can tanaka kakuei's "last disciple" shigeru ishiba reshape japan's liberal democratic party?
2024-09-28
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on september 27, at the liberal democratic party headquarters in tokyo, japan, shigeru ishiba greeted people after being elected as the 28th president of the liberal democratic party. xinhua news agency photo
where there's a will, there's a way.
shigeru ishiba, whose motto is "birds of prey fly without flocks of birds", challenged the throne of the president of japan's liberal democratic party for the fifth time, and finally realized his long-cherished wish and was successfully elected. in his speech, he emphasized: "the liberal democratic party must be a party that abides by the rules and trusts the people."
in recent years, the liberal democratic party has been widely criticized due to the black gold issue and the scandal of the old unification church. the operation of national government has been in trouble, and it bears a heavy responsibility for the political distrust caused. it is urgent to get rid of the corruption of "politics and money" to rebuild public trust. at the same time, facing the pressure of high prices, japanese people urgently need proactive fiscal policies to restore a stable life. against this background, new president shigeru ishiba shoulders the important task of reshaping the liberal democratic party, and people expect it to be able to reverse japan's declining national power.
shigeru ishiba is known as tanaka kakuei's "last disciple" and was deeply influenced by him. however, amid the internal challenges of the liberal democratic party and changes in the external environment, whether this political legacy can be inherited and carried forward to reshape the liberal democratic party is not only related to the ldp's the future is more about japan’s national direction.
1. from a weak local voice to a political superstar: the rise of the ishiba family
shigeru ishiba's native place is hatou town, hatou county, tottori prefecture. tottori prefecture is the smallest county in japan, with an area of only 3,507 square kilometers. this "smallness" symbolizes the "weak voice" of the local area on the national political stage. spreading this "weak voice" to the whole country relies on the efforts of three generations of the ishiba family.
shigeru ishiba's grandfather, shigeru ishiba, was engaged in agriculture in his early years, but he was studious and focused on education. although he did not receive a full schooling, he worked hard to teach himself and recorded english lectures. later, ishiba was elected as the mayor of omikado village in 1908 and actively participated in local governance, laying the foundation for the ishiba family to emerge in local politics.
his father, jiro ishiba, graduated from the faculty of law at tokyo imperial university and worked for the ministry of internal affairs. he held important positions in the metropolitan police department and local governments and was active in the fields of social welfare and education. after 1947, he participated in post-war reconstruction. in 1952, he was appointed director of the urban bureau of the ministry of construction. in 1955, he was promoted to deputy minister of construction affairs. in 1958, he was elected governor of tottori prefecture and became a local politician deeply loved by the villagers.
shigeru ishiba was born in chiyoda ward, tokyo on february 4, 1957. under the influence of strict family education, he gradually developed a diligent and pragmatic character. he has loved reading since he was a child. in elementary school, he was immersed in the military stories of "zero fighter" and "battleship musashi" by yoshimura akira. in middle school, he read "doubts after the war" by shimizu kitaro and "the meaning of life" by tanaka michitaro. 》, he deeply thought about the social changes and human nature in post-war japan. in high school, he paid attention to the works of writers such as ishikawa tatsuzo and explored social issues. these readings not only enhanced his historical and political awareness, but also cultivated critical thinking and the character of flying birds of prey.
in 1979, shigeru ishiba successfully graduated from the department of law, faculty of law, keio university, and received systematic legal training. this legal background not only cultivated his sensitivity to law, but also subtly shaped his high attention to policy details and pragmatic attitude. in 1986, with the support of liberal democratic party heavyweights tanaka kakuei and watanabe michio, ishiba ran for the house of representatives for the first time in his hometown of tottori prefecture. with extensive grassroots visits and in-depth interaction with voters, he was successfully elected and officially entered japanese politics. as a young congressman, ishiba quickly rose to prominence. his attitude in policy formulation and his understanding of national security issues earned him widespread support in his constituency and gradually accumulated popularity nationwide.
since entering politics in 1986, ishiba has been elected to the house of representatives for 12 consecutive times, demonstrating a strong voter base and political influence. he has rich policy experience in the fields of defense and agriculture, and has held many important positions, including director of the defense agency (2002-2004), minister of defense (2007-2008), minister of agriculture, forestry and fisheries (2007-2008), secretary-general of the liberal democratic party (2012) -2014), minister of local revitalization (2014-2016) and other important positions inside and outside the party. these experiences not only enhanced his political status, but also enabled him to accumulate profound experience in policy formulation, national security, agricultural development, and local revitalization, making him an important figure in japanese politics.
