic party presidential election, the largest number in history. since 1972, the largest number of people participating in the liberal democratic party presidential election was in 2008 and 2012, with five people running each time.

analysts believe that in the past presidential election of the liberal democratic party, a candidate was elected after coordination among factions. now that many important factions have been dissolved, it is no longer possible for the above-mentioned nomination mechanism to function directly. some members of the party want to try to attack the new president. , thus forming a situation of "all heroes rising together".

according to the liberal democratic party presidential election rules, in the first round of voting, each of the 368 liberal democratic party members of parliament has one vote. the votes of local councilors, ordinary party members and "party friends" (registered supporters) are equivalent to 368 votes, totaling 736 votes. those who get more than half of the votes. elected president.

if no one passes the first round, the top two teams will advance to the final round. the weight of diet votes has increased, with each of the 368 diet members getting one vote, and each of the 47 prefectural ldp branch federations getting one vote. the one with the most votes wins.

in the first round of voting, due to the large number of candidates and the split of votes, none of the nine candidates received more than half of the votes. therefore, the top two vote-getters shigeru ishiba and minister of economic security and security sanae takaichi entered the second round. their votes were 154 and 181 respectively, and the gap was clearly visible.

in the second round of voting, the proportion of parliamentary votes increased. in addition, japanese media mentioned many times before that ishiba shigeru lacked a factional foundation in the party and was at a relative disadvantage in terms of parliamentary votes. the outside world almost believed that takaichi sanae was about to vote. became japan's first female prime minister.

however, the votes in the second round were reversed. ishiba shigeru received 215 votes, higher than takaichi sanae's 194 votes, and was elected the 28th president of the liberal democratic party.

in this regard, wang xinsheng told the beijing news reporter that the election results were somewhat unexpected: in the first round of voting, takaichi sanae's local vote was slightly ahead of ishiba shigeru, and the parliamentary vote was significantly ahead. but in the run-off, she lost all her parliamentary and local votes to shigeru ishiba. in particular, her parliamentary vote lagged behind ishiba, who was originally considered to lack the support of parliamentarians.

there are multiple reasons for this result. in wang xinsheng’s view, the most important factor may be that he is more influential in the (house of representatives) election than takaichi sanae.

according to japanese practice, after being elected as president of the liberal democratic party, he will take over as prime minister. the prime minister has the power to dissolve the house of representatives and usually chooses a time that is favorable to his party to dissolve the house of representatives and conduct re-elections to maintain his position in power. under normal circumstances, the three months after a new prime minister takes office is the "honeymoon period" of public support. people have new expectations for the new prime minister, and the support rate is often at a high level. therefore, after being elected as president of the liberal democratic party and taking over as prime minister, one of his important tasks is it is to dissolve the house of representatives.

"in terms of elections, shigeru ishiba is more suitable as the face of the 'election' to attract votes." wang xinsheng pointed out that ishiba shigeru had left the liberal democratic party before and then rejoined the liberal democratic party. some members of the liberal democratic party had concerns about him, but consider that he is a vote-getter.

public reports show that shigeru ishiba advocates a strict investigation of political "black money" and believes that the problem of "power-money politics" has seriously affected the reputation of the liberal democratic party. he advocates that all members should explain in detail the source and use of political funds not only to the party's top leaders, but also to ordinary party members. , to increase transparency in the use of political funds. analysts believe that this responds to public concerns to a certain extent.

"sanae takaichi is politically extreme right-wing, and many members may not be able to accept her. they are worried that her policies will cause uncontrollable consequences, which will not be conducive to winning the support of as many voters as possible in the house of representatives election. therefore, she is not members who were less pressured in the election finally chose ishiba shigeru," wang xinsheng said.

in addition to having an electoral advantage, another factor that enabled ishiba to win was the dissolution of the majority faction within the liberal democratic party. faction factions existed when the liberal democratic party was founded. they were once able to pool the votes of their members and "protect" a favorite candidate's election for party president. today, affected by the "black gold" scandal, all major factions except the "aso faction" have been disbanded.

