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thursday, september 26

today's important meeting was unexpectedly held during the trading session. the market rose in the afternoon, and the shanghai composite index rose again by 3% to regain 3,000 points. as of the close, the shanghai composite index rose 3.61% to 3,000.95 points, the shenzhen component index rose 4.44%, and the chinext index rose 4.42%. in terms of volume, a-shares traded 1.17 trillion yuan throughout the day, setting a new stage high, and there was a significant increase in volume in the afternoon.

on the market, many industries rose, led by food and beverage, real estate, and building materials. a total of 5,140 stocks in the market rose.

data source: wind. the listed increases and decreases are the increases and decreases in secondary market prices.

the political bureau meeting was held, releasing favorable policies and boosting market confidence. the securities etf (159745) rose by 6.35%. in addition, there have been many favorable policies for real estate recently, and the real estate chain has soared. the building materials etf (159745) rose by 10.1%.

on september 26, the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting and required that the counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies should be strengthened to ensure necessary fiscal expenditures and do a good job in the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level. it is necessary to issue and use ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds to better play the role of government investment in driving development.

regarding real estate, the politburo meeting proposed that we should promote the real estate market to stabilize, strictly control the increase in commercial housing construction, optimize the stock, improve the quality, increase the loan issuance of "white list" projects, and support the revitalization of idle land. we should respond to the concerns of the people, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, reduce the interest rate of existing mortgage loans, and speed up the improvement of land, fiscal and taxation, and financial policies to promote the construction of a new model of real estate development.

regarding the capital market, the political bureau meeting pointed out that efforts should be made to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium- and long-term funds into the market, and clear the bottlenecks for social security, insurance, and financial management funds to enter the market. it is necessary to support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, steadily advance the reform of public funds, and study and introduce policy measures to protect small and medium-sized investors.

the tone of this politburo meeting was positive. after the meeting, the signal of policies to boost the economy was strong, market confidence was boosted, and the market soared.

[recent favorable policies related to real estate]

on september 24, the state council information office held a press conference and answered questions from reporters. the relevant policies for the real estate industry include: 1) reducing the interest rates of existing mortgage loans. on may 17, 2024, the people's bank of china abolished the lower limit of the commercial loan interest rate for the first and second homes at the national level. the interest rate of newly issued loans was reduced by a larger margin on the basis of the market quoted interest rate, and the interest rate level dropped significantly, which once again widened the interest rate spread between new and old mortgage loans. in response, the people's bank of china intends to guide banks to make batch adjustments to the interest rates of existing mortgage loans, reducing the interest rates of existing mortgage loans to near the interest rates of newly issued loans, with an average decline of 0.5 percentage points.

2) unify the minimum down payment ratio for housing loans to 15%. on may 17, 2024, the people's bank of china adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second homes to no less than 15% and 25%, respectively. under this new policy, commercial personal housing loans at the national level will no longer distinguish between first and second homes, and the minimum down payment ratio will be unified at 15%.

3) extend the deadlines of two real estate financial policy documents. earlier, the people's bank of china and the financial regulatory bureau issued the "16 financial measures" and two policies on commercial property loans. the documents were originally scheduled to expire on december 31, 2024. this new policy will extend the deadlines of the two documents to the end of 2026, continuing to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and resolve real estate market risks.

4) optimize the refinancing policy for affordable housing. on may 17, 2024, the people's bank of china announced the establishment of 300 billion yuan of affordable housing refinancing, guiding financial institutions to support local state-owned enterprises in purchasing completed but unsold commercial housing at reasonable prices in accordance with market-oriented and rule-of-law principles for use as allocated or rented affordable housing.

【market outlook】

in terms of macro fundamentals, the fed’s unexpected 50bp rate cut in september means the start of a new policy cycle, which has certain signal significance. regardless of the magnitude and rhythm of subsequent rate cuts, the external liquidity disturbances and constraints will gradually decrease, the rmb exchange rate pressure will ease, and the domestic monetary policy space is expected to open up further.

with the ongoing countercyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments of macroeconomic policies, and the coordination of proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies, economic fundamentals are expected to further pick up, economic data are expected to further stabilize and improve, and market sentiment may return to being positive. you can pay attention to broad-based index products and seize the overall opportunity of market recovery, such as the shanghai composite index etf (510760). in terms of industries, you can pay appropriate attention to dividends and hong kong stocks that have fallen sharply in the previous period and are expected to improve, such as the dividend state-owned enterprise etf (510720) and the hong kong stock technology etf (513020).

【securities】

on september 20, 2024, the china securities regulatory commission revised and issued the "regulations on the calculation standards of risk control indicators for securities companies", which revised the calculation standards of risk control indicators in the securities industry in four directions: comprehensive risk coverage, prudent and strict supervision, improving the rationality of indicators, and promoting the functions of securities companies. this regulation is expected to open up space for securities companies to increase their leverage ratios and enhance their ability to activate the capital market. the recent introduction of multiple policies is expected to further regulate the development of the capital market and boost market confidence. the long-term positive trend of the capital market remains unchanged, which is also a certain benefit to the securities sector in the medium and long term.

the current valuation of the securities sector is relatively low. considering the securities sector's function in financing and serving the economy, as well as the role of wealth management in promoting the domestic cycle, the securities sector may have certain valuation recovery momentum in the future with relatively loose liquidity and policy dividends from capital market reforms. appropriate attention may be paid to the securities etf (512880).

however, at present, the performance of securities companies is under pressure due to the recent market pressure and volatility, and the confidence of individual investors may be temporarily weak. supervision emphasizes "strengthening the foundation" and "strict supervision and management", which will help enhance the inherent stability of the capital market and improve the concentration of the industry, but it may have a certain impact on the commission income of securities companies in the short term. weak fundamentals may bring volatility risks.

【building materials】

the building materials sector may face certain volatility risks due to the downturn in the real estate market in 2023 and the pressure on performance; however, in the second half of the year, the implementation of special bonds will drive the start of infrastructure projects, and the implementation of the state council's "action plan for promoting large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement" may boost demand for building materials. however, the current institutional holdings and valuations of the building materials sector are at a low level, so it is worth keeping a certain eye on it. if there are favorable real estate policies or a temporary recovery in demand, there may be a temporary rebound in flexibility.

risk warning:

this quick review has strived to be objective and fair in its content, but does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information. the views, conclusions and suggestions in this article are for reference only and do not represent any investment advice or commitment. the short-term rise and fall of industries or sectors is only used as auxiliary material for market analysis and is for reference only. it does not constitute investment advice or commitment.

the operation time of funds in my country is relatively short and cannot reflect all stages of stock market development. the fund manager promises to manage and use fund assets in accordance with the principles of honesty, trustworthiness, diligence and due diligence, but does not guarantee that the fund will make a profit or a minimum return. the past performance of the fund and its net value do not indicate its future performance. the fund manager reminds investors of the "buyer beware" principle of fund investment. after making an investment decision, the investment risks caused by the fund's operating conditions and changes in the fund's net value shall be borne by the investors themselves. funds are risky. during the purchase process, you should choose a fund that matches your risk identification and tolerance capabilities, and invest with caution.

investors should fully understand the difference between regular fixed-amount fund investment and savings methods such as lump-sum savings. regular fixed-amount investment is a simple and easy investment method that guides investors to make long-term investments and average investment costs. however, regular fixed-amount investment cannot avoid the risks inherent in fund investment, cannot guarantee investors' returns, and is not an equivalent financial management method to replace savings.

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