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many industries are in recession this year. in the rural area, the cultural tourism and homestay industries have been affected by the consumption situation and their income has generally dropped sharply. the common recruitment in the industry in previous years has also disappeared. among my friends, only a few friends in agriculture have been posting recruitment notices in recent months:some recruit people who are engaged in agronomy, some recruit people who are engaged in breeding research, and some recruit people who teach research in primary and secondary schools.

during field research, we also found that homestay and cultural tourism owners generally lack confidence. on the one hand, under the trend of consumption downgrade, homestay and cultural tourism that mainly target middle-class and family consumption have been hit hard. on the other hand, after the rapid growth of the industry in recent years, overcapacity has occurred in hot areas and has begun to involute.

a new batch of urban investors moving to the countryside have also sensitively felt this change. they are no longer focusing on the cultural tourism and homestay industries, but some have turned their attention to the agricultural sector.

for example, one of our members of the "urban and rural investors club" is a former senior executive of a leading real estate company. after following us to visit rural areas for a year and a half, he did not choose the familiar developed coastal areas and cultural and tourism hotspots, but instead plunged into the resource county in the northernmost part of guangxi and chose the most remote ethnic township in the mountainous area. using his own resources, he developed a high-quality agricultural product market in high-end communities in shenzhen, and directly faced farmers, planting according to orders and standards, and developing precision order agriculture.

｜ziyuan county in northern guangxi, a paradise on earth

he said: "although the scale is small, the risks are controllable... just take your time, agriculture is inherently slow." i am happy that he can switch from the hurried and high-end urban real estate thinking to the slower and more down-to-earth rural agricultural thinking.

why is it so difficult to upgrade consumption?

food, clothing, housing and transportation are the foundation of people's livelihood. after more than 40 years of reform and opening up, industrialization and urbanization have made great progress in clothing, housing and transportation, and the demand has been basically met. today, with income tightening, it is difficult for ordinary people to spend more money to upgrade clothing, housing and transportation, and the prices of consumer goods and assets in related industries are also falling. obviously, it is difficult to find an answer to consumption upgrading from these three aspects.

food is the most important thing for people, and the food, beverage, and catering industries have been relatively strong. chinese food culture has a long history. chinese people like to eat and are good at eating. whoever can come up with new ideas in eating will generally gain something. in my county survey, i also found that many traditional manufacturing industries have encountered difficulties, and only the food and beverage industries have been less affected and are still developing.

therefore, innovation in food is as important as innovation in clothing, housing, transportation, etc.

looking back at the development of consumption over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, roughly speaking:

in the first decade, the main focus was on solving the problem of "food".in the late 1970s and the first half of the 1980s, the state distributed land to farmers, which mobilized farmers' enthusiasm, and vigorously promoted fertilizers and pesticides, achieving the achievement of "7% of the world's arable land feeding 22% of the world's population". during the same period, township enterprises developed rapidly, with an average annual output growth rate of more than 30%. by the early 1990s, the national industrial output value accounted for "one-third of the world". under this circumstance, farmers resumed the localized "half-agriculture and half-industry" economic mode, and their income grew rapidly. in the mid-1980s, it exceeded the income growth of urban residents for four consecutive years. rural consumption once accounted for more than 60% of the total retail sales of social goods, and a "housing fever" was set off. china once experienced "golden growth driven by domestic demand".

in the second decade, the main focus will be on upgrading light industrial consumption represented by clothing and household appliances.since the late 1980s, the country has shifted its economic focus to cities and their state-owned enterprises. state-owned enterprise reform and urban high-tech parks (the "spark plan" implemented in the 1980s to support township enterprises) have been rapidly promoted. in 1993, the country officially abolished food stamps, marking the abolition of the national policy restricting farmers from moving to cities, a wave of migrant workers emerged, and light industry exploded.

in the third decade, after entering the 21st century, the reform of state-owned enterprises was completed, china joined the wto, industrial products went global, and "housing" represented by real estate and infrastructure investment became the main theme of economic development.in the fourth decade, the economic highlights of the 2010s shifted to mobile internet and new energy. mobile internet brought people closer together, and new energy vehicles solved the problem of "travel" for the general public, making cars truly popular. everyone is familiar with this process, so there is no need to elaborate.