2. tanaka kakuei’s “last disciple”
ishiba shigeru's political career was deeply influenced by tanaka kakuei. the deep connection between ishiba shigeru's family and tanaka kakuei can be traced back to the time when ishiba shigeru's father, ishiba jiro, was a bureaucrat in the ministry of internal affairs. in 1947, when ishiba jiro was serving as the general affairs section chief of the war disaster reconstruction institute, he met tanaka kakuei, who had just entered the political arena. both of them were born in local rural areas - ishiba jiro from tottori prefecture and tanaka kakuei from niigata prefecture. they sympathized with each other because of their similar backgrounds and supported each other in the growth period of their respective careers. this friendship not only played an important role in the political careers of the two, but also profoundly affected ishiba's growth and future political path.
according to ishiba shigeru's memoirs, ishiba jiro's admiration for tanaka kakuei reached the point where he almost followed him to death, and even expressed his willingness to "sacrifice himself for tanaka." tanaka kakuei also provided key support in ishibajiro's political career. although ishiba jiro was suggested to run for tokyo governor, he chose to return to his hometown as governor of tottori prefecture, which showed his deep feelings for his hometown. during the election, tanaka not only cared about ishiba jiro, but also took care of his family, and even waited with ishiba jiro's daughters when the election results were announced. this warm support will be remembered by the ishiba family. after ishiba jiro passed away, tanaka kakuei served as the chairman of the funeral committee, which shows the deep friendship between the two.
ishiba shigeru's political enlightenment is also closely related to tanaka kakuei. shigeru ishiba, who was originally an employee of mitsui banking corporation (now sumitomo mitsui banking corporation), once visited tanaka's private residence to express his gratitude to tanaka. during that visit, tanaka kakuei said to the then 24-year-old ishiba shigeru sincerely: "take your business card to thank everyone who attended the funeral. this is the basic skill of the election." this is not only a suggestion about etiquette, but also a urge ishiba shigeru to actively participate in politics. tanaka further encouraged ishiba to participate in the house of representatives election and taught him how to conduct election planning.
later, as a tanaka faction clerk, ishiba followed tanaka kakuei's teachings during the campaign and visited 54,000 households in the tottori prefecture constituency, ultimately winning 56,534 votes. tanaka kakuei's electoral concept of "the number of households visited determines the number of votes" has been fully verified here. this experience profoundly affected ishiba shigeru's political practice.
although ishiba shigeru was not officially affiliated with the tanaka faction, tanaka kakuei's political wisdom, local governance concepts and economic policies had a profound impact on his political thought. tanaka particularly emphasized the importance of grassroots politics, a concept that profoundly influenced ishiba's campaign strategy. by visiting constituencies and maintaining close contact with voters, he has developed a style of taking root in the local area and serving the people, which has won him long-term support among local voters. tanaka's grassroots political philosophy not only ran through ishiba shigeru's entire political career, but also became the core of his political practice. therefore, ishiba shigeru called himself "the last disciple of tanaka kakuei", demonstrating his inheritance and commitment to tanaka's political legacy. continue. in 2018, when celebrating the 33rd anniversary of becoming a member of parliament, shigeru ishiba specially visited the tanaka kakuei memorial hall to express his deep respect for this political mentor and reiterated that he would continue to practice tanaka’s political philosophy and continue his pragmatic spirit and political legacy. .
3. a political career that flies in the face of birds of prey
there are significant differences in the political philosophies of ishiba shigeru and tanaka kakuei when it comes to dealing with the long-standing "money power politics" issue of the liberal democratic party. shigeru ishiba has always insisted on reform and is closely connected with transparent politics. during his political career, he has repeatedly demonstrated his firm attitude towards corruption within the liberal democratic party. in 1988, the "liculut incident" broke out in japanese politics, causing a huge scandal due to collusion between politics and business. shigeru ishiba and the ten elected members of the same period felt that the liberal democratic party might collapse, so they established the "utopia political research association" and disclosed the salary and salary of secretaries. office expenses directly promoted subsequent political reforms. this move shows his pursuit of transparent politics.