"some members of the liberal democratic party tried to get rid of the constraints of traditional factions and vote, which to a certain extent prompted shigeru ishiba, who has the most political experience, to be elected as the new president." wang xinsheng said.

has competed for the liberal democratic party president seat four times

shigeru ishiba was born in tokyo in 1957. shortly thereafter, when his father jiro ishiba went to tottori prefecture to serve as governor, he also moved to tottori to attend school. until high school, he returned to tokyo to attend school. in 1979, shigeru ishibakeio universityafter graduating from the faculty of law, he did not enter politics directly, but joined mitsui banking corporation.

in 1981, former japanese prime minister tanaka kakuei persuaded ishiba to join politics. in 1986, he was elected to the house of representatives for the first time and entered politics since then. he regarded tanaka kakuei as his "political mentor."

in 1993, he left the liberal democratic party due to differences of opinion with the party. however, he rejoined the liberal democratic party in 1997.

in 2002, shigeru ishiba entered the cabinet for the first time as the head of the defense agency. since then, he has served as minister of defense, minister of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, minister in charge of national strategic special regions, and minister in charge of local development.

shigeru ishiba has participated in the liberal democratic party presidential election four times, but failed each time.

the first time was after the resignation of then prime minister yasuo fukuda in 2008. shigeru ishiba received the fewest votes among the five candidates and failed.

in september 2012, shigeru ishiba came out again and topped the five candidates in the first round of voting with his huge advantage in grassroots party member votes. however, because he did not get more than half of the votes, he entered the second round of voting with shinzo abe, who had made a comeback. because the second round of voting depended on the votes of members of the diet, ishiba lost to abe, who has deep roots in the liberal democratic party faction.

on august 10, 2018, he announced his candidacy for the liberal democratic party presidential election in september. although he performed well in local votes, he ultimately failed to win.

in august 2020, the then prime minister shinzo abe said that he resigned as prime minister and president of the liberal democratic party due to the recurrence of ulcerative colitis and concerns that his deteriorating physical condition would affect the handling of national government affairs. since he resigned midway, the new president's term is abe's remaining term, which is until the end of september 2021. on september 1 of that year, shigeru ishiba announced his participation in the presidential election, but lost in the subsequent vote. outsiders believe that the main reason is that he lacks allies within the party and cannot stand alone.

this is his fifth time running for president of the liberal democratic party, and he regards this campaign as the "final settlement of his political career." after a fierce vote, he finally got his wish.

domestic and diplomatic challenges are daunting

the term of current japanese prime minister fumio kishida as president of the liberal democratic party will end on september 30. according to cctv news reports, as usual, the new liberal democratic party president shigeru ishiba will be nominated by the national assembly on october 1 and is expected to take over as prime minister.

"i will protect the country and protect the people. let everyone feel happy, safe and secure." shigeru ishiba said in his canvassing speech before the second round of the decisive round. analysts believe that shigeru ishiba will face severe domestic and foreign affairs challenges after taking over as prime minister.

during the current liberal democratic party presidential election, shigeru ishiba stated that he would continue the policies of the kishida government. it is expected that shigeru ishiba will implement this statement after becoming prime minister, such as pushing japan out of "deflation", increasing the income of ordinary people, and improving the aging problem.

in terms of diplomacy, one thing that attracts the attention of the outside world is how shigeru ishiba will affect sino-japanese relations after becoming prime minister. "in terms of relations with china, ishiba is more prudent than takaichi sanae. it is expected that the overall attitude will be inclined to dialogue with china and keep communication channels open." wang xinsheng said.

public reports also show that although he advocated the establishment of an "asian version of nato" during this election, he once proposed a foreign policy of "maintaining an honest attitude toward asia and history." in an interview with the media in 2020, he also emphasized the relationship between china and japan. the importance of building trusting relationships. he had previously publicly refuted the so-called "china threat theory" and said that some people in japan were exaggerating.

the outside world is also paying attention to how shigeru ishiba, who is regarded as a hawk in the party, will treat japan-us relations. wang xinsheng said, "he may increase japan's autonomy within the framework of the japan-us alliance."

japanese media mentioned that he advocated changing the "asymmetric" japan-us alliance and amending the "japan-us status agreement" to allow the self-defense forces and the us military to jointly manage us military bases in japan. although there are precedents in italy and other countries for countries to manage u.s. military bases in that country, in japan, where the u.s. military has absolute management rights, ishiba's ideas are much more radical than the liberal democratic party's stance of "not causing trouble with the united states."

"but there are still some uncertain factors, and japan-china and japan-us relations still need to be observed." wang xinsheng pointed out.

beijing news reporter zhu yuehong

editor chen xiaoshu

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