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spot gold broke through the $2,600 mark for the first time, continuing to hit a record high. since the beginning of this year, the international gold price has risen by more than 27%, and gold has become the most valuable investment product this year.

the continued tension in the geopolitical situation, coupled with the federal reserve's interest rate cut cycle, has pushed up the price of gold. against the backdrop of a sharp increase in global market volatility, gold has also achieved its safe-haven advantage.

as the federal reserve started to cut interest rates, the us dollar index continued to weaken. "when a whale falls, everything comes to life", the weakening of the us dollar has led to the continued strengthening of other investment products, and gold is also one of the beneficiaries.

according to the fed's dot plot analysis, the fed may cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year, which means that the fed's interest rate cuts have just begun and there may be further interest rate cuts within the year.

gold prices have surged by more than 27% this year, while the share price of kweichow moutai, known as "liquid gold," has fallen by 25% this year. the price of moutai liquor has also continued to fall, with both its stock price and product market price falling.

as of september 22, the price of a box of 2024 feitian moutai was 2,390 yuan per bottle, and the price of a loose bottle of 2024 feitian moutai was 2,270 yuan per bottle, down 30 yuan from the previous day.

the price of a loose bottle of feitian moutai fell below 2,300 yuan. the decline in consumer demand and changes in the supply and demand structure have led to a continued decline in the price of moutai.

faced with the continued weakening of moutai's price, kweichow moutai also announced a 3 billion to 6 billion stock repurchase plan to boost its stock price performance. however, in the face of the continued decline in moutai's price, whether the large-scale repurchase plan can hedge the risk of moutai's price decline remains to be seen.

from the analysis of historical price performance, gold and moutai have basically shown a trend of continuous upward movement. in the past 20 years, gold has experienced two bull markets and a bear market of about four years. moutai also experienced a bear market from 2013 to 2017. the trigger for the bear market was the plasticizer incident in liquor, which was a black swan event for the entire liquor industry.

to some extent, there are still some common characteristics in the price trends of gold and moutai.

today, the fed's interest rate cuts and the escalation of geopolitical tensions are good for gold and have driven up gold prices. however, moutai has weakened due to cooling consumer demand and the adjustment cycle of the liquor industry. however, the former is a recognized investment product in the global market, while the latter is mainly affected by the domestic market, with a low proportion of overseas income, and has not yet formed a truly global influence.

it is worth mentioning that gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, which means that holding it for a period of time will not generate any interest income or dividend income. as for moutai stock, it has a stable cash dividend every year. the current dividend rate has reached 4%. coupled with a large stock repurchase plan, moutai is still relatively ideal in terms of shareholder returns.

everything has its cycles, and gold and moutai are no exception. it’s just that the former is in an upward cycle, while the latter is in an adjustment cycle. when this cycle ends, the price performance of the two will be completely different.

in the upward trend, there is still a lot of uncertainty about when the gold price will peak. according to the price operation rules of the past 50 years, the gold bull market cycle is generally about 10 years. if we start counting from 2015, the gold bull market has gone through 9 years, which means that gold is getting closer to the 10-year bull market cycle.

as for moutai, whether its price has bottomed out depends on the price difference between the factory price and the market price. in the final analysis, it still depends on the actual market demand.

judging from the pricing patterns of moutai over the past two decades, the reasonable price difference between the ex-factory price and the market price is between 500 and 1,000 yuan. in 2021, this price difference was as high as 2,000 yuan. now it has dropped to around 1,100 yuan. the price difference is gradually returning to a reasonable level.

in 2014, the price difference between moutai's ex-factory price and market price was less than 300 yuan. the ex-factory price was 819 yuan, and the market price was less than 1,000 yuan. it can be seen that the investment demand and consumption demand in the market dropped to freezing point that year. the plasticizer incident in liquor that year had a great impact on the entire industry.

ten years later, moutai is once again facing the pressure of deep adjustment, but this time there is no black swan event, but the result of cooling consumer demand and weakening financial attributes of moutai. however, moutai still has the advantages of scarcity and irreplaceability, so after the price difference is compressed to a more reasonable level, when market investment sentiment and consumer confidence begin to recover, moutai may start a new round of upward cycle.