in 1993, dissatisfied with the liberal democratic party's performance in electoral system reform, ishiba decided to leave the party and joined the new party, which supported the right of collective self-defense and constitutional amendments. however, as the internal power struggle intensified within the new progressive party (editor's note: the new progressive party is one of the predecessors of the new progressive party, the new progressive party merged with several new progressive parties to form the new progressive party), shi po left the party again in 1996 and rejoined the party in 1997. return to the liberal democratic party. looking back on this experience, ishiba admits that he seems to have a "rebellious gene" that goes against the majority opinion.
after returning to the liberal democratic party, ishiba began to play an important role in the cabinet. despite this, he always maintained an outspoken attitude. when the liberal democratic party suffered a disastrous defeat in the upper house election in 2007, ishiba directly criticized then prime minister shinzo abe at a party meeting, pointing out that abe's campaign strategy failed. this style of daring to question leaders has earned ishiba the reputation of "shooting his allies in the back", and he also admitted that he "has repeatedly caused dissatisfaction with his outspoken remarks."
in 2012, shigeru ishiba once again challenged the liberal democratic party presidential election. although he ranked first in the party member vote, he ultimately lost to shinzo abe due to insufficient support from members of congress. to this end, ishiba established the factional "shuiyuehui" in 2015 in an attempt to promote policy discussions through a stronger organization and build a more powerful team in the election. however, his position within the party gradually changed to that of "intra-party opposition", and in 2016 he refused to stay in office in the cabinet reshuffle, further antagonizing the mainstream factions.
although he received about 45% of party member votes when he challenged the presidential election for the third time in 2018, ishiba was ultimately isolated due to his opposition to abe's faction. in 2020, he ran for president of the liberal democratic party again, but was defeated miserably in the competition between yoshihide suga and fumio kishida, ranking third. the faction faction "shuiyuehui" was also disbanded in 2021, and ishiba's influence was weakened.
ishiba never gave up his belief in reform. on august 24, 2024, he announced his participation in the liberal democratic party presidential election in his hometown of tottori prefecture. this will be his fifth and last time to compete for this position. he said that this was not only a summary of his 38-year political career, but also the "final battle."
4. shigeru ishiba’s counterattack in the presidential election and the power reorganization of the liberal democratic party
on september 27, japan’s liberal democratic party ushered in a high-profile presidential election. after the political black money scandal and factional disbandment movement, this election broke the tradition of factional politics and was called the "presidential election without factions". a total of nine candidates ran for the election, a record high, showing competition within the party. intense situation.
none of the candidates received majority support in the first round of voting. economy and security minister sanae takaichi temporarily leads with 181 votes (72 votes for members, 109 votes for party members), followed by shigeru ishiba with 154 votes (46 votes for members, 108 votes for party members). with the votes of party members closely tied, the flow of votes from members of congress once again became the key to determining victory or defeat. after entering the second round of the showdown, the competition between ishiba and gao shi reversed. ishi po received 215 votes (189 votes for members and 26 votes for party members), surpassing gao shi's 194 votes (173 votes for members and 21 votes for party members). in the end, ishi po won shigeru was successfully elected in the fifth presidential election of the liberal democratic party.
although public opinion generally believes that this victory is partly due to the support of shinjiro koizumi. koizumi won 75 parliamentary votes in the first round of voting. analysts believe that most of these votes turned to ishiba in the second round, helping him reverse the situation and successfully be elected president of the liberal democratic party. but we should also see that this indicates that the power structure of the liberal democratic party is quietly changing.
first, the "little rock river alliance" already plays an important role in the liberal democratic party. the trio of shigeru ishiba, shinjiro koizumi and taro kono are considered "allies" because of their shared political philosophy and calls for reform within the ldp, demonstrating how japanese politics is changing in response to the needs of a new generation of voters. although they do not officially belong to the same camp, they are all running separately in this presidential election. in the first round of elections, shigeru ishiba received 154 votes (46 votes for members, 108 votes for party members), shinjiro koizumi (75 votes for members, 61 votes for party members), and taro kono (22 votes for members, 8 votes for party members). they have already occupied the respective positions. 37% of the total votes of members and 46% of the votes of party members. considering that taro kono only received in-principle support from taro aso this time, aso’s actual support went to takaichi sanae, which shows that the three-person alliance of the “koishi river alliance” can challenge the status of the mainstream faction within the party.