a brief review of china's consumption upgrade process shows an obvious gradual upgrade of "food-clothing (light industry)-housing-transportation".today, the basic consumption needs of chinese people have been met. who is most likely to be the next point of consumption upgrade?

obviously, housing is too expensive and it is difficult to upgrade in the short term. china's public transportation is well developed and cars have just become popular, but they cannot bear the burden. clothing and a large number of light industrial overcapacity are even more difficult to bear. only food has the greatest possibility of bearing a new round of consumption upgrades!

on the other hand, compared with the high satisfaction with clothing, housing and transportation, the chinese people’s demand for upgraded food consumption has long been unmet.

the first is basic food safety.

this year alone, there has been an endless stream of news about hot, difficult and sensitive incidents such as the "trough meat incident", "tanker truck carrying kerosene as edible oil", "sulfur exceeding the standard in wolfberries", and "collective poisoning due to braised chicken and rice at workplaces", as well as food safety issues that have frequently occurred on major live-streaming e-commerce platforms.

for a long time, various additives, preservatives, bulking agents, chemical treatments, and low-cost food safety crimes have been plaguing the lives of the chinese people, but no effective mechanism has been established.

the second is the issue of dependence on fossil agriculture.

a major feature of modern agriculture is the extensive use of fossil resources, such as pesticides, fertilizers, and hormones. although this ensures yield and appearance, there is a lack of limited supervision in the fields and during transportation, leading to widespread abuse.

firstly, it harms the health of consumers. secondly, excessive application leads to soil compaction and decreased fertility. in order to maintain crop yields, the application amount has to be further increased, creating a vicious cycle. thirdly, under the fossil agriculture model, the cost of pesticides, fertilizers, seedlings, and labor continues to rise, causing agricultural operations to become less and less profitable and increasingly dependent on government subsidies, but ultimately becoming less and less competitive.

the chinese people are dissatisfied with this, but they can do nothing about it. safe and healthy agricultural products are increasingly becoming the demand of consumers.

then there is the question of eating well.

in addition to the experience of color, aroma and taste, the essence of food is mainly how protein is transformed from plants to animals and finally to human absorption, and how it is efficiently converted in the middle. all of these must ultimately be derived from the plants and land at the source. "what kind of land there is, what kind of people there will be, and what kind of society there will be."

obviously, our land and crop production have been destroyed for a long time in the process of over-emphasizing industrialization and pursuing output. the nutrients and elements in many foods have been largely transformed by chemical industries, and the final source of nutrition has shifted to chemicals and chemical additives.

eating is always the most direct and biggest necessity. in this context, safe, efficient and high-quality modern agriculture is increasingly becoming the next outlet for consumption upgrades and rural revitalization!

here we need to distinguish a misunderstanding, that is, over-equating agricultural modernization with agricultural industrialization.in fact, except for large plains such as northeast china, north china, and the huanghuai plain, as well as grassland animal husbandry areas, agricultural operations in many parts of china are difficult to industrialize due to restrictions on natural conditions such as terrain, water and soil.

｜hometown hilly area agriculture

on the other hand, from the national perspective, grain and major agricultural products are not purely market attributes, but have always been the country's "semi-public goods". therefore, it is necessary to control quantity and price and keep major agricultural products in a state of slight profit.

in reality, with fossil agriculture and the sharp rise in labor costs, as well as uncontrollable market and natural disaster risks, farmers can easily lose money. grain and major agricultural products have always been positioned between commodities and public goods. this fact cannot be changed, and if a breakthrough path cannot be found in the market, the development prospects of chinese agriculture and farmers will remain limited.

just as we think of urbanization when we talk about the three rural issues, another trap in china's agricultural development is to simplify agricultural issues into food issues and issues of increasing agricultural investment.

ensuring food security is a must, but only emphasizing "grain as the key link" and continuing to widen the imbalance between supply and demand will also bring additional burdens. in the 1990s, there was a "four consecutive increases in grain production", which led to a series of macroeconomic problems such as excessive state fiscal subsidies and inventory costs, and bank occupation.

after entering the new century, the three rural issues were simplified to increasing agricultural investment, resulting in "twelve consecutive increases in grain production", so that the ministry of finance had to announce a reduction in agricultural subsidies.