secondly, taro aso’s strategic mistakes are obvious. in this liberal democratic party presidential election, although taro kono had already announced his candidacy, taro aso suddenly announced on the day of voting that he would support sanae takaichi. this move was undoubtedly a political miscalculation. not only did he expose his intention to manipulate the election as the last powerful faction within the liberal democratic party, he also further lost the trust of taro kono. in the context of new president shigeru ishiba's promotion of intra-party structural reforms, the future survival of the aso faction and the political trends of taro kono will become important factors affecting the power structure within the party.
third, kishida fumio wisely chose to withdraw from the election early and successfully joined the ranks of "kingmakers". in the first round of voting, the votes of local party members were basically tied, and the votes of members of congress became the key factor in determining the outcome. excluding the 22 votes of the swinging taro kono camp, as a power play among the party bosses behind the scenes, the main forces of the yoshihide suga camp include shigeru ishiba's 46 votes, shinjiro koizumi's 75 votes, and katsunobu kato's 16 votes. a total of 16 votes are predicted. got about 137 votes. relatively speaking, aso's camp includes takaichi sanae's 72 votes, kobayashi takayuki's 41 votes, and motegi toshimitsu's 47 votes, and is expected to get about 160 votes. therefore, the key to deciding the outcome lies in the 61 votes in the hands of fumio kishida (38 votes by hayashi masaru and 23 votes by yoko kamikawa). kishida's final choice will have a significant impact on the election results. because of this, taro aso and yoshihide suga are not the "kingmakers" of this election, and the leadership at the critical moment is in the hands of kishida. this also laid the foundation for kishida to retire early and join the ranks of "kingmakers". on the other hand, if takaichi sanae wins, it will mean the victory of the aso faction and the remaining forces of the seiwakai. for kishida, this election also provides him with an opportunity to attack the aso faction and the seiwakai, thereby demonstrating his political influence and strategic planning capabilities.
5. can shigeru ishiba reshape the liberal democratic party?
in an interview before the election on september 27, shigeru ishiba said that if the "ishiba regime" is established, he will form a "gathering cabinet" to bring together elites inside and outside the party to deal with domestic and foreign challenges. shigeru ishiba, who is known for his outspokenness and insistence on principles, faces not only the important task of reform within the liberal democratic party, but also needs to lead the liberal democratic party to get rid of "money power politics" and solve many domestic and foreign problems under the pressure of the opposition parties and the scrutiny of the people.
ishiba mao experienced power struggles within the party many times, and his character and political stance were tempered in the process, forming a unique "ishiba line." he advocates adopting a more independent attitude in foreign affairs and defense, while promoting domestic economic policy reforms. shigeru ishiba adheres to the concept of "conservatism is tolerance". this kind of thinking not only gives great flexibility and pragmatism to foreign policy, but also emphasizes respect for diverse cultures and values, especially showing a tolerant and inclusive attitude when dealing with complex international relations. in terms of china policy, shigeru ishibashi partially recognized the "little japanism" proposed by ishibashi zhanshan, which is to avoid unnecessary confrontation through pragmatic foreign policy, especially to avoid military conflicts with major powers. he advocates safeguarding national interests through non-military means such as economic cooperation and cultural exchanges, which is highly consistent with his approach to handling sino-japanese relations.
ishiba's diplomatic philosophy is centered on pragmatism and utilitarianism, emphasizing that all policies should focus on national interests and develop strategies based on data and facts. he advocates that diplomacy should focus on practicality and long-term perspective and avoid being driven by ideology. although he believes that japan needs to maintain a certain degree of military restraint, relying solely on military means will lead to confrontation and security dilemmas. therefore, shigeru ishiba advocates transcending military games and establishing mutually beneficial and win-win relationships through economic, cultural, and social cooperation to promote lasting peace and development. whether shigeru ishiba can truly reshape the liberal democratic party is still full of suspense. although he has put forward a clear line of reforming the party structure, promoting transparent politics, and strengthening japan's independent diplomacy, it is still unknown whether these visions can be realized in the complex situation inside and outside the party. faced with the interest structure within the party and the domestic and foreign challenges facing japan, can shigeru ishiba successfully lead the liberal democratic party out of its predicament and ultimately reshape its party image? in the future political game, ishiba's determination to reform will be truly tested.
(wang pengfei, lecturer at tianjin normal university)
wang pengfei, staff writer for the paper
(this article is from the paper. for more original information, please download the “the paper” app)