today, in addition to grain, china ranks first in the world in the production of many major agricultural products: we produce about 70% of the world's freshwater products, 67% of vegetables, 51% of live pigs, and 40% of major fruits. however, due to the one-sided pursuit of efficiency, output, scale and low cost, the abuse of pesticides, fertilizers, growth hormones, preservatives and antiseptics has led to the decline of soil fertility, food safety, water pollution (china's agriculture is the largest source of water pollution) and seed chips. problems continue to accumulate, from grain to major agricultural products, market competitiveness has always been low.

my idea is that, under the premise of land system, arable land red line and ensuring basic food security, national financial subsidies should be graded and tilted towards the main producing areas of grain and major agricultural products to strengthen their "public goods"; and then promote the marketization and quality of agriculture in non-main producing areas and rural areas around large cities, so as to achieve the common development of "public goods agriculture" and market-oriented agriculture.

the fundamental method of marketization is not top-down "industrialization" but decentralized breakthrough from bottom to top.

let me share two short stories.

dadaosha island in the suburbs of guangzhou is located in the pearl river. it is an island formed by alluvial deposits and reclamation. there is little land on the island, and it was mainly leased to merchants to plant flowers and gardens in the past. guangzhou zhonglian industry built a small reception farm on the island decades ago. in 2018, zhonglian industry established a wholly-owned subsidiary xiyue agriculture with it as a prototype, taking the popular route of agricultural tourism complex, but it is difficult to break through due to its small scale and insufficient resource endowment.

in 2021, the founder is determined to lead xiyue agriculture back to the core of agriculture. they transfer farmers' arable land, sublease some garden land at a high price, and return forest to farmland. at present, the farm has formed a scale of 230 acres, including more than 30 acres of rice fields, more than ten acres of corn, tomatoes, sweet potatoes and other crops, but it is still not large-scale. how to make it distinctive?their strategy is to delve deeper into agriculture and move towards branded operations.

the first step is to build an “agricultural science park”.they cooperated with the academy of agricultural sciences, introduced professional talents, and built agricultural science demonstrations with agricultural facilities, crop varieties, planting methods, biotechnology, and agricultural informatization as the core. for example, the 11-acre tomato field is small, but more than ten varieties such as golden fruit, yellow pear, and qingxia 66 are carefully cultivated and planted, some of which are only available in the guangzhou market.

they use organic planting and traditional crop rotation methods, and their products are exclusively sold to mid- to high-end community supermarkets. for example, a box of "colorful tomatoes" of different varieties, colorful and cute, is priced at 30 yuan (2 kilograms), and the supply is in short supply. similarly, "happy rice" and "small island sweet potatoes" have also been made into "dadao saudi specialties."

second, do a “crop display”.if agriculture is solid, parent-child and research education can be done well. they are based on agriculture, set up a professional team for youth growth and children's education, combined with the dadaosha reclamation culture and tanka culture, and developed a variety of farming-themed courses, as well as agricultural laboratories, farming experiences, agricultural summer camps and other activities. its market value has been rapidly magnified.

then, brand operation.with agriculture as the foundation and education as the core, we will create an urban agricultural park that integrates agricultural scientific research, agricultural creativity, agricultural product exhibition and sales, research and popular science, tourism and other functions, and integrate them into the "crop kingdom" brand. chen jianneng, general manager of xiyue agriculture, said that they plan to seek external cooperation to develop the tertiary industry, while he and the core team will stick to agriculture and education, and consolidate and promote the "crop kingdom" brand through agricultural scientific research and independent market research and development.

in the future, xiyue agriculture will be committed to empowering brand and market operation capabilities and building a "farm alliance".in recent years, most small and medium-sized farms and family farms in china have been in trouble due to problems such as land size, policies and consumption downgrade. xiyue agriculture is committed to building a brand empowerment + "agricultural alliance" model with agriculture + education as the core, which can solve the contradiction between small and medium-sized agricultural operators and large-scale marketization. a small traditional farm, in the midst of the rural revitalization trend, can also make great achievements by changing its thinking.

the second story comes from tianmu orchard in jinshan district, shanghai.

this orchard is only 160 mu, mainly planting peaches, with an annual output of 3,000 to 4,000 kilograms per mu, and an annual output of 200 to 300 tons, which is not an industry. however, the peaches they produce are sold individually, ranging from 20 yuan to 60 yuan, and are exclusively supplied to high-end postpartum care centers and hong kong hui department store in shanghai, which is more expensive than the famous "japanese sky-high-priced fruit"!

in 2003, founder wang weiguo came to shanghai and started large-scale planting, hoping to achieve an output of 10,000 kilograms per mu through the use of fertilizers and pesticides. as the data gradually approached the goal, he found that the peaches he produced were not tasty, could not be sold at a high price, and the quality was getting worse year by year, and the business was getting worse and worse.

in 2008, wang weiguo went to japan for an inspection, where he ate high-quality japanese peaches and met a japanese-chinese nutrition expert. when fellow villagers met, wang weiguo humbly asked for advice, and the expert taught him everything he knew and gave him a bionic plant protection water source processor.

wang weiguo did not follow the popular organic farming. “organic is not necessarily nutritious,” he said. with the guidance of experts and his own long-term thinking, he realized that the key to successful agriculture is actually “real materials” - the key to materials is fertilizer, and the key to fertilizer lies in the ratio of elements, as well as the overall environment and microbial conditions.

the source of environmental change is this bionic plant protection water source processor. this machine ionizes water and then sprays it at fixed times every day according to natural solar terms (it continues to spray even on rainy days) to slowly change the orchard environment.

then, he used cow dung as the base, added corresponding nutrients, and added natural water and fertilizer from crops such as banana water and water spinach. after secondary fermentation by microorganisms, he cultivated a nutritionally balanced and stable fertilizer.

in his long-term practice, wang weiguo constantly summarized the laws of soil and crop growth. he found that the peach tree roots penetrated different depths of the soil, absorbed different minerals, and the corresponding insect and disease resistance effects were different.

however, due to geological reasons, the root system of most peach trees in the jiangnan region can only reach 30 centimeters. to achieve insect and pest resistance, large amounts of pesticides and fertilizers can only be applied. to this end, he invented a drainage system that directly drains water into the impermeable deep layer to promote the growth of peach trees to a depth of 60 centimeters or more, so that they can absorb the corresponding elements and spontaneously develop insect and pest resistance.

in addition, in his peach orchard, we can see that the grass under the peach trees grows very tall. according to the industrial point of view, herbicides should be used to prevent weeds from competing for fertilizer.but his point of view is the opposite. one of the reasons is that if there is grass under the peach tree, the insects will feel at ease to nest under the peach tree and eat the grass, without having to climb up the peach tree to eat the leaves, and the insect pest will be further solved.

during more than ten years of operation, he continued to cut down trees (updating tree species), insisted on branded operations (tianmu orchard brand), controlled the scale, selected channels, and slowly led farmers to accept his ideas, gradually embarking on his own path of modern scientific agriculture!

only with a healthy concept and a healthy environment can healthy and nutritious crops be produced. focusing on agriculture, the tianmu orchard, which produces products in accordance with japanese food nutrition standards, has surpassed japan in most indicators, and its taste is also refreshing! with his love for agriculture and continuous research, wang weiguo was also hired as one of the first national forestry and grass local experts and "rural practical talent leader". in 2023, wang weiguo's son, who studied finance in singapore, returned to shanghai and joined his business. the father and son worked together to realize the dream of a metropolitan paradise, which also became a good story...

there are actually many different agricultural practices, including the therapeutic agriculture practiced by wang weiguo, the "agricultural science park" practiced by the crop kingdom, the contract farming practiced by investor members, and the ecological agriculture, natural farming, csa community supported agriculture, senior boutique agriculture, sightseeing/study agriculture, etc. that i have introduced in many articles.

it doesn't have to be a big industry. as more and more agricultural workers take root in the land, they will have more and more confidence. modern agriculture has a promising future!

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no.5973 original first article | author liu zi

about the author: columnist, rural revitalization & county economics scholar, initiator of the "rural builders' club", member of the rural revitalization committee of the china tourism association. author of books such as "renewal - 40 years of liu yonghao and new hope", one of the "rural trilogy" - "china on the land" is about to be published, please pay attention. personal public account: liu zi's private plot.

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